Hayden Plan · Ruskin, FL 34219

$393,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,605 sqft · SingleFamily · 208 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This two-story, all concrete block constructed home has a large open-concept downstairs with a kitchen overlooking the living and dining room. The kitchen comes equipped with a refrigerator, electric range, microwave and built-in dishwasher. The first floor also features a flex room that provides an area for work or for play, a bedroom, full bathroom, and an outdoor patio. The second floor includes an expansive Bedroom 1, three additional bedrooms that surround a second living area, a third full bathroom, and a laundry room equipped with a washer and dryer.

Key facts

• Second living area
• Flex room
• Expansive bedroom 1

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DOWNSTAIRS
• FLEX ROOM
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• EXPANSIVE BEDROOM 1
• SECOND LIVING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 10529 Grain Silo Trl, Parrish FL 34219; Listing provided by Zillow; information deemed reliable but not guaranteed
• Financial info: List price $393,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home plan (Hayden); Active new construction listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2605

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Hayden)

🏗️ New construction. The $393,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $484,530.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $394k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-659 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $389k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $340k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $340k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($347k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $340,440 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.83%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $484,530
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9972 Morning Meadowlark Trl	0.17mi	5/3.0	2,447 (-6%)	1mo	$394,000	$161	81
10409 Woodland Garden Way	0.07mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,795 (+7%)	0mo	$525,000	$188	77
10640 Rabbit Grove Trl	0.09mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,795 (+7%)	1mo	$502,000	$180	76
10628 Rabbit Grove Trl	0.11mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,795 (+7%)	0mo	$520,000	$186	76
10625 Fern Hollow Run	0.13mi	5/3.0	2,934 (+13%)	1mo	$441,000	$150	72
10429 Abundance Grove Way	0.60mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,631 (+1%)	0mo	$399,900	$152	65
10729 Monarch Wood Gln	0.36mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-13%)	0mo	$366,160	$162	54
11414 Starling Song Pl	0.73mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,486 (-5%)	0mo	$480,000	$193	53
9837 Trellis Vine Way	0.51mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,262 (-13%)	0mo	$440,730	$195	49
10717 Spanish Needle Cv	0.65mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,333 (-10%)	0mo	$408,500	$175	43
10049 Hidden Hammock Loop	0.60mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,226 (-14%)	1mo	$430,000	$193	42
10029 Hidden Hammock Loop	0.67mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,226 (-14%)	1mo	$455,647	$205	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-130,412
• Equity at exit: $72,245

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.52×
• Total profit: $-205,955
• Equity at exit: $41,893

Cash invested: $135,668 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,404 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,541
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$606 /mo · $7,268/yr
• Insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$715
• Net cashflow: $-659

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,239

Max offer price $389,171

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,132
• Closing costs: $14,536
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9544 Sandy Bluffs Cir Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2557	$2,950	$1.15	3d	1	0.73mi
11512 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1929	$3,300	$1.71	23d	1	1.05mi
10749 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,549	$1.04	23d	1	1.12mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	3d	1	1.15mi
10935 Gentle Current Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,900	$1.50	23d	1	1.23mi
8614 Mercator Ct Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2910	$3,300	$1.13	23d	1	1.35mi
8541 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2389	$2,800	$1.17	10d	1	1.44mi
8818 Gulf Shore Ter Parrish, FL	6.0	3.0	3326	$3,250	$0.98	3d	1	1.45mi
8031 111th Ter E Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	3067	$4,150	$1.35	23d	1	1.46mi
8505 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,750	$1.47	16d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $393,990 Active 208 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $393,990 Active 207 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $393,990 Active 206 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $393,990 Active 205 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $393,990 Active 203 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $393,990 Active 202 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $393,990 Active 200 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $393,990 Active 199 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $393,990 Active 198 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $393,990 Active 197 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $393,990 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $393,990 Active 192 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $393,990 Active 191 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $393,990 Active 190 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,141
• − Property taxes: −$7,268
• − Insurance: −$2,423
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,268
• − Management: −$3,268
• − Depreciation: −$14,095
• Taxable loss: −$16,611
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,987
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B