12406 Green Gulf Blvd · Punta Gorda, FL 33955

$289,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,429 sqft · Land public records · 98 Days on market

Built 2024 9,620 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prepare to be impressed by this DELIGHTFUL NEW home in the Tropical Gulf Acres community! The desirable Alton plan boasts a well-appointed kitchen with a walk-in pantry overlooking an open-concept dining area and living room. The kitchen features gorgeous cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances (Including: range, microwave hood, and dishwasher). All bedrooms, including the laundry room, are on the main floor. The private owner’s suite features an attached bath and walk-in closet. This desirable plan also comes complete with a 2-car garage.

Key facts

• Modern construction
• Indoor laundry area
• Centrally located

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• FURNISHED
• CORNER LOT
• INDOOR LAUNDRY AREA
• MODERN CONSTRUCTION
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-753/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.8% in Punta Gorda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#225 in FL, #3,567 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 1481 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,158 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.93%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-50,825
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-49,391
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33955

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 1481
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,382 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$308 /mo · $3,699/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,461

Max offer price $277,912

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $101	-5% $19	+0% $-63	+5% $-145	+10% $-226
Rent	-10% $-251	-5% $-157	+0% $-63	+5% $31	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $11	base $-63	+0.5pp $-138	+1.0pp $-214

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13239 Turnleaf Blvd Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,300	$1.23	14d	1	0.63mi
12378 Paramount Dr Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	3.0	1836	$2,295	$1.25	22d	1	0.88mi
13263 Valrico Ter Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,500	$0.92	22d	1	1.29mi
11812 Cloverly Ln Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	2.5	1875	$2,150	$1.15	22d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-09
   price $289,000
3. 2026-02-05
   price $299,000
4. 2026-01-09
   listed $319,000 Active
5. 2024-09-29
   soldstatus $287,888 Closed 573-char remark

   Show marketing remark (573 chars)

   Prepare to be impressed by this DELIGHTFUL NEW home in the Tropical Gulf Acres community! The desirable Alton plan boasts a well-appointed kitchen with a walk-in pantry overlooking an open-concept dining area and living room. The kitchen features gorgeous cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances (Including: range, microwave hood, and dishwasher). All bedrooms, including the laundry room, are on the main floor. The private owner’s suite features an attached bath and walk-in closet. This desirable plan also comes complete with a 2-car garage.

6. 2024-08-30
   status Pending 573-char remark

   Show marketing remark (573 chars)

   Prepare to be impressed by this DELIGHTFUL NEW home in the Tropical Gulf Acres community! The desirable Alton plan boasts a well-appointed kitchen with a walk-in pantry overlooking an open-concept dining area and living room. The kitchen features gorgeous cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances (Including: range, microwave hood, and dishwasher). All bedrooms, including the laundry room, are on the main floor. The private owner’s suite features an attached bath and walk-in closet. This desirable plan also comes complete with a 2-car garage.

7. 2024-08-29
   soldstatus $287,888 Closed 573-char remark

   Show marketing remark (573 chars)

   Prepare to be impressed by this DELIGHTFUL NEW home in the Tropical Gulf Acres community! The desirable Alton plan boasts a well-appointed kitchen with a walk-in pantry overlooking an open-concept dining area and living room. The kitchen features gorgeous cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances (Including: range, microwave hood, and dishwasher). All bedrooms, including the laundry room, are on the main floor. The private owner’s suite features an attached bath and walk-in closet. This desirable plan also comes complete with a 2-car garage.

8. 2024-08-07
   status Pending 573-char remark

   Show marketing remark (573 chars)

   Prepare to be impressed by this DELIGHTFUL NEW home in the Tropical Gulf Acres community! The desirable Alton plan boasts a well-appointed kitchen with a walk-in pantry overlooking an open-concept dining area and living room. The kitchen features gorgeous cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances (Including: range, microwave hood, and dishwasher). All bedrooms, including the laundry room, are on the main floor. The private owner’s suite features an attached bath and walk-in closet. This desirable plan also comes complete with a 2-car garage.

9. 2024-07-25
   price $287,888 573-char remark

   Show marketing remark (573 chars)

   Prepare to be impressed by this DELIGHTFUL NEW home in the Tropical Gulf Acres community! The desirable Alton plan boasts a well-appointed kitchen with a walk-in pantry overlooking an open-concept dining area and living room. The kitchen features gorgeous cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances (Including: range, microwave hood, and dishwasher). All bedrooms, including the laundry room, are on the main floor. The private owner’s suite features an attached bath and walk-in closet. This desirable plan also comes complete with a 2-car garage.

10. 2024-07-19
    price $297,888 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    Prepare to be impressed by this DELIGHTFUL NEW home in the Tropical Gulf Acres community! The desirable Alton plan boasts a well-appointed kitchen with a walk-in pantry overlooking an open-concept dining area and living room. The kitchen features gorgeous cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances (Including: range, microwave hood, and dishwasher). All bedrooms, including the laundry room, are on the main floor. The private owner’s suite features an attached bath and walk-in closet. This desirable plan also comes complete with a 2-car garage.

11. 2024-04-25
    listed $297,990 Active 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    Prepare to be impressed by this DELIGHTFUL NEW home in the Tropical Gulf Acres community! The desirable Alton plan boasts a well-appointed kitchen with a walk-in pantry overlooking an open-concept dining area and living room. The kitchen features gorgeous cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances (Including: range, microwave hood, and dishwasher). All bedrooms, including the laundry room, are on the main floor. The private owner’s suite features an attached bath and walk-in closet. This desirable plan also comes complete with a 2-car garage.

12. 2022-02-11
    soldstatus $48,400
13. 2022-02-10
    soldstatus $14,500 Closed
14. 2021-12-27
    status Pending
15. 2021-12-07
    soldstatus $10,000
16. 2021-11-23
    listed $14,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,699 · $308/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,699 · $308/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,579
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$3,699
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,286
• − Management: −$2,286
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$5,733
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,376
• After-tax cash flow: $623/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charlotte
• NCES district ID: 1200240
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,864
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2586
• State rank: #22 of 73 in FL

Livability — Punta Gorda

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #225
• US rank: #3567

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Charlotte County · 196,994 people
• City population: 68,831
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,399
• Household income: $76,943
• Rent vs Own: 9.5% rent · 90.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 226.0

Population outlook (Charlotte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,646 people
• By 2030: 210,507 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 230,857 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 247,148 · +24.4%
• By 2075: 281,777 · +41.8%
• By 2100: 293,609 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charlotte

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.7% · R 66.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.7pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+26.6 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+14.3 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.71%
• Current HPI: 242.9043
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1893.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $289,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Listed $319,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-29 Sold (MLS) $287,888 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-29 Sold (MLS) $287,888 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-25 Price Changed $287,888 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-19 Price Changed $297,888 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-25 Listed $297,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $48,400 Public Records
• 2022-02-10 Sold (MLS) $14,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-23 Listed $14,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+25.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,699 · +924.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.