21112 Braxfield Loop · Estero, FL 33928

$380,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,779 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2003 7,544 sqft lot Est $509k · 25% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location in Stoneybrook with views of the Golf Course. Easy access to I75 and surrounding area. Just over 1700 sq ft with three bedrooms and two baths. Open floor plan.

Key facts

• 7,544 sq ft lot
• Built 2003
• Listed 13 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: House
• Exterior features: Lot of approximately 7,544 sq ft

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $380k).
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,874/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 606% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $106k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $316k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $380,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.69%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $508,794
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21216 Waymouth Run	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,713 (-4%)	15mo	$490,000	$286	66
21282 Braxfield Loop	0.32mi	3/2.0	2,011 (+13%)	11mo	$525,000	$261	54
21592 Berwhich Run	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,663 (-6%)	6mo	$525,000	$316	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $43,821
• Equity at exit: $56,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $129,918
• Equity at exit: $32,855

Cash invested: $106,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,874 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax from tax record: −$566 /mo · $6,796/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,233
• Net cashflow: $1,923

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,440

Max offer price $380,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,000
• Closing costs: $11,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21300 Lancaster Run #926 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1360	$2,200	$1.62	10d	1	0.23mi
21330 Lancaster Run Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1225	$2,300	$1.88	23d	2	0.29mi
21330 Lancaster Run #1218 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1225	$2,500	$2.04	21d	1	0.29mi
20310 Calice Ct #1202 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1569	$5,500	$3.51	23d	1	0.46mi
20271 Calice Ct #2304 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2009	$10,500	$5.23	23d	1	0.49mi
20161 Seagrove St #108 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1655	$5,995	$3.62	23d	1	0.55mi
20161 Seagrove St #102 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1702	$6,000	$3.53	23d	1	0.55mi
20151 Seagrove St #206 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1735	$6,000	$3.46	23d	1	0.57mi
20150 Seagrove St #2701 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	1856	$2,895	$1.56	15d	1	0.59mi
21489 Sheridan Run Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1645	$10,000	$6.08	23d	1	0.63mi
20240 Burnside Pl #1603 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	1656	$5,995	$3.62	23d	1	0.69mi
20101 Seagrove St #708 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$5,995	$4.19	23d	1	0.71mi
20187 Buttermere Ct Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2490	$10,995	$4.42	23d	1	0.81mi
19520 Highland Oaks Dr Estero, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,720	$2.78	1d	18	0.82mi
20112 Saraceno Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2107	$10,750	$5.10	23d	1	0.82mi
20051 Seagrove St #1202 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1567	$5,995	$3.83	23d	1	0.85mi
20092 Palermo Lake Ct Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1975	$7,995	$4.05	23d	1	0.86mi
20091 Palermo Lake Ct Estero, FL	4.0	2.5	2483	$10,950	$4.41	23d	1	0.88mi
20057 Saraceno Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1848	$7,000	$3.79	23d	1	0.90mi
20053 Saraceno Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2045	$8,995	$4.40	23d	1	0.91mi
20099 Seadale Ct Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2079	$5,500	$2.65	23d	1	0.91mi
20083 Seadale Ct Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1981	$10,500	$5.30	23d	1	0.94mi
21565 Windham Run Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1947	$3,000	$1.54	23d	1	0.99mi
12595 Grandezza Cir Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1649	$10,500	$6.37	23d	1	1.02mi
20623 Fair Oak Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2135	$3,800	$1.78	23d	1	1.06mi
20651 Wildcat Run Dr #101 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1624	$3,495	$2.15	23d	1	1.10mi
20202 Ainsley St Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2135	$4,200	$1.97	3d	1	1.28mi
20187 Ainsley St Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2135	$3,500	$1.64	15d	1	1.33mi
20257 Royal Villagio Ct Estero, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1364	$2,300	$1.69	3d	2	1.42mi
20257 Royal Villagio Ct #202 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,300	$1.50	23d	1	1.42mi
21301 S Branch Blvd Estero, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1510	$4,670	$3.09	1d	12	1.46mi
19649 Aqua View Ln Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2178	$6,000	$2.75	23d	1	1.49mi
19649 Aqua View Ln Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2178	$8,500	$3.90	15d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $380,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $380,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $380,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $380,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $380,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   remarks 211-char remark
7. 2026-06-07
   listed $380,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,796 · $566/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,796 · $566/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 32 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $70,485
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,286
• − Property taxes: −$6,796
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,639
• − Management: −$5,639
• − Depreciation: −$11,055
• Taxable income: $18,171
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,361
• After-tax cash flow: $18,713/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-8.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $380,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-10-20 Rental Removed $2,995 APPFOLIO
• 2025-10-11 Listed for Rent $2,995 APPFOLIO
• 2025-08-06 Rental Removed $2,895 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-06-19 Listed for Rent $2,895 SHOWMOJO
• 2023-09-04 Rental Removed $3,195 APPFOLIO
• 2023-08-13 Price Changed $3,195 APPFOLIO
• 2017-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $316,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-04 Price Changed $316,000 BEARMLS
• 2017-03-30 Price Changed $325,000 BEARMLS
• 2012-08-01 Sold (MLS) $192,900 FORTMLS
• 2006-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $415,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,796 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.