64 Black Oak Cir · Ward, AR 72176

$139,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1998 0.50 ac lot Est $106k · 31% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling all Investors. Here is a great opportunity to purchase your next rental unit. 3 bedroom 2 bath, on large lot with a cute storage building. SOLD AS IS AGENTS SEE REMARKS Can be purchased as a pkg along with 1 Hilburn, Ward, AR

Key facts

• Recent updates
• New hvac system
• 0.5 acre lot

Tags

• RENTAL INCOME OPPORTUNITY
• RECENT UPDATES
• NEW LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing options: Conventional loan, cash, or other (see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pads for 2 cars
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service via cooperative
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home on a permanent foundation
• Construction: Composition roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Metal/vinyl siding; Paved road access; Rural property in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Microwave
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Luxury vinyl flooring; Formal living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $433 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.9% in Ward — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#66 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cabot School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #29 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $139k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,659 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.35%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $106,176
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
66 Black Oak Cir	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+8%)	21mo	$115,000	$79	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $62,388
• Equity at exit: $81,780

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.20×
• Total profit: $163,413
• Equity at exit: $143,696

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72176

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,601 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $541/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,053

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Gold Meadows Loop Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,300	$0.88	23d	1	0.45mi
21 Windsor Park Dr Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,500	$1.04	23d	1	0.55mi
65 Birchwood Dr Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,650	$1.27	21d	1	0.63mi
29 Green Apple Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	19d	1	0.91mi
23 Green Apple Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,450	$1.20	23d	1	0.91mi
21 Weatherwood Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,300	$1.12	23d	1	0.94mi
205 N 2nd St Austin, AR	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,250	$1.24	23d	1	1.43mi
21 Kasidyann Ct Ward, AR	4.0	2.0	1415	$1,795	$1.27	23d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-03-25
    listed $139,000 New Listing
17. 2026-03-03
    historical $1,250
18. 2026-02-26
    listed $1,250
19. 2025-12-18
    status Under Contract 235-char remark

    Show marketing remark (235 chars)

    Calling all Investors. Here is a great opportunity to purchase your next rental unit. 3 bedroom 2 bath, on large lot with a cute storage building. SOLD AS IS AGENTS SEE REMARKS Can be purchased as a pkg along with 1 Hilburn, Ward, AR

20. 2025-12-17
    soldstatus $52,000 Sold 235-char remark

    Show marketing remark (235 chars)

    Calling all Investors. Here is a great opportunity to purchase your next rental unit. 3 bedroom 2 bath, on large lot with a cute storage building. SOLD AS IS AGENTS SEE REMARKS Can be purchased as a pkg along with 1 Hilburn, Ward, AR

21. 2025-11-17
    historical Take Backups 235-char remark

    Show marketing remark (235 chars)

    Calling all Investors. Here is a great opportunity to purchase your next rental unit. 3 bedroom 2 bath, on large lot with a cute storage building. SOLD AS IS AGENTS SEE REMARKS Can be purchased as a pkg along with 1 Hilburn, Ward, AR

22. 2025-11-10
    listed $60,000 New Listing 235-char remark

    Show marketing remark (235 chars)

    Calling all Investors. Here is a great opportunity to purchase your next rental unit. 3 bedroom 2 bath, on large lot with a cute storage building. SOLD AS IS AGENTS SEE REMARKS Can be purchased as a pkg along with 1 Hilburn, Ward, AR

23. 2025-01-01
    historical
24. 2024-11-17
    price $69,500
25. 2024-10-13
    listed $75,000 New Listing
26. 2008-05-29
    soldstatus $30,000
27. 1998-06-29
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $541 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $890 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$349/yr (+$29/mo · 64.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$541
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,537
• − Management: −$1,537
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $3,074
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$738
• After-tax cash flow: $4,458/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cabot School District
• NCES district ID: 0503750
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,993
• Composite: 39.66/100
• National rank: #3912
• State rank: #29 of 238 in AR

Livability — Ward

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #8464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lonoke County · 46,130 people
• City population: 8,678
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 8,678
• Household income: $68,840
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 90.0

Population outlook (Lonoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,072 people
• By 2030: 80,673 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 84,977 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 87,778 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 91,398 · +17.1%
• By 2100: 87,858 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lonoke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.2% · R 75.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.8 2016: R+53.3 2012: R+50.9 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.35%
• Current HPI: 208.9387
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+98.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $139,000 CARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Rental Removed $1,250 CARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed for Rent $1,250 CARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Pending — CARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Sold (MLS) $52,000 CARMLS
• 2025-11-17 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $60,000 CARMLS
• 2025-01-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2024-11-17 Price Changed $69,500 CARMLS
• 2024-10-13 Listed $75,000 CARMLS
• 2008-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1998-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $541 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.