🌊 Lakefront
5001 W Florida Ave · Hemet, CA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 7/10 · Major
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $659 – $1,223
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 105°F)
- 3 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 9 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Unhealthy air days now
- 9 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 11 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Rent growth +3.4/5.0
- Livability +2.6/5.0
- Schools +2.5/10.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- ARV discount +0.0/15.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$74,995
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Price: $74,995.00 Space Rent is $1,245.00 Mobile Home with Natural Paradise, Lake Front & amp; Waterfalls Views Cascading Down Natural Boulders!!! Located in: The Lakes at Hemet West (92545) Listed By: For Sale By Owner Acceptable Terms: Cash or New Loan, Will Not Carry Back, No Owner Financing. Pre Qualified Buyers Will Be Offered to Set Up a Private Showing. Appointments Only! Very Rare Opportunity!!! MOBILE HOME, 55+ Senior Park Younger Partner/Spouse: A person under 55 (but 45+) can live there if they are a spouse, cohabitant, or providing primary physical/economic support to the 55+ resident. Not a Spouse: The person does not need to be married to the 55+ resident; a &
Key facts
- 9 hole golf course
- Lake front clubhouse
- Waterfalls views
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
- Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 23.5% vs local median 4.8% in Hemet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,056 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
- Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Zoned schools: Harmony Elementary (684 students, 84% FRL); Diamond Valley Middle (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #474 of 498 statewide, top 99%, 1,078 students, 91% FRL); West Valley High (math 18% / reading 40%, grade F, #770 of 1,170 statewide, top 66%, 1,898 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 66% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 292 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 6 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $54k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 3→9/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
- What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
- Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 2.62% ✓
- Cap rate
- 23.51%
- Cash-on-cash
- 61.50%
- DSCR
- 3.74
- GRM
- 3.2
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $63,099
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5001 W Florida #476 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 | 1,120 (-2%) | 2mo | $45,000 | $40 | 95 |
| 5001 W Florida Ave #230 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 | 1,152 (+1%) | 6mo | $45,000 | $39 | 93 |
| 5001 W Florida Ave #665 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 | 1,248 (+10%) | 7mo | $40,000 | $32 | 79 |
| 5001 Florida Ave #663 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 | 1,243 (+9%) | 10mo | $74,900 | $60 | 77 |
| 5001 W Florida Ave #545 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 | 1,248 (+10%) | 9mo | $45,000 | $36 | 77 |
| 5001 W Florida Ave #723 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 | 1,248 (+10%) | 10mo | $42,000 | $34 | 76 |
| 5001 W Florida #695 | 0.10mi | 2/2.0 | 1,248 (+10%) | 5mo | $45,000 | $36 | 75 |
| 5001 W Florida Ave #175 | 0.00mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,248 (+10%) | 6mo | $90,000 | $72 | 74 |
| 5001 W Florida Ave #122 | 0.10mi | 2/2.0 | 1,296 (+14%) | 0mo | $52,500 | $41 | 72 |
| 4400 W FLORIDA Ave #254 | 0.54mi | 2/2.0 | 1,152 (+1%) | 9mo | $88,000 | $76 | 66 |
| 4400 W Florida #215 | 0.54mi | 2/2.0 | 1,076 (-6%) | 2mo | $70,000 | $65 | 64 |
| 5001 W Florida Ave #22 | 0.17mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,248 (+10%) | 13mo | $95,000 | $76 | 61 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.74% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 61.2%
- Equity multiple
- 3.76×
- Total profit
- $57,873
- Equity at exit
- $11,182
- IRR
- 66.0%
- Equity multiple
- 7.90×
- Total profit
- $144,820
- Equity at exit
- $6,484
Cash invested: $20,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
- State California
- 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 92545
- Home prices YoY
- -24.6%
- Rents YoY
- 3.7%
- Active inventory
- 292
- Price-to-rent
- 3.2×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,966 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$393
- Tax from tax record
- −$53 /mo · $631/yr
- Insurance
- −$31
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$413
- Net cashflow
- $1,076
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $1,119 | -5% $1,097 | +0% $1,076 | +5% $1,055 | +10% $1,034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $921 | -5% $999 | +0% $1,076 | +5% $1,154 | +10% $1,232 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $1,114 | -0.5pp $1,095 | base $1,076 | +0.5pp $1,057 | +1.0pp $1,037 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $18,749
- Closing costs
- $2,250
