5114 Storey Ave · Midland, TX 79707

$299,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,383 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1979 7,405 sqft lot $217/sqft · 26% above area Est $324k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming fully renovated 3-bed, 2-bath home with a versatile large bonus room perfect for a 4th bedroom, gameroom, office, or second living area. This move-in ready property features tall ceilings in family room & all white kitchen! The updated interior offers modern finishes & a fresh, inviting feel throughout. Step outside to a generous backyard complete with two storage sheds, providing plenty of space for tools, hobbies, or extra storage. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and dining, this home combines comfort, functionality, and charm—don't miss your chance to make it yours!

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Large bonus room
• Tall ceilings

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• LARGE BONUS ROOM
• TALL CEILINGS
• ALL WHITE KITCHEN
• GENEROUS BACKYARD
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-299 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, commute D+.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 314 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,904 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.27%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,977
• List price: $299,500
• Delta: -7.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-64,502
• Equity at exit: $44,656

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-67,763
• Equity at exit: $25,895

Cash invested: $83,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79707

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 314
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,089 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,571
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,043/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,467

Max offer price $246,749

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-129	-5% $-214	+0% $-299	+5% $-383	+10% $-468
Rent	-10% $-464	-5% $-381	+0% $-299	+5% $-216	+10% $-134
Rate	-1.0pp $-148	-0.5pp $-222	base $-299	+0.5pp $-376	+1.0pp $-455

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,875
• Closing costs: $8,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5202 Ric Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,975	$1.57	22d	1	0.19mi
516 North Loop 250 W Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$1,724	$2.28	14d	28	0.25mi
4707 Shadylane Dr Unit B Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	960	$1,400	$1.46	14d	1	0.41mi
117 N Glenwood Dr Unit D Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,795	$1.79	22d	1	0.42mi
4719 Bowie Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	991	$4,500	$4.54	22d	1	0.45mi
4701 W Illinois Ave Unit D Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	942	$1,050	$1.11	22d	1	0.45mi
123 N Glenwood Dr Unit A Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,695	$1.70	44d	1	0.45mi
4610 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,899	$1.60	22d	1	0.55mi
4506 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	14d	1	0.67mi
4603 Mercedes Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,199	$1.32	22d	1	0.69mi
4525 Crockett Ave Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1400	$4,250	$3.04	22d	1	0.69mi
5109 Graceland Dr Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,250	$1.65	44d	1	0.71mi
4519 Crockett Ave Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1465	$1,900	$1.30	22d	1	0.71mi
4515 Monty Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1853	$2,400	$1.30	44d	1	0.73mi
4503 Crockett Ave Unit B Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	44d	1	0.76mi
5205 Blue Haven Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1539	$6,000	$3.90	44d	1	0.76mi
4409 Roosevelt Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,750	$1.42	45d	1	0.76mi
704 Nolan Ryan Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,500	$1.72	44d	1	0.78mi
805 Nolan Ryan Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1630	$2,450	$1.50	22d	1	0.83mi
4405 Crockett Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	44d	1	0.84mi
4403 Crockett Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1065	$1,800	$1.69	22d	1	0.86mi
5919 Mile High Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$2,600	$1.48	22d	1	0.89mi
909 Beal Pkwy Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$2,200	$1.32	22d	1	0.95mi
4313 Storey Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$2,000	$1.59	44d	1	0.96mi
5801 Deauville Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	914	$2,247	$2.46	14d	22	0.97mi
6011 Mile High Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1763	$2,550	$1.45	44d	1	0.98mi
6020 Spahn St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1849	$2,800	$1.51	44d	1	1.00mi
6102 Mile High Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1763	$2,500	$1.42	44d	1	1.04mi
509 Delmar St Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1116	$1,796	$1.61	14d	8	1.04mi
4600 Andrews Hwy Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$2,590	$2.32	44d	5	1.11mi
4000 W Illinois Ave Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	755	$1,545	$2.05	22d	10	1.14mi
1008 Rangers Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,250	$1.35	14d	1	1.17mi
711 Candlestick Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,400	$1.59	22d	1	1.21mi
711 Candlestick Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,400	$1.59	44d	1	1.21mi
907 Candlestick Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1715	$2,500	$1.46	14d	1	1.25mi
6406 Hall of Fame Blvd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1718	$2,850	$1.66	14d	1	1.27mi
3607 W Michigan Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,500	$1.63	22d	1	1.29mi
3811 Cedar Spring Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	44d	1	1.29mi
5313 Freedom Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1794	$2,550	$1.42	22d	1	1.35mi
619 Victory Pkwy Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$3,200	$1.75	14d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-15
   historical Active Under Contract 615-char remark

   Show marketing remark (615 chars)

   Charming fully renovated 3-bed, 2-bath home with a versatile large bonus room perfect for a 4th bedroom, gameroom, office, or second living area. This move-in ready property features tall ceilings in family room & all white kitchen! The updated interior offers modern finishes & a fresh, inviting feel throughout. Step outside to a generous backyard complete with two storage sheds, providing plenty of space for tools, hobbies, or extra storage. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and dining, this home combines comfort, functionality, and charm—don't miss your chance to make it yours!

2. 2026-05-11
   price $299,500 615-char remark

   Show marketing remark (615 chars)

   Charming fully renovated 3-bed, 2-bath home with a versatile large bonus room perfect for a 4th bedroom, gameroom, office, or second living area. This move-in ready property features tall ceilings in family room & all white kitchen! The updated interior offers modern finishes & a fresh, inviting feel throughout. Step outside to a generous backyard complete with two storage sheds, providing plenty of space for tools, hobbies, or extra storage. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and dining, this home combines comfort, functionality, and charm—don't miss your chance to make it yours!

3. 2026-04-21
   listed $315,000 Active 615-char remark

   Show marketing remark (615 chars)

   Charming fully renovated 3-bed, 2-bath home with a versatile large bonus room perfect for a 4th bedroom, gameroom, office, or second living area. This move-in ready property features tall ceilings in family room & all white kitchen! The updated interior offers modern finishes & a fresh, inviting feel throughout. Step outside to a generous backyard complete with two storage sheds, providing plenty of space for tools, hobbies, or extra storage. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and dining, this home combines comfort, functionality, and charm—don't miss your chance to make it yours!

4. 2026-04-06
   price $329,900
5. 2019-05-02
   soldstatus
6. 2005-08-15
   soldstatus
7. 2000-12-18
   soldstatus
8. 2000-12-18
   soldstatus
9. 2000-08-08
   listed $57,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,043 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,481 · $457/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,438/yr (+$203/mo · 80.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,777
• − Property taxes: −$3,043
• − Insurance: −$1,498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,005
• − Management: −$2,005
• − Depreciation: −$8,713
• Taxable loss: −$8,972
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,153
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,430/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,010
• Household income: $99,886
• Rent vs Own: 40.0% rent · 60.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1919.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 11% Asian 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -208.65%
• Current HPI: 198.7489
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.45%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+425.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Contingent — PBBOR
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $299,500 PBBOR
• 2026-04-21 Listed $315,000 PBBOR
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $329,900 PBBOR
• 2019-05-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-08-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-12-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-12-18 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2000-08-08 Listed $57,000 ODMLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,043 · -3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.