1123 N Carey St · Baltimore, MD 21217

$149,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 871 sqft · Townhouse · 45 Days on market

Built 1920 871 sqft lot $171/sqft · 43% above area Est $104k · 43% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

AGENTS - PLEASE VIEW AGENT REMARKS IN BRIGHT MLS. Beautifully Renovated 5-Bedroom Colonial in Arlington, Baltimore! Here’s your chance to own a spacious, fully updated 5-bedroom, 2-bath Colonial in Arlington, one of Baltimore’s most promising and revitalizing neighborhoods. This home delivers modern design, generous space, and unbeatable value—a rare find in today’s market. Step inside and experience a bright, open layout with a modern floor plan that effortlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas—perfect for entertaining or family gatherings. The home features brand-new flooring, recessed lighting, and tasteful updates throughout, offering both co

Key facts

• Built 1920
• Listed 44 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $391 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,657/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 2921% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $2k; list at $149k implies a 9833% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.24%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $104,462
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: 42.64%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1121 Mckean Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0	792 (-9%)	1mo	$40,000	$51	64
920 N Fulton Ave Unit P	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	839 (-4%)	12mo	$54,000	$64	59
1516 N Gilmor St	0.39mi	3/1.0	990 (+14%)	10mo	$50,000	$51	51
1551 N Fulton Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	925 (+6%)	19mo	$96,000	$104	46
1611 N Fulton Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+15%)	15mo	$105,000	$105	38
2219 Eutaw Pl #3	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (+15%)	7mo	$170,000	$170	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $6,979
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $65,687
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21217

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,657 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $893/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,162

