Belmont (Pin Oak) Plan · O'Fallon, MO 63368

$75,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,193 sqft · Manufactured · 123 Days on market

Good condition $630/mo HOA · 34% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Belmont offers a smart, spacious layout designed for comfortable everyday living. This thoughtfully designed home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, providing plenty of room for family and guests. At the heart of the home, you'll find a beautiful, well-appointed kitchen that flows seamlessly into an expansive living area with extended length-perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or creating flexible spaces to fit your lifestyle. With its open design and generous proportions, the Belmont delivers both functionality and style in a home that truly feels inviting.

Key facts

• Listed 122 days

🏗️ New construction. The $75,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $133,616.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $76k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in O'Fallon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 374 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $924 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; HOA is 34% of rent.

Recommended offer $66,875 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.20%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,616
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
472 Cardow Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,340 (+12%)	15mo	$150,000	$112	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-30,169
• Equity at exit: $19,923

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-43,039
• Equity at exit: $11,553

Cash invested: $37,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63368

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,840 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$701
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$167 /mo · $2,004/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$630
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,966

Max offer price $119,172

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-7	-5% $-54	+0% $-100	+5% $-146	+10% $-192
Rent	-10% $-245	-5% $-173	+0% $-100	+5% $-27	+10% $46
Rate	-1.0pp $-33	-0.5pp $-66	base $-100	+0.5pp $-134	+1.0pp $-170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,404
• Closing costs: $4,008
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
440 Wild Oak Dr O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.5	1214	$1,625	$1.34	12d	1	0.21mi
314 Newbridge Way O Fallon, MO	3.0	2.5	1363	$2,100	$1.54	3d	1	0.21mi
13300 Spring Creek Ln O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,450	$1.42	8d	1	0.31mi
60 Mora Blvd O Fallon, MO	3.0	2.5	1363	$2,150	$1.58	24d	1	0.35mi
9201 Spring Creek Ln Unit 9201 O'Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,600	$1.58	5d	1	0.37mi
9200 Spring Creek Ln O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,450	$1.43	44d	1	0.37mi
6303 Spring River Dr O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,697	$1.67	44d	1	0.57mi
4103 Spring River Dr Unit 4103 O'Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,600	$1.52	17d	1	0.59mi
234 Harmony Meadows Ct O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	24d	1	0.64mi
214 Harmony Meadows Ct O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	18d	1	0.64mi
284 Stonewall Creek Dr O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,575	$1.47	44d	1	0.89mi
101 Lemon Dr Lake St Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$2,228	$2.22	2d	16	0.90mi
55 Timber Oaks Trl O'Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	985	$1,600	$1.62	44d	1	0.93mi
104 Shire Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1462	$2,781	$1.90	5d	1	1.37mi
100 Big River Dr Lake St Louis, MO	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1349	$2,717	$2.01	44d	1	1.39mi
4133 Welsh Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,600	$1.42	44d	1	1.44mi
1124 Welsh Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,495	$1.32	44d	1	1.45mi
5114 Welsh Dr Lake St Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1114	$1,450	$1.30	15d	1	1.46mi
5114 Welsh Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1114	$1,450	$1.30	11d	1	1.46mi
5123 Welsh Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,425	$1.26	8d	1	1.46mi
603 Country Village Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,825	$1.47	11d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $630 · $7,560/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,995 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,995 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,995 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,995 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,995 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,995 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,995 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,995 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,995 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,995 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,995 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,995 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,995 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,995 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-02-16
    listed $75,995 Active 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    The Belmont offers a smart, spacious layout designed for comfortable everyday living. This thoughtfully designed home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, providing plenty of room for family and guests. At the heart of the home, you'll find a beautiful, well-appointed kitchen that flows seamlessly into an expansive living area with extended length-perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or creating flexible spaces to fit your lifestyle. With its open design and generous proportions, the Belmont delivers both functionality and style in a home that truly feels inviting.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,485
• − Property taxes: −$2,004
• − Insurance: −$668
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,766
• − Management: −$1,766
• − HOA: −$7,560
• − Depreciation: −$3,887
• Taxable loss: −$3,057
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$734
• After-tax cash flow: $-464/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a smart, spacious layout. It offers a well-maintained interior and exterior, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Add a small front porch or patio — Can increase the home's appeal and functionality for both resale and rental purposes.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add a small front porch or patio — Can increase the home's appeal and functionality for both resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wentzville R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2931650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,961
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2994
• State rank: #32 of 324 in MO

Livability — O'Fallon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: O'Fallon, MO
• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 45,862
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 46,966
• Household income: $124,297
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 538.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 5% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.32%
• Current HPI: 219.7731
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Listed $75,995 Zillow