421 Duval St · Live Oak, FL 32064

$155,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,359 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 197 Days on market

Built 1900 9,148 sqft lot $114/sqft · 19% below area Est $190k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 1900-built historic home offers a wonderful blend of character, space, and potential. Situated on a corner lot in downtown Live Oak, the location provides easy access to shopping, schools, and community amenities. The home features three spacious bedrooms, one bathroom, new flooring, and a metal roof, giving you a solid start on important updates. With a little bit of TLC this home could return to it's full charm and beautiful curb appeal.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Downtown live oak
• Community amenities

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• DOWNTOWN LIVE OAK
• NEW FLOORING
• METAL ROOF
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.7% in Live Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#448 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Suwannee (town): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #52 of 73 in FL (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Suwannee Middle School (math 43% / reading 38%, grade F, #360 of 571 statewide, top 64%, 989 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 138 units permitted in Suwannee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $155k implies a 761% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.79%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,451
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -18.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
624 SW 7th St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-7%)	15mo	$220,000	$175	58
627 5th St SW	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,208 (-11%)	13mo	$193,000	$160	57
611 NW Nobles Ferry Rd	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,516 (+12%)	9mo	$140,000	$92	44
205 SE Seminole St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,294 (-5%)	16mo	$208,000	$161	41
845 8th St St SW	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,184 (-13%)	20mo	$95,000	$80	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,884
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $21,752
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32064

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,671 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,494/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $406	-5% $362	+0% $318	+5% $274	+10% $230
Rent	-10% $186	-5% $252	+0% $318	+5% $384	+10% $450
Rate	-1.0pp $396	-0.5pp $357	base $318	+0.5pp $278	+1.0pp $237

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
403 Helvenston St SE Live Oak, FL	2.0	1.0	945	$1,400	$1.48	23d	1	0.75mi
1203 Pine Ave SW Live Oak, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	23d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $155,000 Active 197 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $155,000 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-04-03
   price $155,000 448-char remark

   Show marketing remark (448 chars)

   This 1900-built historic home offers a wonderful blend of character, space, and potential. Situated on a corner lot in downtown Live Oak, the location provides easy access to shopping, schools, and community amenities. The home features three spacious bedrooms, one bathroom, new flooring, and a metal roof, giving you a solid start on important updates. With a little bit of TLC this home could return to it's full charm and beautiful curb appeal.

4. 2025-11-15
   listed $165,000 Active 448-char remark

   Show marketing remark (448 chars)

   This 1900-built historic home offers a wonderful blend of character, space, and potential. Situated on a corner lot in downtown Live Oak, the location provides easy access to shopping, schools, and community amenities. The home features three spacious bedrooms, one bathroom, new flooring, and a metal roof, giving you a solid start on important updates. With a little bit of TLC this home could return to it's full charm and beautiful curb appeal.

5. 1992-12-01
   soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,494 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,494 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,048
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,494
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,604
• − Management: −$1,604
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $1,380
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$331
• After-tax cash flow: $3,484/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Suwannee
• NCES district ID: 1201830
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $37,785
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4503
• State rank: #52 of 73 in FL

Livability — Live Oak

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #448
• US rank: #8100

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Live Oak, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,661

Population outlook (Suwannee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,226 people
• By 2030: 45,833 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 46,631 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 46,544 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 43,635 · -3.5%
• By 2100: 34,318 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 28% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Italian 0%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suwannee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.3% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.8pp toward R · 2008: -43.1pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.3 2012: R+45.0 2008: R+43.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.91%
• Current HPI: 163.2985
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+761.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $155,000 NFMLS
• 2025-11-15 Listed $165,000 NFMLS
• 1992-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,494 · +84.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.