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $475	-5% $433	+0% $391	+5% $349	+10% $307
Rent	-10% $260	-5% $325	+0% $391	+5% $456	+10% $522
Rate	-1.0pp $466	-0.5pp $429	base $391	+0.5pp $352	+1.0pp $313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1346 N Carey St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	45d	1	0.18mi
1339 W Lafayette Ave #1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	700	$1,600	$2.29	13d	1	0.22mi
1534 N Stricker St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	900	$1,475	$1.64	16d	1	0.35mi
1315 Harlem Ave Unit C Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,425	$1.58	45d	1	0.37mi
1315 Harlem Ave Unit B Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,425	$1.58	25d	1	0.37mi
1562 N Woodyear St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	788	$1,325	$1.68	25d	1	0.37mi
1614 N Calhoun St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	45d	1	0.41mi
1645 N Calhoun St Apt 202 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	650	$1,199	$1.84	45d	1	0.43mi
1920 McCulloh St Apt 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	45d	1	0.46mi
1909 McCulloh St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	717	$1,300	$1.81	25d	1	0.48mi
1931 McCulloh St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	45d	1	0.49mi
2143 Druid Hill Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	915	$1,400	$1.53	45d	1	0.50mi
2037 McCulloh St Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	937	$1,650	$1.76	19d	1	0.51mi
1524 Madison Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	25d	1	0.54mi
1110 Shields Pl Unit 1129 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	45d	1	0.55mi
1409 McCulloh St Unit McCulloh UA Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,550	$1.44	45d	1	0.55mi
1624 Westwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	45d	1	0.57mi
1729 N Fulton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1081	$1,795	$1.66	45d	1	0.59mi
1722 N Monroe St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,350	$1.35	25d	1	0.66mi
2433 Druid Hill Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1092	$1,999	$1.83	45d	1	0.70mi
2016 Linden Ave Unit B Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	700	$1,400	$2.00	25d	1	0.70mi
2614 Pennsylvania Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	982	$1,141	$1.16	5d	4	0.71mi
2449 Druid Hill Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	45d	1	0.72mi
1515 Retreat St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1098	$1,800	$1.64	25d	1	0.73mi
1722 Bolton St Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	942	$1,600	$1.70	5d	1	0.73mi
1507 Retreat St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1098	$2,500	$2.28	45d	1	0.74mi
2636 Pennsylvania Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	846	$956	$1.13	25d	4	0.75mi
1714 Park Ave #202 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	25d	1	0.78mi
307 Dolphin St Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	732	$2,149	$2.94	19d	3	0.79mi
1123 N Eutaw St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,582	$1.50	5d	4	0.80mi
2301 Riggs Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1072	$1,600	$1.49	25d	1	0.81mi
2202 Brookfield Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	980	$1,600	$1.63	45d	1	0.82mi
2511 Madison Ave #2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	45d	1	0.83mi
1729 Park Ave Unit 4 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	900	$1,725	$1.92	5d	1	0.83mi
1930 N Payson St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	25d	1	0.84mi
101 N Schroeder St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$3,185	$3.07	3d	12	0.86mi
823 Newington Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	913	$1,700	$1.86	19d	1	0.86mi
750 Reservoir St Unit A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,650	$1.83	45d	1	0.88mi
750 Reservoir St Unit B Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	900	$1,850	$2.06	45d	1	0.88mi
2401 Brookfield Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1102	$1,675	$1.52	25d	3	0.92mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    listed $150,000 Active
16. 2026-05-07
    historical
17. 2026-04-03
    price $265,000
18. 2026-03-28
    price $267,000
19. 2026-01-15
    status Active
20. 2025-12-31
    historical
21. 2025-12-16
    price $267,500
22. 2025-11-18
    price $267,900
23. 2025-10-24
    status Active
24. 2025-01-09
    historical
25. 2024-12-05
    listed $269,900 Active
26. 2024-11-21
    historical
27. 2023-06-08
    historical
28. 2023-04-06
    status Active
29. 2023-04-04
    listed $139,000
30. 2023-04-04
    historical
31. 2022-12-08
    historical
32. 2022-10-07
    price $129,000
33. 2022-08-16
    price $129,250
34. 2022-07-26
    price $129,500
35. 2022-07-11
    price $129,700
36. 2022-07-06
    price $129,750
37. 2022-06-30
    price $130,000
38. 2022-03-18
    price $132,000
39. 2022-01-11
    price $137,000
40. 2021-12-15
    status Active
41. 2021-12-05
    historical
42. 2021-12-02
    listed $139,000 Active
43. 2019-03-29
    soldstatus $1,500
44. 2016-02-19
    historical Withdrawn
45. 2016-02-19
    historical
46. 2016-01-27
    price
47. 2015-12-11
    listed Active
48. 2015-12-11
    listed $10,000
49. 2015-11-03
    historical
50. 2015-10-07
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $893 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,258 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$366/yr (+$30/mo · 41.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,879
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$893
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,590
• − Management: −$1,590
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $2,380
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$571
• After-tax cash flow: $4,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 30,792
• Household income: $38,409
• Rent vs Own: 70.0% rent · 30.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2921.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 81% White 12% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Hispanic 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.20%
• Current HPI: 104.2102
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.63%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+534.0% since first listed

47 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $149,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $265,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $267,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-15 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $267,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $267,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-24 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-09 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-05 Listed $269,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-21 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-06-08 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-06 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-04 Listed $139,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-12-08 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-07 Price Changed $129,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-08-16 Price Changed $129,250 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-07-26 Price Changed $129,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-07-11 Price Changed $129,700 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-07-06 Price Changed $129,750 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-06-30 Price Changed $130,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-03-18 Price Changed $132,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-01-11 Price Changed $137,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-12-15 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-12-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-12-02 Listed $139,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $1,500 Public Records
• 2016-02-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-02-19 Delisted — MRIS
• 2016-01-27 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2015-12-11 Listed — MRIS
• 2015-12-11 Listed $10,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-11-03 Delisted — MRIS
• 2015-10-07 Listed — MRIS
• 2002-06-28 Sold (MLS) $3,000 MRIS
• 2002-06-26 Delisted — MRIS
• 2001-08-09 Listed $2,900 MRIS
• 2001-07-20 Delisted — MRIS
• 2000-12-20 Listed — MRIS
• 2000-12-20 Delisted — MRIS
• 2000-12-20 Listed — MRIS
• 1999-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1997-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1996-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $23,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $893 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.