7240 W Willow Fishhook Rd · Willow, AK 99688

$169,900

1 bd · None ba · 480 sqft · Other public records · 240 Days on market

Built 2017 13 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled on 13.35 picturesque acres along Willow Creek, this unique property offers a true escape from the ordinary. With a dry cabin perched on the far side of the creek, accessing it is an adventure in itself—cross the river via a thrilling zip line for a one-of-a-kind experience. A portion of the land is conveniently located on the roadside, providing easy access for vehicles. Whether you're an avid hunter or someone who enjoys the serenity of nature, this property offers an ideal setting, with ample space to roam and explore. The area is also perfect for outdoor enthusiasts, located near both winter and summer trails, ensuring year-round recreation. If you're looking for a blend of adventure, privacy, and natural beauty, this land is a rare find. The cabin comes fully furnished with everything you need to immerse yourself in the great outdoors, offering both comfort and convenience for your adventures. Buyer and Buyer's representative to verify all info herein.

Key facts

• Roadside access
• Dry cabin
• 13.35 acres

Tags

• 13.35 ACRES
• DRY CABIN
• ZIP LINE
• ROADSIDE ACCESS
• WINTER AND SUMMER TRAILS
• FULLY FURNISHED CABIN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath other listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.1% in Willow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#86 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willow Elementary (math 54% / reading 64%, grade B-, #22 of 156 statewide, top 14%, 135 students, 65% FRL); Houston Middle School (329 students, 0% FRL); Houston High School (math 22% / reading 31%, grade F, #41 of 61 statewide, top 67%, 358 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 219 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $698 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-477 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,660 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.22%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-12,869
• Equity at exit: $46,962

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,093
• Equity at exit: $54,591

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99688

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,187 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $762/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $-88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,298

Max offer price $154,381

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $8	-5% $-40	+0% $-88	+5% $-136	+10% $-184
Rent	-10% $-182	-5% $-135	+0% $-88	+5% $-41	+10% $6
Rate	-1.0pp $-2	-0.5pp $-45	base $-88	+0.5pp $-132	+1.0pp $-177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $169,900 Active 240 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 237 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 236 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 235 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 234 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 232 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 231 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,900 Active 229 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 228 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 227 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 226 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 222 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 221 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 220 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 219 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,900 Active 218 DOM
17. 2025-10-23
    listed $169,900 Active 985-char remark

    Show marketing remark (985 chars)

    Nestled on 13.35 picturesque acres along Willow Creek, this unique property offers a true escape from the ordinary. With a dry cabin perched on the far side of the creek, accessing it is an adventure in itself—cross the river via a thrilling zip line for a one-of-a-kind experience. A portion of the land is conveniently located on the roadside, providing easy access for vehicles. Whether you're an avid hunter or someone who enjoys the serenity of nature, this property offers an ideal setting, with ample space to roam and explore. The area is also perfect for outdoor enthusiasts, located near both winter and summer trails, ensuring year-round recreation. If you're looking for a blend of adventure, privacy, and natural beauty, this land is a rare find. The cabin comes fully furnished with everything you need to immerse yourself in the great outdoors, offering both comfort and convenience for your adventures. Buyer and Buyer's representative to verify all info herein.

18. 2008-09-15
    listed $29,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $762 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,392 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$630/yr (+$52/mo · 82.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,239
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$762
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,139
• − Management: −$1,139
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$4,110
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$986
• After-tax cash flow: $-68/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Willow

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #86
• US rank: #19315

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willow, AK
• City population: 2,542
• Population (ZIP): 2,542

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 5% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.28%
• Current HPI: 168.6582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+479.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-23 Listed $169,900 AKMLS
• 2008-09-15 Listed $29,300 AKMLS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $762 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.