11958 Greensbrook Forest Dr · Houston, TX 77044

$159,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 722 Days on market

Built 2003 4,399 sqft lot $135/sqft · at area comps Est $156k · at est. $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely single-story home available in the Northeast Houston area. 11958 Greensbrook Forest Dr boasts three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and 1,188 Sq. Ft. of living space, this is the perfect starter home for an. The family room is a cozy space, and the kitchen is fully functional with white cabinets, vinyl flooring, and a center island. There is also an attached single-car garage. This location offers you so many amenities and attractions. Sheldon Lake State Park and Eisenhower Park are within 6 miles. There is a Showbiz Cinema with a bowling alley down the road and the Westlake Marketplace and Redemption Square are less than 10 minutes away where you will be able to enjoy some quality shopping and upscale dining. H-E-B, Kroger, and Walmart Supercenter are also all close by. Here you will also have quick and convenient access to Beltway 8 and Alt-90.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Attached garage
• Cozy family room

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• COZY FAMILY ROOM
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• AMENITIES NEARBY
• SHELDON LAKE STATE PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Garrett El (math 17% / reading 19%, grade F, #3,785 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 672 students, 92% FRL); Michael R Null Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 1,164 students, 89% FRL); C E King H S (math 19% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,473 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 72% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 340 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 722 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,799 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 722 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.03%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,408
• List price: $159,999
• Delta: 2.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11958 Greensbrook Forest Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,188 (0%)	0mo	$159,999	$135	100
11954 Greensbrook Forest Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,188 (0%)	4mo	$125,000	$105	97
11818 Kingslake Forest Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,188 (0%)	1mo	$68,000	$57	96
11722 Greenglen Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,188 (0%)	1mo	$169,000	$142	89
11850 Greencanyon Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,128 (-5%)	2mo	$185,000	$164	78
11738 Greencanyon Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+4%)	4mo	$159,900	$130	78
11907 Greensbrook Forest Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-9%)	3mo	$159,000	$147	77
11950 Greensbrook Forest Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-9%)	10mo	$139,900	$130	76
11839 Greencanyon Dr	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,136 (-4%)	8mo	$90,000	$79	71
11715 Greenglen Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-9%)	5mo	$140,000	$130	69
11915 Greenmesa Dr	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-12%)	10mo	$130,000	$124	60
11718 Greenmesa Dr	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,036 (-13%)	10mo	$135,000	$130	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-10,200
• Equity at exit: $34,171

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,681
• Equity at exit: $32,213

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,796 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$346 /mo · $4,151/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,606

Max offer price $159,999

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $196	+0% $151	+5% $105	+10% $60
Rent	-10% $9	-5% $80	+0% $151	+5% $221	+10% $292
Rate	-1.0pp $231	-0.5pp $191	base $151	+0.5pp $109	+1.0pp $67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11950 Greensbrook Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,500	$1.39	20d	1	0.02mi
11711 Greenglen Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,603	$1.48	3d	1	0.23mi
12211 Haroldson Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	958	$1,619	$1.69	4d	1	0.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,999 Active 722 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,999 Active 721 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,999 Active 720 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,999 Active 719 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,999 Active 717 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,999 Active 713 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,999 Active 712 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,999 Active 711 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $159,999 Active 708 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,999 Active 707 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,999 Active 706 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,999 Active 705 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,999 Active 704 DOM
14. 2026-04-10
    price $159,999 858-char remark

    Show marketing remark (858 chars)

    Lovely single-story home available in the Northeast Houston area. 11958 Greensbrook Forest Dr boasts three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and 1,188 Sq. Ft. of living space, this is the perfect starter home for an. The family room is a cozy space, and the kitchen is fully functional with white cabinets, vinyl flooring, and a center island. There is also an attached single-car garage. This location offers you so many amenities and attractions. Sheldon Lake State Park and Eisenhower Park are within 6 miles. There is a Showbiz Cinema with a bowling alley down the road and the Westlake Marketplace and Redemption Square are less than 10 minutes away where you will be able to enjoy some quality shopping and upscale dining. H-E-B, Kroger, and Walmart Supercenter are also all close by. Here you will also have quick and convenient access to Beltway 8 and Alt-90.

