2811 54th St · Lubbock, TX 79413

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,740 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 170 Days on market

Built 1956 7,800 sqft lot $89/sqft · 12% below area Est $175k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom , 2 bath with a fireplace! rented until July 28, 2026 for 1,600!!

Key facts

• 7,800 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1956

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Parsons El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 396 students, 84% FRL); Atkins Middle (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 542 students, 87% FRL); Monterey H S (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,114 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 60% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.15%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,217
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -11.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-19,443
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-13,923
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79413

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,527 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,583/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,383

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $202	-5% $158	+0% $114	+5% $70	+10% $26
Rent	-10% $-7	-5% $53	+0% $114	+5% $174	+10% $234
Rate	-1.0pp $192	-0.5pp $153	base $114	+0.5pp $74	+1.0pp $33

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2823 54th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1725	$1,825	$1.06	45d	1	0.09mi
2821 61st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1230	$1,100	$0.89	45d	1	0.47mi
3019 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,400	$1.08	22d	1	0.49mi
2817 63rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,250	$1.11	22d	1	0.58mi
2725 63rd St Unit FS Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,599	$0.98	45d	1	0.58mi
2707 63rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,050	$0.97	15d	1	0.60mi
2611 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	45d	1	0.65mi
2815 43rd St Unit 11 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1085	$800	$0.74	22d	1	0.66mi
3105 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,375	$1.02	22d	1	0.68mi
2812 43rd St Unit 7 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1104	$750	$0.68	22d	1	0.69mi
2812 43rd St Unit 6 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1104	$700	$0.63	45d	1	0.69mi
2316 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	22d	1	0.71mi
2121 56th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2047	$1,999	$0.98	22d	1	0.73mi
3236 63rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1818	$1,524	$0.84	15d	1	0.74mi
3312 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1880	$1,795	$0.95	45d	1	0.74mi
2827 66th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,200	$1.01	22d	1	0.76mi
2400 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,225	$1.21	15d	23	0.77mi
3415 49th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,350	$0.96	45d	1	0.78mi
3019 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,250	$1.19	22d	1	0.78mi
3423 56th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2224	$1,895	$0.85	45d	1	0.80mi
2726 68th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1524	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	0.83mi
2730 68th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	2050	$1,999	$0.98	22d	1	0.83mi
2609 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,550	$1.06	22d	1	0.83mi
3417 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	45d	1	0.86mi
2101 51st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$900	$0.82	22d	1	0.88mi
2107 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1956	$1,200	$0.61	45d	1	0.91mi
3505 46th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1686	$1,550	$0.92	45d	1	0.93mi
5330 Kenosha Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,050	$0.81	45d	1	0.93mi
5302 Kenosha Ave Unit 5324 Kenosha Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1300	$950	$0.73	15d	1	0.94mi
5302 Kenosha Ave Unit 5330 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,050	$0.81	45d	1	0.94mi
5202 Kenosha Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0–1.5	1082	$1,022	$0.94	22d	1	0.94mi
5324 Kenosha Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1300	$950	$0.73	15d	1	0.95mi
5018 Kenosha Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1245	$1,275	$1.02	15d	1	0.95mi
3114 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,375	$0.92	45d	1	0.97mi
6711 Hartford Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1165	$975	$0.84	45d	1	1.01mi
3108 39th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,295	$0.86	22d	1	1.01mi
3404 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,500	$1.02	45d	1	1.01mi
6911 Gary Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,125	$0.97	45d	1	1.07mi
3631 54th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1145	$1,099	$0.96	45d	1	1.07mi
2115 66th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2160	$1,795	$0.83	22d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $155,000 Pending 170 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $155,000 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $155,000 Active 164 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $155,000 Active 163 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $155,000 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $155,000 Active 161 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-02-18
    status Active 75-char remark

    Show marketing remark (75 chars)

    4 bedroom , 2 bath with a fireplace! rented until July 28, 2026 for 1,600!!

12. 2026-02-15
    status Pending 75-char remark

    Show marketing remark (75 chars)

    4 bedroom , 2 bath with a fireplace! rented until July 28, 2026 for 1,600!!

13. 2026-02-03
    price $155,000 75-char remark

    Show marketing remark (75 chars)

    4 bedroom , 2 bath with a fireplace! rented until July 28, 2026 for 1,600!!

14. 2025-12-18
    listed $160,000 Active 75-char remark

    Show marketing remark (75 chars)

    4 bedroom , 2 bath with a fireplace! rented until July 28, 2026 for 1,600!!

15. 2025-11-15
    historical $1,800
16. 2025-11-05
    listed $1,800
17. 2025-05-11
    historical $1,600
18. 2025-04-04
    price $1,600
19. 2025-02-12
    price $2,000
20. 2025-02-06
    price $2,200
21. 2025-01-31
    price $2,000
22. 2024-11-05
    listed $2,400
23. 2024-09-05
    historical $1,300
24. 2024-08-06
    price $1,300
25. 2024-06-27
    price $1,600
26. 2024-05-24
    price $1,800
27. 2024-05-09
    listed $1,900
28. 2005-08-01
    soldstatus
29. 1993-10-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,583 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$253/yr (+$21/mo · 9.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,583
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,466
• − Management: −$1,466
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$1,155
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$277
• After-tax cash flow: $1,643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,343
• Household income: $69,400
• Rent vs Own: 43.9% rent · 56.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 18% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.52%
• Current HPI: 239.8854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+8057.9% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-02-15 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $155,000 LARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $160,000 LARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Rental Removed $1,800 BUILDIUM
• 2025-11-05 Listed for Rent $1,800 BUILDIUM
• 2025-05-11 Rental Removed $1,600 BUILDIUM
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $1,600 BUILDIUM
• 2025-02-12 Price Changed $2,000 BUILDIUM
• 2025-02-06 Price Changed $2,200 BUILDIUM
• 2025-01-31 Price Changed $2,000 BUILDIUM
• 2024-11-05 Listed for Rent $2,400 BUILDIUM
• 2024-09-05 Rental Removed $1,300 BUILDIUM
• 2024-08-06 Price Changed $1,300 BUILDIUM
• 2024-06-27 Price Changed $1,600 BUILDIUM
• 2024-05-24 Price Changed $1,800 BUILDIUM
• 2024-05-09 Listed for Rent $1,900 BUILDIUM
• 2005-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,583 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.