130 Deer Run Dr · Milton, NY 12020

$320,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,480 sqft · Townhouse public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1988 0.28 ac lot Est $302k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ENT UNIT-SUPERIOR LOT W/PARTIAL PRIVACY FENCE AND CHAIN LINK FENCE. GAS HEAT W/CENTRAL AIR. OPEN TWO STORY ENTRY-WAY, NEUTRAL DECOR THRU-OUT.ORIGINAL OWNER,MOVE IN CONDITION-SELLER APPLIED FOR STAR PROGRAM. Excellent Condition

Key facts

• Hot water tank
• Newer furnace
• Four year old roof

Tags

• LARGE BACK YARD
• FOUR YEAR OLD ROOF
• NEWER FURNACE
• CENTRAL AIR
• HOT WATER TANK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with 1 parking space and garage door opener; Total of 3 parking spaces; Off-street paved parking and driveway
• Utilities: 150 amp electric service; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Townhouse; Entry level includes first and second floors
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard with fencing; Fenced yard; Paved driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (second floor); One half bathroom (first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Family room on first floor; Total of 5 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $226 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.4% in Milton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#652 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Ballston Spa Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #289 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ballston Spa Senior High School (math 92% / reading 64%, grade A-, #568 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 1,249 students, 32% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 78% at this address vs 54% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Ballston Spa Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.3%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $90k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $172k; list at $320k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $286,903 (10.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.03%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $301,920
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
214 Whitetail Ct	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,480 (0%)	0mo	$330,000	$223	96
310 Caribou Ct	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,480 (0%)	6mo	$302,000	$204	92
110 Deer Run Dr	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,480 (0%)	11mo	$305,000	$206	88
89 Deer Run Dr	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,480 (0%)	9mo	$275,000	$186	88
412 Antler Ct	0.09mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,480 (0%)	2mo	$330,000	$223	85
44 Deer Run Dr	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,480 (0%)	7mo	$308,000	$208	81
32 Deer Run Dr	0.17mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,480 (0%)	10mo	$325,000	$220	75
536 Elk Cir	0.16mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,480 (0%)	18mo	$285,000	$193	68
102 Deer Run Dr	0.08mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,480 (0%)	23mo	$276,000	$186	68
408 Antler Ct	0.11mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,480 (0%)	23mo	$270,000	$182	67
515 Elk Cir	0.20mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,480 (0%)	18mo	$240,000	$162	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-22,338
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $67,868
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12020

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.3%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,869 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,745/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$602
• Net cashflow: $226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,583

Max offer price $320,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
91 Hutchins Rd Ballston Spa, NY	2.0	2.0	1316	$3,050	$2.32	13d	7	0.75mi
100 Madison Dr Ballston Spa, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1145	$3,266	$2.85	13d	41	1.01mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $320,000 Active
3. 2007-03-28
   soldstatus $171,650
4. 1999-07-08
   soldstatus $68,000
5. 1999-06-22
   soldstatus $68,000 226-char remark

   Show marketing remark (226 chars)

   ENT UNIT-SUPERIOR LOT W/PARTIAL PRIVACY FENCE AND CHAIN LINK FENCE. GAS HEAT W/CENTRAL AIR. OPEN TWO STORY ENTRY-WAY, NEUTRAL DECOR THRU-OUT.ORIGINAL OWNER,MOVE IN CONDITION-SELLER APPLIED FOR STAR PROGRAM. Excellent Condition

6. 1999-04-21
   historical 226-char remark

   Show marketing remark (226 chars)

   ENT UNIT-SUPERIOR LOT W/PARTIAL PRIVACY FENCE AND CHAIN LINK FENCE. GAS HEAT W/CENTRAL AIR. OPEN TWO STORY ENTRY-WAY, NEUTRAL DECOR THRU-OUT.ORIGINAL OWNER,MOVE IN CONDITION-SELLER APPLIED FOR STAR PROGRAM. Excellent Condition

7. 1999-03-31
   listed $72,000 226-char remark

   Show marketing remark (226 chars)

   ENT UNIT-SUPERIOR LOT W/PARTIAL PRIVACY FENCE AND CHAIN LINK FENCE. GAS HEAT W/CENTRAL AIR. OPEN TWO STORY ENTRY-WAY, NEUTRAL DECOR THRU-OUT.ORIGINAL OWNER,MOVE IN CONDITION-SELLER APPLIED FOR STAR PROGRAM. Excellent Condition

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,076 · $340/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,331/yr (+$111/mo · 48.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$2,745
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,754
• − Management: −$2,754
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$2,659
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$638
• After-tax cash flow: $3,354/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ballston Spa Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603930
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,705
• Composite: 48.12/100
• National rank: #2184
• State rank: #289 of 590 in NY

Livability — Milton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #652
• US rank: #11825

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,937
• Household income: $107,112
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 607.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.23%
• Current HPI: 346.5996
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.26%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+344.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $320,000 Global MLS
• 2007-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $171,650 Public Records
• 1999-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-22 Sold (MLS) $68,000 Global MLS
• 1999-04-21 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 1999-03-31 Listed $72,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,745 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.