Whitetail Plan · New Caney, TX 77357

$233,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,039 sqft · SingleFamily · 237 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• VERSATILE LOFT
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $233,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $270,746.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $234k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.7% in New Caney — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1516 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 75d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $205,911 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.81%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,746
• List price: $233,990
• Delta: -13.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16523 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5	1,968 (-4%)	3mo	$242,990	$123	77
14718 Frosted Leaf Trl	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,042 (+0%)	0mo	$306,990	$150	76
21714 Southern Valley Ln	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,892 (-7%)	4mo	$294,990	$156	71
21734 Piper Betel Rd	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,042 (+0%)	3mo	$306,990	$150	70
16546 Timberwolf Trl	0.31mi	4/3.0	1,868 (-8%)	2mo	$263,990	$141	68
21718 Southern Valley Ln	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,226 (+9%)	3mo	$324,990	$146	68
14479 Trumpet Ln	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,104 (+3%)	4mo	$318,990	$152	65
16620 Treasure Creek Ln	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-14%)	3mo	$236,990	$135	59
14303 Moonflower Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,173 (+7%)	0mo	$294,990	$136	58
21826 Cypress Vine Dr	0.75mi	4/2.5	2,173 (+7%)	3mo	$284,990	$131	52
21718 Piper Betel Rd	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,750 (-14%)	4mo	$279,990	$160	45
14310 Moonflower Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,750 (-14%)	4mo	$274,590	$157	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-57,208
• Equity at exit: $40,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-82,640
• Equity at exit: $23,409

Cash invested: $75,809 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 201 active · 80 under contract
• Months of supply: 21.5 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $265,990 ($137/sqft)
• Median days on market: 108 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 1516
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,223 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$338 /mo · $4,061/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,368

Max offer price $254,169

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $73	-5% $-21	+0% $-115	+5% $-208	+10% $-302
Rent	-10% $-290	-5% $-202	+0% $-115	+5% $-27	+10% $61
Rate	-1.0pp $22	-0.5pp $-46	base $-115	+0.5pp $-185	+1.0pp $-256

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,687
• Closing costs: $8,122
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21427 Hawthorn Prairie Dr New Caney, TX	4.0	3.0	2532	$2,095	$0.83	57d	1	0.42mi
21655 Cottage Ln New Caney, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,900	$1.38	41d	1	0.42mi
21501 Rustic Elm Dr New Caney, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,825	$1.03	76d	1	0.43mi
21500 Rustic Elm Dr New Caney, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$1,925	$0.89	74d	1	0.45mi
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	165d	1	0.49mi
20759 Central Concave Dr New Caney, TX	4.0	3.0	2292	$2,035	$0.89	41d	1	0.63mi
15127 Willow Tree Ln New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,200	$1.25	90d	1	0.71mi
15171 Willow Tree Ln New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,650	$1.07	107d	1	0.72mi
14939 Cypress Hollow Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,625	$1.12	3d	1	0.92mi
14255 Timber Fields Way Splendora, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$2,195	$1.22	7d	55	0.97mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $233,990 Active 237 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $233,990 Active 236 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $233,990 Active 235 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $233,990 Active 234 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $233,990 Active 233 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $233,990 Active 231 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $233,990 Active 230 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $233,990 Active 229 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $233,990 Active 228 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $233,990 Active 227 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $233,990 Active 226 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $233,990 Active 225 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $233,990 Active 224 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $233,990 Active 223 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $233,990 Active 222 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $233,990 Active 221 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $233,990 Active 220 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $233,990 Active 219 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $233,990 Active 218 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $233,990 Active 217 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $233,990 Active 216 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $233,990 Active 215 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $233,990 Active 214 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $233,990 Active 213 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $233,990 Active 212 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $233,990 Active 211 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $233,990 Active 210 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $233,990 Active 209 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $233,990 Active 208 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $233,990 Active 207 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $233,990 Active 206 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    price $233,990 Active 205 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $238,990 Active 205 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $238,990 Active 204 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $238,990 Active 203 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $238,990 Active 202 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    days on market $238,990 Active 201 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $238,990 Active 200 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $238,990 Active 199 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $238,990 Active 198 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    price $238,990 Active 197 DOM
42. 2026-09-29
    days on market $248,990 Active 197 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $248,990 Active 195 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $248,990 Active 194 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $248,990 Active 193 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $248,990 Active 192 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $248,990 Active 191 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $248,990 Active 190 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $248,990 Active 189 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $248,990 Active 188 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,166
• − Property taxes: −$4,061
• − Insurance: −$1,354
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,134
• − Management: −$2,134
• − Depreciation: −$7,876
• Taxable loss: −$6,045
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,451
• After-tax cash flow: $76/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,195–$30,585 screening

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that could further enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and appeals to buyers ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Piney Woods El F TX #2,982/4,322 Nat'l #29,743/41,679 Middle Splendora J H F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Splendora H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Caney

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 37,592
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $268,990 Zillow