406 Baldwin Rowe Cir #406 · Lynn Haven, FL 32405

$240,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,654 sqft · Townhouse · 235 Days on market

Built 2007 Good condition $145/sqft · 7% above area Est $223k · 7% over ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom 2.5 bath END unit is located in the gated community of Baldwin Rowe. Kitchen features a breakfast bar, stainless steel appliances, backsplash, and tiled granite countertops. Living room offers beautiful laminate floors, crown molding and sliding glass doors to the screened back patio. There is a 1/2 bath downstairs. The gorgeous master has LVP flooring and an en suite with double vanity. All 3 bedrooms and the laundry room are upstairs. The community has a large clubhouse and pool! HOA fee includes trash, lawn maintenance, pool, clubhouse, accounting, and common areas. All info/sizes are approx, please verify if important!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Screened back patio
• Sliding glass doors

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• BREAKFAST BAR
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• TILED GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• SCREENED BACK PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-470/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.5% in Lynn Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in FL, #1,472 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 382 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.54%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,369
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: 7.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1204 Baldwin Rowe Cir #1204	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,654 (0%)	14mo	$245,000	$148	84
808 Baldwin Rowe Cir #808	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,702 (+3%)	13mo	$240,000	$141	80
1105 Baldwin Rowe Cir #1105	0.09mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,562 (-6%)	14mo	$225,000	$144	70
133 Marin Dr	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,534 (-7%)	4mo	$280,000	$183	63
118 Ridgecrest Ct	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,569 (-5%)	18mo	$251,000	$160	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-45,116
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-57,271
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 382
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,208 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,600/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,258

Max offer price $234,338

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $127	-5% $44	+0% $-39	+5% $-122	+10% $-205
Rent	-10% $-214	-5% $-126	+0% $-39	+5% $48	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $82	-0.5pp $22	base $-39	+0.5pp $-101	+1.0pp $-165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3126 Wood Valley Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1922	$2,800	$1.46	22d	1	0.12mi
108 Baldwin Rowe Cir Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1604	$2,350	$1.47	22d	1	0.13mi
2950 Harrison Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1199	$1,725	$1.44	22d	6	0.23mi
2870 Harrison Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1230	$1,770	$1.44	22d	1	0.30mi
3502 Jenks Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1176	$1,850	$1.57	14d	24	0.70mi
618 Gabriel St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1960	$2,150	$1.10	22d	1	0.98mi
300 W 23rd Pl Unit 1491599P Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1313	$2,592	$1.97	22d	1	1.10mi
3900 Arbor Trace Dr Lynn Haven, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1520	$1,854	$1.22	14d	34	1.19mi
1125 Bradley Cir Lynn Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,850	$1.55	14d	1	1.19mi
2002 Wilson Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,260	$2.31	14d	25	1.33mi
3938 Solano Rd Unit 3938 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,800	$1.24	22d	1	1.39mi
3100 Sweetbay Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$2,168	$2.26	14d	26	1.43mi
2305 Minnesota Ave Lynn Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1692	$1,950	$1.15	14d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,000 Active 235 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $240,000 Active 233 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 232 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 231 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 230 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 229 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $240,000 Active 227 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 226 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,000 Active 224 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $240,000 Active 223 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $240,000 Active 222 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 221 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $240,000 Active 218 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 217 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 216 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 215 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 214 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $240,000 Active 213 DOM
19. 2026-02-28
    price $240,000 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 2.5 bath END unit is located in the gated community of Baldwin Rowe. Kitchen features a breakfast bar, stainless steel appliances, backsplash, and tiled granite countertops. Living room offers beautiful laminate floors, crown molding and sliding glass doors to the screened back patio. There is a 1/2 bath downstairs. The gorgeous master has LVP flooring and an en suite with double vanity. All 3 bedrooms and the laundry room are upstairs. The community has a large clubhouse and pool! HOA fee includes trash, lawn maintenance, pool, clubhouse, accounting, and common areas. All info/sizes are approx, please verify if important!

20. 2025-10-29
    listed $245,000 Active 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 2.5 bath END unit is located in the gated community of Baldwin Rowe. Kitchen features a breakfast bar, stainless steel appliances, backsplash, and tiled granite countertops. Living room offers beautiful laminate floors, crown molding and sliding glass doors to the screened back patio. There is a 1/2 bath downstairs. The gorgeous master has LVP flooring and an en suite with double vanity. All 3 bedrooms and the laundry room are upstairs. The community has a large clubhouse and pool! HOA fee includes trash, lawn maintenance, pool, clubhouse, accounting, and common areas. All info/sizes are approx, please verify if important!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,600
• − Insurance: −$2,702
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,120
• − Management: −$2,120
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$4,467
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,072
• After-tax cash flow: $603/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom townhouse in Baldwin Rowe is in good condition with a good ROI potential for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Both update flooring — modernizes and increases value
• Both install smart home features — attracts tech-savvy buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both update flooring — modernizes and increases value ↑
• Both install smart home features — attracts tech-savvy buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lynn Haven

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1472

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynn Haven, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 21,459
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1008.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $240,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $245,000 CPARMLS