863 W First Ave · Sutherlin, OR 97479

$269,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,524 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1950 6,534 sqft lot Est $398k · 32% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home was completely remodeled and updated! Beautiful kitchen with custom cabinets and counter tops. laminate floors, newer paint, updated bathrooms with walk in showers. Home was used as an adult foster care home and has wide doors and wheelchair access in bathrooms and front ramp. Large rear yard with concrete patio, Kitchen pantry and large laundry area with cabinets. fridge, washer and dryer included.

Key facts

• Manageable yard
• Outdoor living
• Conveniently located

Tags

• HANDICAP-ACCESSIBLE FEATURES
• MANAGEABLE YARD
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Single family residence; Main level area reported as 1,524 (tax records); Lot roughly 0.15 acre
• HOA & community: Zoned R2

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Single-family residence (residential, resale); Main living area on one level; No notable view
• Construction: Built in 1950; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Patio; Lap siding; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Free-standing refrigerator; Electric hot water
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main; Second bedroom on main; Third bedroom on main
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (90% efficiency); Central air conditioning; Electric fuel
• Interior features: Accessible approach with ramp; Accessible full bathroom; Bathroom cabinets; One-level living; Roll-in shower; Utility room on main; Vinyl flooring; Double-pane windows with vinyl frames; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Utility room on main

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($483/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.5% in Sutherlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#135 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Sutherlin SD 130 (town): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #47 of 58 in OR (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: West Sutherlin Intermediate (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #263 of 412 statewide, top 68%, 328 students, 63% FRL); Sutherlin Middle School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #96 of 128 statewide, top 78%, 289 students, 65% FRL); Sutherlin High School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #94 of 143 statewide, top 70%, 361 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 55% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $220k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,158 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.64%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $397,764
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
263 Addison Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-4%)	3mo	$374,500	$257	67
261 Pine St	0.31mi	3/3.0	1,478 (-3%)	10mo	$279,000	$189	64
530 Tanglewood St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,632 (+7%)	2mo	$456,000	$279	63
226 Miller St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-15%)	2mo	$349,900	$269	60
409 S State St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+1%)	4mo	$380,000	$247	58
220 Miller St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-15%)	6mo	$360,000	$277	58
483 S State St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,472 (-3%)	2mo	$425,000	$289	55
375 Johnson St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,322 (-13%)	2mo	$247,500	$187	54
563 Oak Ter	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,677 (+10%)	9mo	$460,000	$274	49
512 Cedar St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-7%)	16mo	$370,000	$261	49
160 E Fifth Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-5%)	9mo	$350,000	$243	46
184 E Third Ave	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,552 (+2%)	13mo	$265,000	$171	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-41,182
• Equity at exit: $40,183

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-32,856
• Equity at exit: $23,301

Cash invested: $75,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97479

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,192 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,413
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,987/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,141

Max offer price $269,500

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $193	-5% $116	+0% $40	+5% $-36	+10% $-112
Rent	-10% $-133	-5% $-46	+0% $40	+5% $127	+10% $213
Rate	-1.0pp $176	-0.5pp $109	base $40	+0.5pp $-30	+1.0pp $-101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,375
• Closing costs: $8,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
751 Dakota St Unit 751-12 Sutherlin, OR	2.0	2.0	1089	$1,995	$1.83	44d	1	0.77mi
351 Dakota St Sutherlin, OR	2.0	2.0	1089	$1,845	$1.69	22d	1	0.88mi
909 Durham Ave Sutherlin, OR	4.0	2.0	1909	$2,900	$1.52	14d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $269,500 Pending 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,500 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,500 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,500 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,500 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,500 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $269,500 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,500 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,500 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,500 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,500 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,500 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-01
    listed $269,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,987 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,614 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$627/yr (+$52/mo · 31.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,096
• − Property taxes: −$1,987
• − Insurance: −$1,348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,104
• − Management: −$2,104
• − Depreciation: −$7,840
• Taxable loss: −$4,179
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,003
• After-tax cash flow: $1,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sutherlin SD 130
• NCES district ID: 4111940
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $40,425
• Composite: 24.79/100
• National rank: #7598
• State rank: #47 of 58 in OR

Livability — Sutherlin

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #7711

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sutherlin, OR
• Population (ZIP): 10,479

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.34%
• Current HPI: 328.8614
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+8.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $269,500 RMLS
• 2020-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2020-03-27 Sold (MLS) $220,000 RMLS
• 2020-02-10 Pending — RMLS
• 2020-01-04 Price Changed $229,900 RMLS
• 2019-09-27 Listed $249,500 RMLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,987 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.