2813 Genuine Risk Ct · Celina, TX 75009

$648,472

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,198 sqft · SingleFamily · 199 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,011 sqft lot Garage $203/sqft · 26% below area Est $878k · 26% under $147/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2813 Genuine Risk Court, Celina, TX 75009: Step inside the Lavender, a stunning two-story home situated on an elevated homesite and designed with impressive spaces for everyday living, entertaining, and gathering with family and friends. One of the standout features of this home is the expansive L-shaped covered back porch, creating an incredible extension of the living space outdoors. A dramatic 12-foot sliding glass door opens the family room to the porch, bringing in abundant natural light and creating a seamless connection between indoor and outdoor living. The Lavender features 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and a 3-car garage, along with a dedicated home office.

Key facts

• Sunny family area
• Walk-in closet
• Upstairs bedrooms

Tags

• SUNNY FAMILY AREA
• TASTEFUL KITCHEN
• UPSTAIRS BEDROOMS
• FIRST-FLOOR GUEST ROOM
• PRIVATE OWNERS RETREAT
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $648k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $381k (41.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $361k (44.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $361k (44.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Prosper ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #33 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cynthia A Cockrell El (math 62% / reading 63%, grade B, #311 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 759 students, 4% FRL); Lorene Rogers Middle (math 70% / reading 68%, grade A, #69 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 1,430 students, 0% FRL); Prosper H S (math 60% / reading 75%, grade B, #158 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,769 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 4240 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 105d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($571k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $360,604 (44.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.76%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 15.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $878,040
• List price: $648,472
• Delta: -26.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2623 Seabiscuit Rd	0.30mi	4/3.5	3,306 (+3%)	2mo	$799,900	$242	76
2316 Havannah Dr	0.20mi	4/5.0	3,411 (+7%)	4mo	$1,075,000	$315	68
2718 Corral Dr	0.43mi	4/3.0	3,413 (+7%)	3mo	$899,000	$263	66
2913 Vaquero Ln	0.54mi	4/4.0	3,221 (+1%)	4mo	$919,000	$285	66
3201 Alydar Dr	0.32mi	4/5.0	3,411 (+7%)	1mo	$1,099,000	$322	65
2617 Eclipse Pl	0.47mi	4/3.5	3,000 (-6%)	4mo	$710,000	$237	62
2414 Hawksbury Ct	0.16mi	4/4.5	3,628 (+13%)	3mo	$1,200,000	$331	62
2808 Citation Rd	0.52mi	4/3.5	2,994 (-6%)	4mo	$635,000	$212	60
2425 Eclipse Pl	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,722 (-15%)	4mo	$699,900	$257	54
2801 N Little Current Ct	0.43mi	4/4.5	3,634 (+14%)	4mo	$990,900	$273	48
1700 Bird Cherry Ln	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,867 (-10%)	1mo	$536,000	$187	47
2821 Neutral Player Ct	0.52mi	4/4.5	3,649 (+14%)	0mo	$874,900	$240	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -42.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-233,044
• Equity at exit: $96,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -94.9%
• Equity multiple: -1.17×
• Total profit: $-394,421
• Equity at exit: $56,068

Cash invested: $181,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 247 active · 55 under contract
• Months of supply: 27.4 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $769,950 ($241/sqft)
• Median days on market: 129 d
• This list price: 28% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 4240
• Price-to-rent: 15.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,606 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,401
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$811 /mo · $9,727/yr
• Insurance: −$270
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$147
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$757
• Net cashflow: $-1,846