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 5 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4400 W Florida Ave Spc 26 Hemet, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1193 | $1,699 | $1.42 | 16d | 1 | 0.51mi |
| 4400 W Florida Ave Unit 86 Hemet, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1310 | $1,800 | $1.37 | 45d | 1 | 0.54mi |
| 3800 W Devonshire Ave Hemet, CA | 3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 816 | $2,172 | $2.66 | 0d | 7 | 1.07mi |
| 3030 W Acacia Ave Hemet, CA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 807 | $1,780 | $2.20 | 0d | 8 | 1.25mi |
| 3471 Dublin Ct Hemet, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1276 | $2,895 | $2.27 | 5d | 1 | 1.39mi |
Listing history 27 events
-
2026-06-21days on market $74,995 Active 40 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $74,995 Active 37 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $74,995 Active 36 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $74,995 Active 35 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $74,995 Active 34 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $74,995 Active 32 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $74,995 Active 28 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $74,995 Active 27 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $74,995 Active 26 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $74,995 Active 23 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $74,995 Active 22 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $74,995 Active 21 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $74,995 Active 20 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $74,995 Active 19 DOM
-
2026-05-12$74,995 Active 3639-char remark
-
2026-05-05historical
-
2026-04-27price $25,000
-
2026-03-26$38,000 Active
-
2022-05-28historical
-
2022-05-12$75,000 Active
-
2021-09-29historical
-
2021-08-31price $65,000
-
2021-07-27$70,000 Active
-
2011-10-26historical Hold
-
2011-10-20$17,500 Active
-
2002-06-11soldstatus $53,750
-
2002-05-02$57,900
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $631 · $53/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $631 · $53/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 7/10 Severe
- Heat 7/10 Severe 3 d/yr ≥105°F today · 9 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $23,596
- − Mortgage interest
- −$4,201
- − Property taxes
- −$631
- − Insurance
- −$375
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,888
- − Management
- −$1,888
- − Depreciation
- −$2,182
- Taxable income
- $12,431
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$2,984
- After-tax cash flow
- $9,931/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Hemet Unified
- NCES district ID
- 0616920
- Math proficiency
- 19% ▼ -3.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 41% ▲ 4.00%
- Median HH income
- $39,962
- Composite
- 25.16/100
- National rank
- #7517
- State rank
- #360 of 517 in CA
Livability — Hemet
- Score
- 51/100
- State rank
- #1056
- US rank
- #25208
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Hemet, CA
- County
- Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
- City population
- 137,670
- Metro
- Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
- Population (ZIP)
- 45,982
- Household income
- $63,770
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1813.0
Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 2,664,475 people
- By 2030
- 2,802,692 · +5.2%
- By 2040
- 3,050,904 · +14.5%
- By 2050
- 3,256,783 · +22.2%
- By 2075
- 3,655,058 · +37.2%
- By 2100
- 3,766,594 · +41.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
- Race & ethnicity
- Hispanic / Latino 46% White 35% Two or more races 17% Black 8% Asian 5% Native American 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 40%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
- Foreign-born
- 19% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
- Languages at home
- 69% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Riverside
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -116.25%
- Current HPI
- 356.9414
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 3.74%
- Metro
- Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.21%
- F500 in state
- 116
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 27 | $1,492B |
|
||
| Financial Services | 3 | $174B |
|
||
| Retail | 3 | $44B |
|
||
| Insurance | 3 | $26B |
|
||
| Media / Entertainment | 2 | $115B |
|
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| Pharmaceuticals / Biotech | 2 | $62B |
|
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Price history
+29.5% since first listed13 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-12 Listed $74,995 FSBO.com
- 2026-05-05 Listing Removed — CRMLS
- 2026-04-27 Price Changed $25,000 CRMLS
- 2026-03-26 Listed $38,000 CRMLS
- 2022-05-28 Listing Removed — CRMLS
- 2022-05-12 Listed $75,000 CRMLS
- 2021-09-29 Listing Removed — CRMLS
- 2021-08-31 Price Changed $65,000 CRMLS
- 2021-07-27 Listed $70,000 CRMLS
- 2011-10-26 Delisted — CRMLS
- 2011-10-20 Listed $17,500 CRMLS
- 2002-06-11 Sold (MLS) $53,750 CRMLS
- 2002-05-02 Listed $57,900 CRMLS
Property tax history
-1.7%/yrLatest (2025): $631 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…