430 E 4th St · Milan, MO 63556

$105,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,908 sqft · SingleFamily · 323 Days on market

Built 1904 0.33 ac lot $55/sqft · 50% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large single family house located in rural Missouri that offers quiet, country living in a peaceful location. 1908 sq ft, 2 floors + unfinished basement, 3 bd, 2.5 baths. Located very close to a large food processing plant, making it perfect for conversion to a high-value STR and MTR for new hires. Needs a little bit of work on the roof and windows, but very easy to flip or convert for a motivated buyer. Priced to sell. Comes with a shed, screened in back porch, and concrete patio. This home is an ideal fit for buyers looking to capitalize on a great deal in the rural Midwest and own either a quiet home in a quaint small town to escape to, or a profitable investment property in a low competition area.

Key facts

• Shed
• Concrete patio
• 0.33 acre lot

Tags

• SHED
• SCREENED IN BACK PORCH
• CONCRETE PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#305 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Milan C-2 (rural): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #245 of 324 in MO (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 323 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1904 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 323 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1904 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.98%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,346
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -50.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
525 W Page St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,980 (+4%)	20mo	$199,900	$101	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $27,760
• Equity at exit: $48,399

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $77,799
• Equity at exit: $75,524

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63556

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,123 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $876/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $845

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 323 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 322 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 321 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 320 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 318 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $105,000 Active 317 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 314 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 313 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 312 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 310 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $105,000 Active 308 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 307 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 306 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 305 DOM
15. 2025-07-30
    listed $105,000 Active 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    Large single family house located in rural Missouri that offers quiet, country living in a peaceful location. 1908 sq ft, 2 floors + unfinished basement, 3 bd, 2.5 baths. Located very close to a large food processing plant, making it perfect for conversion to a high-value STR and MTR for new hires. Needs a little bit of work on the roof and windows, but very easy to flip or convert for a motivated buyer. Priced to sell. Comes with a shed, screened in back porch, and concrete patio. This home is an ideal fit for buyers looking to capitalize on a great deal in the rural Midwest and own either a quiet home in a quaint small town to escape to, or a profitable investment property in a low competition area.

16. 2008-11-14
    soldstatus 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    CORPORATE OWNED PROPERTY, SOLD “AS IS” NO SELLER’S DISCLOSURES. MINIMUM OF $1000 EARNEST MONEY REQUIRED. FAX ALL OFFERS ACCOMPANIED WITH PRE-APPROVAL OR PROOF OF FUNDS. SELLER RESERVES THE RIGHT TO ACCEPT THE OFFER OF THEIR CHOICE REGARDLESS OF THE ORDER RECEIVED.

17. 2008-08-15
    listed $49,900 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    CORPORATE OWNED PROPERTY, SOLD “AS IS” NO SELLER’S DISCLOSURES. MINIMUM OF $1000 EARNEST MONEY REQUIRED. FAX ALL OFFERS ACCOMPANIED WITH PRE-APPROVAL OR PROOF OF FUNDS. SELLER RESERVES THE RIGHT TO ACCEPT THE OFFER OF THEIR CHOICE REGARDLESS OF THE ORDER RECEIVED.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $876 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,018 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$142/yr (+$12/mo · 16.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$876
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,078
• − Management: −$1,078
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $986
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$237
• After-tax cash flow: $2,404/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Milan C-2
• NCES district ID: 2920940
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,588
• Composite: 27.57/100
• National rank: #6941
• State rank: #245 of 324 in MO

Livability — Milan

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #305
• US rank: #13979

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Milan, MO
• Population (ZIP): 3,279

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,679 people
• By 2030: 5,360 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 4,773 · -16.0%
• By 2050: 4,303 · -24.2%
• By 2075: 3,645 · -35.8%
• By 2100: 3,225 · -43.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 10% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 23% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -50.9pp toward R · 2008: -15.1pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+60.5 2016: R+54.7 2012: R+27.1 2008: R+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.20%
• Current HPI: 114.3731
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+110.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-30 Listed $105,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-11-14 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-15 Listed $49,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $876 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.