78 Bernice St · Johnson City, NY 13790

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1925 4,791 sqft lot Est $145k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Johnson City! This 3-bed, 1.5-bath home features hardwood floors throughout and a convenient pass-through from the kitchen to the dining room, with enough space for bar seating. Upstairs, you’ll find three bedrooms and a half bath. The primary bedroom includes a bonus space perfect for an office, studio, or expanded closet with access to the back exit. The first bedroom also offers a walk-up attic for additional storage. Outside, enjoy the charm of the covered front porch and the neighborhood. The fully fenced backyard adds privacy and creates a welcoming space for pets, play, or relaxing outdoors. Open House Saturday, March 28th 12-1pm

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Bonus space
• Walk-up attic

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• PASS-THROUGH FROM KITCHEN
• BONUS SPACE
• WALK-UP ATTIC
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 6.2% in Johnson City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#238 in NY, #3,739 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Johnson City Central School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johnson City Elementary/Primary School (496 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.5%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 340 units permitted in Broome County in 2024 (269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Broome County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $139k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.83%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,432
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
446 Grand Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,364 (-1%)	1mo	$100,000	$73	95
95 Thomas St	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+8%)	2mo	$131,978	$89	82
3 Banks Ave Ave	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,248 (-9%)	0mo	$190,000	$152	69
41 Elizabeth St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,312 (-4%)	6mo	$126,000	$96	67
73 Elizabeth St	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,480 (+8%)	2mo	$190,000	$128	66
50 Crocker Ave	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,411 (+3%)	8mo	$150,000	$106	65
12 Eldridge Ave	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,518 (+11%)	4mo	$132,000	$87	59
43 Haynes Ave	0.74mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,360 (-1%)	5mo	$155,000	$114	53
129 Ackley Ave	0.60mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,460 (+6%)	4mo	$160,000	$110	51
234 Saint Charles St	0.39mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,512 (+10%)	7mo	$112,000	$74	50
9 Endwell St	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-12%)	6mo	$145,000	$121	45
32 Haynes Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,518 (+11%)	5mo	$95,000	$63	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $94,739
• Equity at exit: $125,222

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.54×
• Total profit: $293,505
• Equity at exit: $270,046

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13790

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Rents YoY: 9.5%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,684 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$387 /mo · $4,645/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,486

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
50 Crocker Ave Johnson City, NY	4.0	2.0	1411	$2,000	$1.42	21d	1	0.37mi
207 Saint Charles St #2 Johnson City, NY	2.0	1.0	925	$1,250	$1.35	21d	1	0.39mi
51 Allen St Unit 1 Johnson City, NY	3.0	1.0	1170	$1,575	$1.35	21d	1	0.47mi
11 Dayton St Apt 5 Johnson City, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	13d	1	0.59mi
400 Riverside Dr Unit 15 Johnson City, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,425	$2.42	13d	1	0.65mi
400 Riverside Dr Unit 212 Johnson City, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	13d	1	0.65mi
145 Floral Ave Unit 4 Johnson City, NY	3.0	1.0	1095	$1,250	$1.14	21d	1	0.72mi
10 Bidwell St Johnson City, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	44d	1	0.73mi
248 Main St Unit 2 Johnson City, NY	2.0	1.0	1650	$1,650	$1.00	13d	1	0.77mi
127 Burbank Ave Unit 2 Johnson City, NY	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,000	$0.97	21d	1	0.84mi
3613 Vestal Rd Vestal, NY	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,000	$1.26	13d	1	1.08mi
133 Crestmont Rd Unit 2 Binghamton, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,900	$1.46	44d	1	1.38mi
296 Main St Unit 6 Binghamton, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	13d	1	1.39mi
129 Helen St Unit 1 Binghamton, NY	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   listed $139,000 Active
3. 2005-09-16
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,645 · $387/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,645 · $387/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 38% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$4,645
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,617
• − Management: −$1,617
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$192
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$46
• After-tax cash flow: $1,926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnson City Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615900
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $40,514
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5545
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Johnson City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #238
• US rank: #3739

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnson City, NY
• County: Broome County · 126,805 people
• City population: 18,739
• Metro: Binghamton, NY
• Population (ZIP): 18,739
• Household income: $59,045
• Rent vs Own: 44.8% rent · 55.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1233.0

Population outlook (Broome County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 187,989 people
• By 2030: 183,066 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 172,228 · -8.4%
• By 2050: 163,161 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 153,641 · -18.3%
• By 2100: 140,851 · -25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Asian 8% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Broome

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.0pp · 2024: 0.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.4 2020: D+3.5 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+8.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.06%
• Current HPI: 285.3668
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.47%
• Metro: Binghamton, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+152.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — GBAOR
• 2026-03-23 Listed $139,000 GBAOR
• 2005-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,645 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.