9515 Spring Rose Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

$524,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,955 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 2015 7,919 sqft lot $178/sqft · 14% below area Est $608k · 14% under $132/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained home in Sienna Village zoned to highly regarded schools. This well-designed floor plan offers an open-concept living, dining, and kitchen space filled with natural light, plus a private study just off the main living area—ideal for working from home. The kitchen features ample cabinetry, granite counters, and a large island for gathering. The spacious primary suite includes a spa-like bath and an oversized walk-in closet. Step outside to a covered back patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining, overlooking a backyard with no rear neighbors—just peaceful wooded views. A charming, move-in ready home in a prime location. Also, with easy access back to Sienna Parkway. Don't miss out on this beautiful home by scheduling a showing today!

Key facts

• Spa-like bath
• Ample cabinetry
• Large island

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• PRIVATE STUDY
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• LARGE ISLAND
• SPA-LIKE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-919 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $363k (30.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $445k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $363k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($493k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $362,528 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.50%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $607,869
• List price: $524,900
• Delta: -13.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10018 Foggy Riv	0.46mi	3/3.5	2,944 (-0%)	1mo	$449,999	$153	76
2610 Lazy Vine Ln	0.29mi	4/4.5 (+1)	2,907 (-2%)	1mo	$715,000	$246	72
9507 Shaded Tree Dr	0.44mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,935 (-1%)	4mo	$445,000	$152	68
10023 Starhill Ct	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,930 (-1%)	4mo	$450,000	$154	66
9418 San Marco Dr	0.17mi	4/4.5 (+1)	3,266 (+10%)	4mo	$745,000	$228	60
9010 Bayou Spring Ct	0.49mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,180 (+8%)	1mo	$605,000	$190	59
10143 Deerpark Dr	0.65mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,874 (-3%)	2mo	$475,000	$165	56
10039 Cypress Path	0.36mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,348 (+13%)	0mo	$585,000	$175	54
1506 Country Air Ln	0.73mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,808 (-5%)	4mo	$425,000	$151	48
1939 Creekwood Cv	0.43mi	4/4.0 (+1)	3,344 (+13%)	2mo	$594,990	$178	47
8815 Iron Forge Rd	0.57mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,275 (+11%)	2mo	$535,000	$163	46
8726 Windsong Trail Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,517 (-15%)	5mo	$359,900	$143	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-126,170
• Equity at exit: $110,087

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-206,248
• Equity at exit: $101,967

Cash invested: $146,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1229
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,453 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax from tax record: −$1,334 /mo · $16,006/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$132
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$935
• Net cashflow: $-919

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,617

Max offer price $362,528

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-622	-5% $-771	+0% $-919	+5% $-1,068	+10% $-1,216
Rent	-10% $-1,271	-5% $-1,095	+0% $-919	+5% $-743	+10% $-567
Rate	-1.0pp $-655	-0.5pp $-786	base $-919	+0.5pp $-1,055	+1.0pp $-1,194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,225
• Closing costs: $15,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9006 Meadow Bridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	3958	$6,580	$1.66	5d	1	0.55mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	0d	1	0.55mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	24d	1	0.68mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	45d	1	0.84mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	12d	1	0.86mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $132 · $1,584/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $524,900 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $524,900 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $524,900 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $524,900 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $524,900 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $524,900 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $524,900 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $524,900 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $524,900 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $524,900 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $524,900 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $524,900 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $524,900 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $524,900 777-char remark

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    Beautifully maintained home in Sienna Village zoned to highly regarded schools. This well-designed floor plan offers an open-concept living, dining, and kitchen space filled with natural light, plus a private study just off the main living area—ideal for working from home. The kitchen features ample cabinetry, granite counters, and a large island for gathering. The spacious primary suite includes a spa-like bath and an oversized walk-in closet. Step outside to a covered back patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining, overlooking a backyard with no rear neighbors—just peaceful wooded views. A charming, move-in ready home in a prime location. Also, with easy access back to Sienna Parkway. Don't miss out on this beautiful home by scheduling a showing today!

15. 2026-03-24
    listed $549,990 Active 777-char remark

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    Beautifully maintained home in Sienna Village zoned to highly regarded schools. This well-designed floor plan offers an open-concept living, dining, and kitchen space filled with natural light, plus a private study just off the main living area—ideal for working from home. The kitchen features ample cabinetry, granite counters, and a large island for gathering. The spacious primary suite includes a spa-like bath and an oversized walk-in closet. Step outside to a covered back patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining, overlooking a backyard with no rear neighbors—just peaceful wooded views. A charming, move-in ready home in a prime location. Also, with easy access back to Sienna Parkway. Don't miss out on this beautiful home by scheduling a showing today!

16. 2016-04-20
    soldstatus Sold 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Downsize, don't Downgrade! Trendmaker's popular Villas Patio Homes have arrived in Sienna Plantation! This 1 story home features a stucco and stucco elevation, enlarged patio, an open-concept living and dining space, plentiful storage, a 3-Car Garage, stone fireplace to ceiling w/ raised hearth. The Designer Kitchen finishes include granite countertop, marble backsplash, double oven, stainless steel appliances & pot filler. Wood flooring in entry, powder, study, family, kitchen & breakfast.

17. 2015-12-15
    status Pending 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Downsize, don't Downgrade! Trendmaker's popular Villas Patio Homes have arrived in Sienna Plantation! This 1 story home features a stucco and stucco elevation, enlarged patio, an open-concept living and dining space, plentiful storage, a 3-Car Garage, stone fireplace to ceiling w/ raised hearth. The Designer Kitchen finishes include granite countertop, marble backsplash, double oven, stainless steel appliances & pot filler. Wood flooring in entry, powder, study, family, kitchen & breakfast.

18. 2015-12-12
    price $507,885 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Downsize, don't Downgrade! Trendmaker's popular Villas Patio Homes have arrived in Sienna Plantation! This 1 story home features a stucco and stucco elevation, enlarged patio, an open-concept living and dining space, plentiful storage, a 3-Car Garage, stone fireplace to ceiling w/ raised hearth. The Designer Kitchen finishes include granite countertop, marble backsplash, double oven, stainless steel appliances & pot filler. Wood flooring in entry, powder, study, family, kitchen & breakfast.

19. 2015-12-01
    listed $493,650 Active 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Downsize, don't Downgrade! Trendmaker's popular Villas Patio Homes have arrived in Sienna Plantation! This 1 story home features a stucco and stucco elevation, enlarged patio, an open-concept living and dining space, plentiful storage, a 3-Car Garage, stone fireplace to ceiling w/ raised hearth. The Designer Kitchen finishes include granite countertop, marble backsplash, double oven, stainless steel appliances & pot filler. Wood flooring in entry, powder, study, family, kitchen & breakfast.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $16,006 · $1,334/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $16,006 · $1,334/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,403
• − Property taxes: −$16,006
• − Insurance: −$2,624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,275
• − Management: −$4,275
• − HOA: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$15,270
• Taxable loss: −$19,999
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,800
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+6.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $524,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $549,990 HARMLS
• 2016-04-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-12-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-12-12 Price Changed $507,885 HARMLS
• 2015-12-01 Listed $493,650 HARMLS

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $16,006 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.