81 Route 82 · Brinckerhoff, NY 12524

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,604 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1948 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your next great opportunity—nestled on a level and private 1-acre parcel, this home offers the perfect blend of existing comfort and future potential. With approximately 1,600 square feet of possibility, this property features a spacious and functional layout that’s ready for your finishing touches. The main level includes two generously sized bedrooms, a full bathroom (ready for renovation), a cozy living room, and a full kitchen with sliding glass doors that open up to the peaceful backyard—perfect for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Head upstairs to find a framed and plumbed second floor, offering the potential for two additional bedrooms and two full b

Key facts

• Flexible layout
• Desirable location
• Peaceful backyard

Tags

• SPACIOUS AND FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• PEACEFUL BACKYARD
• GROUNDWORK IS ALREADY IN PLACE
• SOLID STRUCTURE
• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT
• DESIRABLE LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $926 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $229k).
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 2.1% in Brinckerhoff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#631 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Wappingers Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #207 of 590 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Brinckerhoff Elementary School (math 57% / reading 70%, grade B, #663 of 2,108 statewide, top 32%, 570 students, 16% FRL); Van Wyck Junior High School (math 32% / reading 63%, grade C-, #306 of 729 statewide, top 43%, 843 students, 21% FRL); John Jay Senior High School (math 96% / reading 98%, grade A+, #53 of 1,100 statewide, top 5%, 1,837 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 19% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $195k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.32%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $468,368
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
510 Somerset Ct	0.09mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,796 (+12%)	2mo	$445,000	$248	67
29 Wedgewood Rd	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,386 (-14%)	4mo	$475,000	$343	63
97 Riverview Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+6%)	10mo	$481,000	$283	63
274 Cabot Ct	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,608 (+0%)	15mo	$352,000	$219	62
47 Wedgewood Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+12%)	8mo	$560,000	$313	62
51 Ward Pl	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,632 (+2%)	4mo	$490,000	$300	59
1 Mountainview Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,694 (+6%)	5mo	$500,000	$295	54
38 Longview Dr	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,489 (-7%)	23mo	$452,000	$304	52
60 Cumberland Rd	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,800 (+12%)	18mo	$445,000	$247	46
31 Moccasin View Rd	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,431 (-11%)	16mo	$390,000	$273	34
11 Cumberland Rd	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,369 (-15%)	21mo	$400,000	$292	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $21,897
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $95,179
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12524

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,175 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,435/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$667
• Net cashflow: $926

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,003

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1063 Dutcher Dr Fishkill, NY	2.0	2.5	1967	$3,175	$1.61	44d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-07-31
   status Pending
2. 2025-06-23
   listed $229,000 Active
3. 2000-12-18
   soldstatus $195,000
4. 1991-05-08
   soldstatus $135,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,435
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,048
• − Management: −$3,048
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable income: $7,935
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,904
• After-tax cash flow: $9,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wappingers Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629880
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $83,184
• Composite: 53.38/100
• National rank: #1474
• State rank: #207 of 590 in NY

Livability — Brinckerhoff

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #631
• US rank: #11579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brinckerhoff, NY
• Population (ZIP): 15,079

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.70%
• Current HPI: 248.2896
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+69.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-31 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-23 Listed $229,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 1991-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $135,500 Public Records