7234 Boggess Rd · Houston, TX 77016

$168,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,236 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 150 Days on market

Built 1953 7,200 sqft lot Est $168k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nicely renovated 3-bedroom 1-bath with updated finishes and a garage.

Key facts

• 7,200 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1953

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($700/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shadydale El (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 631 students, 95% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.49%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,096
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7234 Boggess Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,236 (0%)	1mo	$168,000	$136	99
7321 Wiley Rd	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,262 (+2%)	2mo	$179,900	$143	87
7261 Boggess Rd	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (-5%)	1mo	$110,000	$94	82
10317 Kelburn Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,107 (-10%)	2mo	$175,000	$158	72
6015 Langley Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,245 (+1%)	2mo	$95,000	$76	67
7314 Bigwood St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,122 (-9%)	2mo	$90,000	$80	66
7630 Yoe St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+5%)	2mo	$239,000	$184	64
10507 Royal Oaks Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,311 (+6%)	2mo	$215,000	$164	58
7421 Claiborne St	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,070 (-13%)	0mo	$129,900	$121	55
10329 Wicklowe St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,194 (-3%)	2mo	$149,000	$125	55
7706 Lakewood Dr	0.53mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,084 (-12%)	1mo	$209,000	$193	47
7705 Yoe St	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,388 (+12%)	3mo	$90,000	$65	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $75,959
• Equity at exit: $135,118

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.48×
• Total profit: $210,741
• Equity at exit: $275,679

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,616 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,203/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,542

Max offer price $168,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $153	-5% $106	+0% $58	+5% $11	+10% $-37
Rent	-10% $-69	-5% $-5	+0% $58	+5% $122	+10% $186
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $101	base $58	+0.5pp $15	+1.0pp $-29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7252 Parker Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,650	$1.80	45d	1	0.14mi
7176 Parker Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	45d	1	0.20mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	16d	1	0.32mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	26d	1	0.38mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 222 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$700	$0.71	45d	1	0.56mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$740	$0.75	45d	1	0.56mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	45d	1	0.56mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,865	$2.58	0d	1	0.65mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	10d	1	0.70mi
10329 Wicklowe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,400	$1.11	23d	1	0.72mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	21d	1	0.82mi
9410 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	1d	1	0.84mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	0.84mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	45d	1	1.07mi
9550 N Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,399	$1.56	3d	5	1.11mi
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,000	$1.18	10d	1	1.15mi
6822 Leedale St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	978	$1,500	$1.53	45d	1	1.23mi
9422 Sandra St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1461	$1,875	$1.28	45d	1	1.25mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,450	$1.25	17d	1	1.31mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,525	$1.31	17d	1	1.31mi
8126 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,350	$1.17	26d	1	1.32mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	7d	1	1.34mi
8213 Bigwood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	45d	1	1.36mi
8006 Lynette St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,475	$1.05	26d	1	1.42mi
8302 Caddo Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$1,450	$1.62	45d	1	1.45mi
7601 Springdale St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,200	$0.98	17d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-05
   price $168,000
3. 2025-10-17
   listed $180,000 Active
4. 2021-03-08
   soldstatus
5. 2021-02-26
   soldstatus Sold
6. 2021-02-24
   status Pending
7. 2021-02-22
   listed $158,500 Active
8. 2020-10-27
   soldstatus
9. 2020-10-19
   soldstatus
10. 2020-09-17
    soldstatus
11. 1989-05-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,203 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,203 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,387
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$3,203
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,551
• − Management: −$1,551
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable loss: −$2,056
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$494
• After-tax cash flow: $1,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+6.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $168,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2021-03-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-02-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-02-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-02-22 Listed $158,500 HARMLS
• 2020-10-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-10-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-09-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-05-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,203 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.