463 San Miguel Creek Dr · Katy, TX 77493

$311,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · Land · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW! Lennar Core Watermill Collection "Oxford" Plan with Brick Elevation "J3" in Freeman Ranch! This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $312k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-256 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $244,738 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.51%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-73,954
• Equity at exit: $46,519

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-112,851
• Equity at exit: $26,975

Cash invested: $87,357 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2696
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,447 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,636
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$390 /mo · $4,680/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,771

Max offer price $274,995

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,998
• Closing costs: $9,360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
401 San Miguel Creek Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1579	$1,945	$1.23	3d	1	0.16mi
435 Lone Rider Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,895	$1.40	43d	1	0.16mi
452 Texas Pecan Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,995	$1.31	24d	1	0.26mi
116 Thorton Vine Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1621	$1,929	$1.19	2d	1	0.85mi
3004 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,942	$1.32	43d	1	1.00mi
3037 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	24d	1	1.05mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	24d	1	1.06mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	12d	1	1.07mi
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,252	$1.37	24d	1	1.08mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	24d	1	1.10mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	24d	1	1.12mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	12d	1	1.13mi
3071 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	24d	1	1.13mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	12d	1	1.14mi
3083 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,185	$1.42	12d	1	1.15mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$3,850	$1.79	43d	1	1.22mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$2,762	$1.28	10d	1	1.22mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	3d	1	1.30mi
3056 Sea Turtle Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	43d	1	1.33mi
3064 Dawn Sound Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,950	$1.33	43d	1	1.35mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	15d	1	1.38mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	24d	1	1.40mi
3072 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,550	$1.12	22d	1	1.42mi
3081 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	24d	1	1.43mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	12d	1	1.44mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	24d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   NEW! Lennar Core Watermill Collection "Oxford" Plan with Brick Elevation "J3" in Freeman Ranch! This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

2. 2026-05-11
   price $311,990 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   NEW! Lennar Core Watermill Collection "Oxford" Plan with Brick Elevation "J3" in Freeman Ranch! This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

3. 2026-05-07
   price $252,290 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   NEW! Lennar Core Watermill Collection "Oxford" Plan with Brick Elevation "J3" in Freeman Ranch! This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

4. 2026-05-04
   price $256,690 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   NEW! Lennar Core Watermill Collection "Oxford" Plan with Brick Elevation "J3" in Freeman Ranch! This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

5. 2026-04-27
   price $265,390 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   NEW! Lennar Core Watermill Collection "Oxford" Plan with Brick Elevation "J3" in Freeman Ranch! This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

6. 2026-04-21
   listed $273,990 Active 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   NEW! Lennar Core Watermill Collection "Oxford" Plan with Brick Elevation "J3" in Freeman Ranch! This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,369
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,476
• − Property taxes: −$4,680
• − Insurance: −$1,560
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,349
• − Management: −$2,349
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$9,076
• Taxable loss: −$8,519
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,044
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,023/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+13.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $311,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $252,290 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $256,690 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $265,390 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $273,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+20.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $588 · +20.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.