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,943

Max offer price $381,334

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,398	-5% $-1,622	+0% $-1,846	+5% $-2,070	+10% $-2,294
Rent	-10% $-2,131	-5% $-1,989	+0% $-1,846	+5% $-1,704	+10% $-1,561
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,520	-0.5pp $-1,681	base $-1,846	+0.5pp $-2,014	+1.0pp $-2,185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,118
• Closing costs: $19,454
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2232 Grey September St Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	3003	$4,500	$1.50	134d	1	0.16mi
3501 Truro St Celina, TX	4.0	4.0	3559	$4,500	$1.26	10d	1	0.29mi
2424 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2261	$2,900	$1.28	35d	1	0.49mi
2432 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2309	$3,500	$1.52	184d	1	0.49mi
2632 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2359	$3,500	$1.48	0d	1	0.57mi
3533 Hyacinth Way Prosper, TX	4.0	3.5	3405	$3,600	$1.06	102d	1	0.59mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,500	$1.46	184d	1	0.61mi
3257 Sky Ln Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2236	$3,000	$1.34	23d	1	0.62mi
3257 Sky Ln Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2236	$3,000	$1.34	10d	1	0.62mi
1629 White Snowberry Ln Prosper, TX	4.0	3.0	2996	$3,200	$1.07	152d	1	0.68mi
2600 Precocious Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	3316	$4,700	$1.42	99d	1	0.71mi
2912 Seattle Slew Dr Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	3679	$3,900	$1.06	0d	1	0.72mi
2821 Adon Springs Ln Celina, TX	5.0	3.5	4064	$4,250	$1.05	140d	1	0.81mi
1600 Bird Cherry Ln Prosper, TX	4.0	2.0	2213	$2,745	$1.24	10d	1	0.83mi
1600 Bird Cherry Ln Prosper, TX	4.0	2.0	2212	$3,099	$1.40	146d	1	0.83mi
2809 River Bend Pl Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	4288	$4,250	$0.99	64d	1	0.84mi
2901 Adon Springs Ln Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	3606	$4,000	$1.11	37d	1	0.84mi
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,895	$1.21	159d	1	0.85mi
1837 Whispering Pines Dr Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	3670	$3,550	$0.97	142d	1	0.87mi
2820 Fountain Park Dr Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	4250	$4,600	$1.08	116d	1	0.87mi
1837 Whispering Pines Dr Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	3664	$3,400	$0.93	104d	1	0.87mi
1837 Whispering Pines Dr Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	3670	$3,550	$0.97	132d	1	0.87mi
3125 Pedigree Ct Celina, TX	4.0	4.5	3589	$4,600	$1.28	76d	1	0.88mi
6531 Swallow Ct McKinney, TX	4.0	3.0	3049	$1,700	$0.56	77d	1	0.89mi
1427 Daisy Corner Dr Prosper, TX	4.0	3.0	2989	$3,499	$1.17	184d	1	0.89mi
2020 Stonebrook St Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	3596	$3,295	$0.92	95d	1	0.93mi
1514 Carnation St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	3041	$3,900	$1.28	148d	1	0.93mi
1514 Carnation St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	3041	$3,900	$1.28	159d	1	0.93mi
1523 Carnation St Prosper, TX	3.0	3.0	2227	$3,000	$1.35	10d	1	0.93mi
3328 Zenyatta Ct Celina, TX	5.0	5.0	4328	$5,000	$1.16	36d	1	0.93mi
3328 Zenyatta Ct Celina, TX	5.0	5.0	4328	$5,000	$1.16	14d	1	0.93mi
1417 Bird Cherry Ln Prosper, TX	4.0	3.0	2967	$3,900	$1.31	185d	1	0.94mi
3332 Zenyatta Ct Celina, TX	4.0	4.5	3789	$4,495	$1.19	20d	1	0.95mi
1400 Daisy Corner Dr Prosper, TX	4.0	3.0	3025	$3,700	$1.22	135d	1	0.96mi
3125 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2331	$3,300	$1.42	128d	1	0.97mi
1615 Gardenia St Prosper, TX	5.0	3.5	3404	$3,850	$1.13	184d	1	0.97mi
4428 Mill Pond Dr Celina, TX	4.0	4.0	2883	$4,650	$1.61	73d	1	0.98mi
1308 Ladys Mantle Way Prosper, TX	4.0	3.0	2975	$3,400	$1.14	10d	1	0.98mi
3138 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2368	$3,000	$1.27	165d	1	0.99mi
1308 Bluebonnet Ln Prosper, TX	4.0	3.0	2175	$3,250	$1.49	159d	1	0.99mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $749,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 garage spaces (3 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family property
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 3186

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Lavender plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $648,472 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $648,472 Active 198 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $648,472 Active 197 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $648,472 Active 196 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $648,472 Active 195 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $648,472 Active 193 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $648,472 Active 192 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $648,472 Active 191 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $648,472 Active 190 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $648,472 Active 189 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $648,472 Active 188 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $648,472 Active 187 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $648,472 Active 186 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $648,472 Active 185 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $648,472 Active 184 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $648,472 Active 183 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $648,472 Active 182 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $648,472 Active 181 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $648,472 Active 180 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $648,472 Active 179 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $648,472 Active 178 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $648,472 Active 177 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $648,472 Active 176 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $648,472 Active 175 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $648,472 Active 174 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $648,472 Active 173 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $648,472 Active 172 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $648,472 Active 171 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $648,472 Active 170 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $648,472 Active 169 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $648,472 Active 168 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $648,472 Active 167 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $648,472 Active 166 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $648,472 Active 165 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $648,472 Active 164 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $648,472 Active 163 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $648,472 Active 162 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $648,472 Active 161 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $648,472 Active 160 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $648,472 Active 159 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $648,472 Active 158 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $648,472 Active 157 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $648,472 Active 156 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $648,472 Active 155 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $648,472 Active 154 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $648,472 Active 153 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $648,472 Active 152 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $648,472 Active 151 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $648,472 Active 149 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $648,472 Active 148 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,272
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,325
• − Property taxes: −$9,727
• − Insurance: −$4,040
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,462
• − Management: −$3,462
• − HOA: −$1,764
• − Depreciation: −$18,865
• Taxable loss: −$34,371
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,249
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This beautiful two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great opportunity for an investor to move in and enjoy luxury living.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Improves curb appeal and enhances home's ambiance ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Marcy B Lykins El F TX #1,243/4,322 Nat'l #17,190/41,679 Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prosper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836000
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $107,993
• Composite: 55.79/100
• National rank: #1212
• State rank: #33 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $749,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 garage spaces (3 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family property
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 3186

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Lavender plan)