35631 Lowery Trl · Zephyrhills, FL 33541

$565,000

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,561 sqft · SingleFamily · 176 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition 7,242 sqft lot Garage $90/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The property is located at 35631 Lowery Trail ZEPHYRHILLS FL 33541 priced at 619990, the square foot and stories are 3561, 2.The number of bath is 3, halfbath is 1 there are 5 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

Key facts

• 7,242 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Tags

• HAMMOCK AT TWO RIVERS

🏗️ New construction. The $565,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $825,271.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $565k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-24k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $538k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $498k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $497k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Raymond B. Stewart Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 988 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 1141 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,983/mo this rent would consume 106% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 24% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($497k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $105k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $497,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.64%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $825,271
• List price: $565,000
• Delta: -30.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1626 Fallon Pass	0.60mi	5/4.5	3,575 (+0%)	4mo	$683,460	$191	63
1691 Valier Pt	0.66mi	5/4.5	3,598 (+1%)	1mo	$697,080	$194	63
34780 Lowery Trl	0.61mi	5/4.5	3,575 (+0%)	5mo	$634,880	$178	63
34746 Lowery Trl	0.63mi	5/4.5	3,575 (+0%)	6mo	$679,310	$190	61
1370 Shields Pt	0.66mi	5/4.5	3,793 (+6%)	2mo	$684,990	$181	53
1545 Trailhead Ln	0.69mi	5/4.5	3,835 (+8%)	2mo	$749,999	$196	50
1708 Valier Pt	0.68mi	5/4.5	3,796 (+7%)	4mo	$734,980	$194	50
1017 Chasehill Ln	0.63mi	5/3.5	3,975 (+12%)	2mo	$675,390	$170	50
35172 Colstrip Trl	0.57mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,297 (-7%)	9mo	$691,550	$210	49
1599 Valier Pt	0.57mi	5/4.0	4,083 (+15%)	5mo	$753,340	$185	43
1558 Trailhead Ln	0.72mi	5/4.0	3,053 (-14%)	1mo	$539,000	$177	40
34708 Lowery Trl	0.67mi	5/5.0	3,964 (+11%)	8mo	$701,750	$177	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-274,363
• Equity at exit: $123,051

10-year hold

• IRR: -81.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.98×
• Total profit: $-457,054
• Equity at exit: $71,354

Cash invested: $231,076 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 61 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.3 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $639,999 ($197/sqft)
• Median days on market: 178 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 1141
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,983 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,328
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,032 /mo · $12,379/yr
• Insurance: −$344
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,046
• Net cashflow: $-1,982

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,492

Max offer price $538,463

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,412	-5% $-1,697	+0% $-1,982	+5% $-2,267	+10% $-2,552
Rent	-10% $-2,376	-5% $-2,179	+0% $-1,982	+5% $-1,785	+10% $-1,588
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,566	-0.5pp $-1,772	base $-1,982	+0.5pp $-2,196	+1.0pp $-2,413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $206,318
• Closing costs: $24,758
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35482 Big Hawk Dr Zephyrhills, FL	5.0	4.5	4218	$5,750	$1.36	38d	1	1.08mi
35436 Big Hawk Dr Zephyrhills, FL	6.0	4.0	4539	$5,900	$1.30	38d	1	1.13mi
35335 Big Hawk Dr Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	4.0	3138	$5,200	$1.66	73d	1	1.23mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty includedLiving area reported as 3,561 sq ft (builder)Total building area 4,187 sq ft (builder)
• Financial info: Other annual assessment $3,173Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by InframarkMonthly HOA fee $90Association approval requiredCommunity clubhouse, playground, and poolPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerBB/HS internet availableFiber optics availableNatural gas available and connectedUnderground utilities
• Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyUnder construction (projected completion August 30, 2026)Two levelsFaces southMPUD zoning
• Construction: Block and stucco constructionTile roofSlab foundationNew constructionBuilder: D.R. HortonBuilder model: TalbotBuilder license CBC039052Permit number 2025-05971
• Exterior features: Sliding doorsPaved road accessPrivate maintained roadIrrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in ovenDishwasherExhaust fanMicrowaveRangeRange hoodStone counters
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air
• Interior features: High ceilingsOpen floorplanSplit bedroom layoutStone countertopsTray ceilingsWalk-in closetsDouble pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry roomGas water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   pricedays on market $565,000 Active 176 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $569,990 Active 174 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $569,990 Active 173 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $569,990 Active 172 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $569,990 Active 171 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $569,990 Active 168 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $569,990 Active 166 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $569,990 Active 165 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $569,990 Active 163 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $569,990 Active 161 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $569,990 Active 160 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    price $569,990 Active 159 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $574,990 Active 159 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $574,990 Active 158 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $574,990 Active 157 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    pricedays on market $574,990 Active 154 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $579,990 Active 153 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $579,990 Active 152 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $579,990 Active 150 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $579,990 Active 149 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $579,990 Active 148 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $579,990 Active 147 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $579,990 Active 146 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $579,990 Active 144 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $579,990 Active 143 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $579,990 Active 142 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $579,990 Active 141 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $579,990 Active 140 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $579,990 Active 139 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $579,990 Active 138 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $579,990 Active 137 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $579,990 Active 136 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $579,990 Active 135 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $579,990 Active 134 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $579,990 Active 133 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $579,990 Active 131 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $579,990 Active 129 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $579,990 Active 125 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    price $579,990 Active 124 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $586,050 Active 124 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $586,050 Active 123 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $586,050 Active 122 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $586,050 Active 120 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $584,990 Active 116 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $584,990 Active 115 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $584,990 Active 114 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $584,990 Active 111 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $599,990 Active 110 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $599,990 Active 109 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $599,990 Active 108 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,793
• − Mortgage interest: −$46,228
• − Property taxes: −$12,379
• − Insurance: −$5,629
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,783
• − Management: −$4,783
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$24,008
• Taxable loss: −$39,097
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,383
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Poor 20/100 None rehab

The property is under construction and virtually staged. No photos of the interior or exterior are available to assess condition or identify repairs needed.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School F FL #1,697/2,144 Nat'l #22,904/41,679 Middle Raymond B. Stewart Middle School F FL #453/571 Nat'l #8,497/14,009 High Zephyrhills High School F FL #359/667 Nat'l #9,405/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 48,266
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 24% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty includedLiving area reported as 3,561 sq ft (builder)Total building area 4,187 sq ft (builder)
• Financial info: Other annual assessment $3,173Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by InframarkMonthly HOA fee $90Association approval requiredCommunity clubhouse, playground, and poolPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerBB/HS internet availableFiber optics availableNatural gas available and connectedUnderground utilities
• Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyUnder construction (projected completion August 30, 2026)Two levelsFaces southMPUD zoning
• Construction: Block and stucco constructionTile roofSlab foundationNew constructionBuilder: D.R. HortonBuilder model: TalbotBuilder license CBC039052Permit number 2025-05971
• Exterior features: Sliding doorsPaved road accessPrivate maintained roadIrrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in ovenDishwasherExhaust fanMicrowaveRangeRange hoodStone counters
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air
• Interior features: High ceilingsOpen floorplanSplit bedroom layoutStone countertopsTray ceilingsWalk-in closetsDouble pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry roomGas water heater

Price history

-8.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $619,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $619,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $629,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $629,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $634,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $634,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $659,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $659,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $664,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $664,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $669,390 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $669,390 Zillow
• 2026-03-27 Listed $669,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $669,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $674,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Listed $677,815 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid