5080 Sandy Clay Ln · Gloucester Courthouse, VA 23061

$94,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1980 1.84 ac lot $76/sqft · 48% below area Est $183k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 5080 Sandy Clay! Here you will find quite country living. This property offers 1.84 acres of land to enjoy! There is a 2 bedroom 2 bath mobile home on the property. The trailer offers a nice amount of living space. Sold AS-IS. Virtual Tour available!

Key facts

• 1.84 acres of land
• 1.84 acre lot
• Built 1980

Tags

• 1.84 ACRES OF LAND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA or association fees indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway space
• Utilities: Septic system; Well water; Electric water heater
• Home design: Detached single-family mobile home; 1 story; Crawl foundation; Simple ownership
• Construction: Composite roof
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Porch; Approximately 1.84 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: 220 V electric outlet (kitchen compatible)
• Bedrooms: First-floor master bedroom
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Walk-in closet; Vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.1% vs local median 3.5% in Gloucester Courthouse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#150 in VA, #4,823 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gloucester County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #37 of 131 in VA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Abingdon Elementary (math 61% / reading 66%, grade B, #460 of 1,108 statewide, top 42%, 441 students, 69% FRL); Gloucester High (math 58% / reading 86%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 1,531 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 29% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 85 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gloucester County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,476 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.60%
• DSCR: 3.03
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $182,948
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: -48.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5483 Gum Fork Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	11mo	$100,000	$74	57
5641 Clay Bank Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+12%)	4mo	$260,000	$187	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $48,910
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.72×
• Total profit: $125,302
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23061

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $349/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $1,010

Break-even live

Break-even rent $717

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,063	-5% $1,037	+0% $1,010	+5% $983	+10% $956
Rent	-10% $852	-5% $931	+0% $1,010	+5% $1,089	+10% $1,167
Rate	-1.0pp $1,058	-0.5pp $1,034	base $1,010	+0.5pp $985	+1.0pp $960

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5187 Oak Creek Cir Gloucester, VA	3.0	2.5	1296	$1,995	$1.54	45d	1	0.17mi
5187 Oak Creek Cir Gloucester, VA	3.0	3.0	1296	$1,995	$1.54	44d	1	0.17mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $94,900 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 20 DOM

   Show marketing remark (261 chars)

   Welcome to 5080 Sandy Clay! Here you will find quite country living. This property offers 1.84 acres of land to enjoy! There is a 2 bedroom 2 bath mobile home on the property. The trailer offers a nice amount of living space. Sold AS-IS. Virtual Tour available!

3. 2026-06-18
   status $94,900 Active 19 DOM

   Show marketing remark (261 chars)

   Welcome to 5080 Sandy Clay! Here you will find quite country living. This property offers 1.84 acres of land to enjoy! There is a 2 bedroom 2 bath mobile home on the property. The trailer offers a nice amount of living space. Sold AS-IS. Virtual Tour available!

4. 2026-05-31
   status $94,900 Under Contract 19 DOM
5. 2026-05-11
   listed $94,900 Active 261-char remark

   Show marketing remark (261 chars)

   Welcome to 5080 Sandy Clay! Here you will find quite country living. This property offers 1.84 acres of land to enjoy! There is a 2 bedroom 2 bath mobile home on the property. The trailer offers a nice amount of living space. Sold AS-IS. Virtual Tour available!

6. 2026-05-11
   listed $94,900 Active 261-char remark

   Show marketing remark (261 chars)

   Welcome to 5080 Sandy Clay! Here you will find quite country living. This property offers 1.84 acres of land to enjoy! There is a 2 bedroom 2 bath mobile home on the property. The trailer offers a nice amount of living space. Sold AS-IS. Virtual Tour available!

7. 2026-05-11
   listed $94,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (261 chars)

   Welcome to 5080 Sandy Clay! Here you will find quite country living. This property offers 1.84 acres of land to enjoy! There is a 2 bedroom 2 bath mobile home on the property. The trailer offers a nice amount of living space. Sold AS-IS. Virtual Tour available!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $349 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $778 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$429/yr (+$36/mo · 123.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$349
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,915
• − Management: −$1,915
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $11,210
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,690
• After-tax cash flow: $9,427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gloucester County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101620
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,815
• Composite: 56.19/100
• National rank: #1177
• State rank: #37 of 131 in VA

Livability — Gloucester Courthouse

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #150
• US rank: #4823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 23,219
• Population (ZIP): 23,219

Population outlook (Gloucester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,437 people
• By 2030: 37,286 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 36,224 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 34,171 · -8.7%
• By 2075: 30,472 · -18.6%
• By 2100: 25,832 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gloucester

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.4) · D 30.4% · R 68.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -38.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.4 2020: R+35.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.9 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.96%
• Current HPI: 175.0236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Relisted — WMLS
• 2026-06-17 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2026-05-30 Pending — CBRAR
• 2026-05-30 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-05-30 Pending — WMLS
• 2026-05-27 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $94,900 CBRAR
• 2026-05-11 Listed $94,900 REINMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $94,900 WMLS

Property tax history

-5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $349 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.