404 E Newland Dr · Robinson, TX 76706

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,808 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1946 1.63 ac lot $69/sqft · 64% below area ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling all investors! Rare opportunity to own a fixer-upper on acreage featuring a workshop and large tank. This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an upstairs flex room with endless potential for additional living space, office, or bonus room. Property is being sold as-is and is ideal for renovation, rental, or resale. Hard-to-find land with improvements—bring your vision and make it yours.

Key facts

• Upstairs flex room
• Improvements
• Hard-to-find land

Tags

• WORKSHOP
• UPSTAIRS FLEX ROOM
• ADDITIONAL LIVING SPACE
• HARD-TO-FIND LAND
• IMPROVEMENTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.2% in Robinson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#349 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Waco ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #773 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 317 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,564/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 3883% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.27%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,615
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -63.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
488 Hawkins Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,789 (-1%)	2mo	$379,000	$212	68
525 Rio Bonito Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,865 (+3%)	10mo	$385,000	$206	60
465 Rio Bonito Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,791 (-1%)	15mo	$324,900	$181	57
500 Hawkins Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,727 (-4%)	10mo	$350,000	$203	57
516 Celeste Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,870 (+3%)	6mo	$360,000	$193	53
382 Violet Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,920 (+6%)	8mo	$389,000	$203	52
391 Cavitt Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,740 (-4%)	19mo	$349,999	$201	50
108 E Santa Anna Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,657 (-8%)	2mo	$139,000	$84	47
363 Cavitt Ct	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,995 (+10%)	1mo	$399,999	$201	45
121 E Santa Anna Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,637 (-10%)	11mo	$180,000	$110	41
382 Rio Bonito Dr	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,941 (+7%)	18mo	$369,900	$191	37
112 E Dawn Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,025 (+12%)	6mo	$222,000	$110	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,891
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $15,200
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76706

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 317
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,564 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,747/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,185

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $370	-5% $335	+0% $299	+5% $264	+10% $229
Rent	-10% $176	-5% $238	+0% $299	+5% $361	+10% $423
Rate	-1.0pp $362	-0.5pp $331	base $299	+0.5pp $267	+1.0pp $234

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   Calling all investors! Rare opportunity to own a fixer-upper on acreage featuring a workshop and large tank. This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an upstairs flex room with endless potential for additional living space, office, or bonus room. Property is being sold as-is and is ideal for renovation, rental, or resale. Hard-to-find land with improvements—bring your vision and make it yours.

2. 2026-04-30
   price $125,000 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   Calling all investors! Rare opportunity to own a fixer-upper on acreage featuring a workshop and large tank. This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an upstairs flex room with endless potential for additional living space, office, or bonus room. Property is being sold as-is and is ideal for renovation, rental, or resale. Hard-to-find land with improvements—bring your vision and make it yours.

3. 2026-04-30
   status Active 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   Calling all investors! Rare opportunity to own a fixer-upper on acreage featuring a workshop and large tank. This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an upstairs flex room with endless potential for additional living space, office, or bonus room. Property is being sold as-is and is ideal for renovation, rental, or resale. Hard-to-find land with improvements—bring your vision and make it yours.

4. 2026-04-20
   historical Active Option Contract 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   Calling all investors! Rare opportunity to own a fixer-upper on acreage featuring a workshop and large tank. This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an upstairs flex room with endless potential for additional living space, office, or bonus room. Property is being sold as-is and is ideal for renovation, rental, or resale. Hard-to-find land with improvements—bring your vision and make it yours.

5. 2026-04-07
   status Active 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   Calling all investors! Rare opportunity to own a fixer-upper on acreage featuring a workshop and large tank. This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an upstairs flex room with endless potential for additional living space, office, or bonus room. Property is being sold as-is and is ideal for renovation, rental, or resale. Hard-to-find land with improvements—bring your vision and make it yours.

6. 2026-03-26
   historical Active Option Contract 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   Calling all investors! Rare opportunity to own a fixer-upper on acreage featuring a workshop and large tank. This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an upstairs flex room with endless potential for additional living space, office, or bonus room. Property is being sold as-is and is ideal for renovation, rental, or resale. Hard-to-find land with improvements—bring your vision and make it yours.

7. 2026-03-05
   price $155,000 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   Calling all investors! Rare opportunity to own a fixer-upper on acreage featuring a workshop and large tank. This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an upstairs flex room with endless potential for additional living space, office, or bonus room. Property is being sold as-is and is ideal for renovation, rental, or resale. Hard-to-find land with improvements—bring your vision and make it yours.

8. 2026-02-27
   status Active 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   Calling all investors! Rare opportunity to own a fixer-upper on acreage featuring a workshop and large tank. This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an upstairs flex room with endless potential for additional living space, office, or bonus room. Property is being sold as-is and is ideal for renovation, rental, or resale. Hard-to-find land with improvements—bring your vision and make it yours.

9. 2026-02-23
   historical Active Option Contract 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   Calling all investors! Rare opportunity to own a fixer-upper on acreage featuring a workshop and large tank. This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an upstairs flex room with endless potential for additional living space, office, or bonus room. Property is being sold as-is and is ideal for renovation, rental, or resale. Hard-to-find land with improvements—bring your vision and make it yours.

10. 2026-02-09
    listed $175,000 Active 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Calling all investors! Rare opportunity to own a fixer-upper on acreage featuring a workshop and large tank. This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an upstairs flex room with endless potential for additional living space, office, or bonus room. Property is being sold as-is and is ideal for renovation, rental, or resale. Hard-to-find land with improvements—bring your vision and make it yours.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,747 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,747 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,747
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,502
• − Management: −$1,502
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,760
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$422
• After-tax cash flow: $3,171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,208
• Composite: 17.57/100
• National rank: #9043
• State rank: #773 of 826 in TX

Livability — Robinson

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #7658

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Robinson, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 40,668
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,627
• Household income: $41,656
• Rent vs Own: 61.0% rent · 39.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3883.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 15% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.31%
• Current HPI: 230.2557
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.86%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-28.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-20 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-26 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $155,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-27 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-02-23 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $175,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,747 · +12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.