15. 2026-04-08
    status Active 858-char remark

    Show marketing remark (858 chars)

    Lovely single-story home available in the Northeast Houston area. 11958 Greensbrook Forest Dr boasts three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and 1,188 Sq. Ft. of living space, this is the perfect starter home for an. The family room is a cozy space, and the kitchen is fully functional with white cabinets, vinyl flooring, and a center island. There is also an attached single-car garage. This location offers you so many amenities and attractions. Sheldon Lake State Park and Eisenhower Park are within 6 miles. There is a Showbiz Cinema with a bowling alley down the road and the Westlake Marketplace and Redemption Square are less than 10 minutes away where you will be able to enjoy some quality shopping and upscale dining. H-E-B, Kroger, and Walmart Supercenter are also all close by. Here you will also have quick and convenient access to Beltway 8 and Alt-90.

16. 2026-03-10
    status Pending 858-char remark

    Show marketing remark (858 chars)

    Lovely single-story home available in the Northeast Houston area. 11958 Greensbrook Forest Dr boasts three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and 1,188 Sq. Ft. of living space, this is the perfect starter home for an. The family room is a cozy space, and the kitchen is fully functional with white cabinets, vinyl flooring, and a center island. There is also an attached single-car garage. This location offers you so many amenities and attractions. Sheldon Lake State Park and Eisenhower Park are within 6 miles. There is a Showbiz Cinema with a bowling alley down the road and the Westlake Marketplace and Redemption Square are less than 10 minutes away where you will be able to enjoy some quality shopping and upscale dining. H-E-B, Kroger, and Walmart Supercenter are also all close by. Here you will also have quick and convenient access to Beltway 8 and Alt-90.

17. 2025-05-14
    price $165,999 858-char remark

    Show marketing remark (858 chars)

    Lovely single-story home available in the Northeast Houston area. 11958 Greensbrook Forest Dr boasts three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and 1,188 Sq. Ft. of living space, this is the perfect starter home for an. The family room is a cozy space, and the kitchen is fully functional with white cabinets, vinyl flooring, and a center island. There is also an attached single-car garage. This location offers you so many amenities and attractions. Sheldon Lake State Park and Eisenhower Park are within 6 miles. There is a Showbiz Cinema with a bowling alley down the road and the Westlake Marketplace and Redemption Square are less than 10 minutes away where you will be able to enjoy some quality shopping and upscale dining. H-E-B, Kroger, and Walmart Supercenter are also all close by. Here you will also have quick and convenient access to Beltway 8 and Alt-90.

18. 2024-09-09
    price $174,599 858-char remark

    Show marketing remark (858 chars)

    Lovely single-story home available in the Northeast Houston area. 11958 Greensbrook Forest Dr boasts three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and 1,188 Sq. Ft. of living space, this is the perfect starter home for an. The family room is a cozy space, and the kitchen is fully functional with white cabinets, vinyl flooring, and a center island. There is also an attached single-car garage. This location offers you so many amenities and attractions. Sheldon Lake State Park and Eisenhower Park are within 6 miles. There is a Showbiz Cinema with a bowling alley down the road and the Westlake Marketplace and Redemption Square are less than 10 minutes away where you will be able to enjoy some quality shopping and upscale dining. H-E-B, Kroger, and Walmart Supercenter are also all close by. Here you will also have quick and convenient access to Beltway 8 and Alt-90.

19. 2024-05-28
    listed $179,999 Active 858-char remark

    Show marketing remark (858 chars)

    Lovely single-story home available in the Northeast Houston area. 11958 Greensbrook Forest Dr boasts three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and 1,188 Sq. Ft. of living space, this is the perfect starter home for an. The family room is a cozy space, and the kitchen is fully functional with white cabinets, vinyl flooring, and a center island. There is also an attached single-car garage. This location offers you so many amenities and attractions. Sheldon Lake State Park and Eisenhower Park are within 6 miles. There is a Showbiz Cinema with a bowling alley down the road and the Westlake Marketplace and Redemption Square are less than 10 minutes away where you will be able to enjoy some quality shopping and upscale dining. H-E-B, Kroger, and Walmart Supercenter are also all close by. Here you will also have quick and convenient access to Beltway 8 and Alt-90.

20. 2013-04-04
    soldstatus
21. 1997-06-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,151 · $346/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,151 · $346/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,557
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$4,151
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,725
• − Management: −$1,725
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$664
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$159
• After-tax cash flow: $1,966/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sheldon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,443
• Composite: 19.5/100
• National rank: #8772
• State rank: #746 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $159,999 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $165,999 HARMLS
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $174,599 HARMLS
• 2024-05-28 Listed $179,999 HARMLS
• 2013-04-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-06-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,151 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.