2813 Genuine Risk Ct · Celina, TX 75009

$717,429

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,186 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Garage $225/sqft · 11% below area Est $808k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2813 Genuine Risk Court, Celina, TX 75009: The Lavender Plan blends comfort and style in all the right ways. This beautiful two-story home features 4 spacious bedrooms, 3 full baths, and a 3-car garage, with soaring vaulted ceilings up to 20 feet that create a bright, open feel. Enjoy a media room for entertainment, a 12 foot sliding glass door that opens out to the extended covered back porch, and a thoughtfully designed family foyer with utility access for everyday convenience. Schedule your private appointment today to learn more about The Lavender home and experience luxury living with David Weekley at Mustang Lakes in Celina.

Key facts

• 3 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 98 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $717k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $466k (35.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $416k (41.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $416k (41.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.9% in Celina — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 3407 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($653k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $416,474 (41.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.96%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $808,212
• List price: $717,429
• Delta: -11.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4601 Lake Dr	0.73mi	4/3.5	3,244 (+2%)	3mo	$915,000	$282	58
4601 Church St	0.71mi	4/3.0	3,029 (-5%)	4mo	$899,000	$297	56
2001 Tallulah Gorge Ct	0.80mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,251 (+2%)	1mo	$683,325	$210	52
2408 Grand Teton Ln	0.80mi	4/5.0	3,411 (+7%)	0mo	$950,000	$279	45
4651 High Point Dr	0.81mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,491 (+10%)	0mo	$865,000	$248	38
1441 Caruth Ln	1.11mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,561 (-20%)	1mo	$449,900	$176	34
1456 Bateman Ln	1.10mi	4/3.0	2,566 (-20%)	11mo	$449,000	$175	31
2412 Grand Teton Ln	0.80mi	4/5.0	3,709 (+16%)	2mo	$971,480	$262	31
2625 Dreamers Ln	1.09mi	5/5.5 (+1)	3,588 (+13%)	1mo	$629,795	$176	28
2621 Dreamers Ln	1.08mi	5/5.5 (+1)	3,600 (+13%)	0mo	$612,869	$170	28
3607 Water Lily Way	0.75mi	4/5.0	3,642 (+14%)	8mo	$729,990	$200	26
4750 High Point Dr	0.93mi	4/3.5	3,648 (+14%)	16mo	$999,999	$274	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-238,815
• Equity at exit: $106,971

10-year hold

• IRR: -80.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.98×
• Total profit: $-396,936
• Equity at exit: $62,030

Cash invested: $200,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 33 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 33.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $613,688 ($202/sqft)
• Median days on market: 94 d
• This list price: 88% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +25.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 3407
• Price-to-rent: 14.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,165 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,762
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$897 /mo · $10,761/yr
• Insurance: −$299
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$875
• Net cashflow: $-1,734

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,360

Max offer price $466,472

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,239	-5% $-1,486	+0% $-1,734	+5% $-1,982	+10% $-2,230
Rent	-10% $-2,063	-5% $-1,899	+0% $-1,734	+5% $-1,570	+10% $-1,405
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,373	-0.5pp $-1,552	base $-1,734	+0.5pp $-1,920	+1.0pp $-2,109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $179,357
• Closing costs: $21,523
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1504 Brook Ln Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	3896	$7,995	$2.05	37d	1	1.22mi
1320 Hunter Ln Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2696	$3,150	$1.17	4d	1	1.45mi
1717 Green Valley Way Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2508	$2,600	$1.04	0d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $749,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 garage spaces (3 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family property
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 3186

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Lavender plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $717,429 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $717,429 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $717,429 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $717,429 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $717,429 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $717,429 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $717,429 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $717,429 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $717,429 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $717,429 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $717,429 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $717,429 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $717,429 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    pricedays on market $717,429 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $724,429 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $724,429 Active 78 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $724,429 Active 77 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $724,429 Active 76 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $724,429 Active 75 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $724,429 Active 74 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $724,429 Active 73 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $724,429 Active 72 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $724,429 Active 71 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $724,429 Active 70 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $724,429 Active 69 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $724,429 Active 67 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $724,429 Active 66 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $724,429 Active 65 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $724,429 Active 64 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $724,429 Active 63 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $724,429 Active 62 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $724,429 Active 61 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $724,429 Active 60 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $724,429 Active 59 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $724,429 Active 58 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $724,429 Active 57 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on market $724,429 Active 56 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $744,990 Active 54 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $744,990 Active 52 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $744,990 Active 51 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $749,990 Active 48 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $749,990 Active 47 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $749,990 Active 46 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $749,990 Active 45 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $749,990 Active 43 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $749,990 Active 39 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $749,990 Active 38 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $749,990 Active 37 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $749,990 Active 34 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $749,990 Active 33 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,187
• − Property taxes: −$10,761
• − Insurance: −$4,385
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,998
• − Management: −$3,998
• − Depreciation: −$20,871
• Taxable loss: −$34,223
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,214
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This beautiful two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great opportunity for an investor to move in and enjoy luxury living.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Improves curb appeal and enhances home's ambiance ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Marcy B Lykins El F TX #1,243/4,322 Nat'l #17,190/41,679 Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $749,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 garage spaces (3 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family property
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 3186

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Lavender plan)