804 E Lizzie St · Selma, NC 27576

$184,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 213 Days on market

Built 1950 0.55 ac lot Est $246k · 25% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

Key facts

• Patio seating
• Fenced yard
• New flooring

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• LARGE SHED
• PATIO SEATING
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• NEW FIXTURES
• NEW FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Community workshop area available

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Single‑story house
• Construction: Concrete and stucco construction; Concrete foundation; Shingle roof; Built as a house
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Crawl space basement

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range / free‑standing electric oven; Refrigerator; Oven
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Central air conditioning; Heat pump; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Laundry appliances included: Washer and Dryer; Electric water heater; Exhaust fan
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.6% in Selma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#641 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety B+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Smithfield-Selma High (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #454 of 535 statewide, top 85%, 1,503 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 41% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 277 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $185k implies a 478% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.16%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,856
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
600 E Lizzie St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+4%)	1mo	$204,900	$157	82
509 E Elizabeth St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,253 (+0%)	3mo	$259,900	$207	82
619 Ray St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,291 (+3%)	9mo	$260,000	$201	78
617 Ray St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+6%)	10mo	$260,000	$197	73
621 Ray St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+6%)	10mo	$260,000	$197	73
511 N Webb St	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,172 (-6%)	1mo	$99,000	$84	72
503 Bennett Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,222 (-2%)	6mo	$235,000	$192	67
303 Godwin St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+4%)	9mo	$244,500	$188	67
208 N Sellers St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,122 (-10%)	4mo	$240,000	$214	58
409 N Sellers St #10	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,071 (-14%)	6mo	$206,000	$192	58
401 N Raiford St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,324 (+6%)	9mo	$267,500	$202	56
404 N Massey St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,078 (-14%)	1mo	$195,000	$181	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-21,295
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-7,448
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27576

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,690 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,827/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,518

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $189	+0% $136	+5% $84	+10% $32
Rent	-10% $3	-5% $70	+0% $136	+5% $203	+10% $270
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $183	base $136	+0.5pp $89	+1.0pp $40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Boykin Ave Selma, NC	3.0	3.0	1238	$1,699	$1.37	24d	1	1.04mi
408 Merriman Dr Selma, NC	3.0	2.5	1263	$1,650	$1.31	5d	1	1.08mi
400 Reid Cir Selma, NC	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,580	$1.45	13d	1	1.17mi
1013 W Oak St Selma, NC	2.0	1.0	992	$1,300	$1.31	24d	1	1.18mi
102 Prancer Cir Selma, NC	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,700	$1.36	5d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 214-char remark

   Show marketing remark (214 chars)

   Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

2. 2026-05-13
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (214 chars)

   Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

3. 2026-05-01
   price $184,900

   Show marketing remark (214 chars)

   Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

4. 2026-05-01
   price $184,900 214-char remark

   Show marketing remark (214 chars)

   Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

5. 2026-04-18
   price $194,900 214-char remark

   Show marketing remark (214 chars)

   Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

6. 2026-04-18
   price $194,900

   Show marketing remark (214 chars)

   Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

7. 2026-04-08
   price $199,900 214-char remark

   Show marketing remark (214 chars)

   Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

8. 2026-04-08
   price $199,900

   Show marketing remark (214 chars)

   Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

9. 2026-03-24
   price $204,900 214-char remark

   Show marketing remark (214 chars)

   Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

10. 2026-03-24
    price $204,900

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

11. 2026-03-06
    price $209,900 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

12. 2026-03-06
    price $209,900

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

13. 2026-02-13
    price $212,900

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

14. 2026-02-13
    price $212,900 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

15. 2025-12-07
    price $214,900 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

16. 2025-12-07
    price $214,900

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

17. 2025-11-14
    price $219,900 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

18. 2025-11-14
    price $219,900

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

19. 2025-11-03
    price $223,900 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

20. 2025-11-03
    price $223,900

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

21. 2025-10-24
    price $224,900 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

22. 2025-10-24
    price $224,900

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

23. 2025-10-12
    listed $230,000 Active 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

24. 2025-10-12
    listed $230,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Price improvement and updated. Fenced yard and shed/workshop. New flooring, paint, countertops and fixtures. Washer/dryer/refrigerator are included. Outdoor patio area. Close to major roads, uptown Selma and shops.

25. 1999-07-01
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,827 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,827 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$1,827
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,623
• − Management: −$1,623
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$1,449
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$348
• After-tax cash flow: $1,985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702370
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,912
• Composite: 34.99/100
• National rank: #5052
• State rank: #105 of 178 in NC

Livability — Selma

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #641
• US rank: #23364

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Selma, NC
• County: Johnston County · 175,441 people
• City population: 21,624
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 21,624
• Household income: $66,831
• Rent vs Own: 33.8% rent · 66.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 649.0

Population outlook (Johnston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 222,440 people
• By 2030: 240,227 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 274,616 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 304,915 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 369,507 · +66.1%
• By 2100: 406,280 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 21% Two or more races 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 23% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.7% · R 60.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.2pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.48%
• Current HPI: 234.1407
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+477.8% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-13 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $184,900 TMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $184,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $194,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $194,900 TMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $199,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $199,900 TMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $204,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $204,900 TMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $209,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $209,900 TMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $212,900 TMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $212,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-12-07 Price Changed $214,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-12-07 Price Changed $214,900 TMLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $219,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $219,900 TMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $223,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $223,900 TMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $224,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $224,900 TMLS
• 2025-10-12 Listed $230,000 TMLS
• 2025-10-12 Listed $230,000 Hive MLS
• 1999-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,827 · +110.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.