2411 River Rd #2650 · Wisconsin Dells, WI 53965

$185,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,784 sqft · Condo · 121 Days on market

Built 2007 Good condition $104/sqft · 23% below area Est $241k · 23% under $827/mo HOA · 47% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.8/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This condo is located on the sixth floor overlooking Chula Vista Resort. Condo features 2 fireplaces, 9' ceilings granite counter tops, stainless steel appliances, and a whirlpool tub! Chula Vista has so much to offer! 80,000 square feet of indoor water park, acres of outdoor water fun, 26 waterslides, many restaurants including the Award Winning Kaminski Chop House, Spa Del Sol, gift shops and an 18 hole Golf Course. A must see, this one has it all! Optional overnight rental.

Key facts

• Waterslides
• Sixth floor
• Outdoor water fun

Tags

• SIXTH FLOOR
• INDOOR WATER PARK
• OUTDOOR WATER FUN
• WATERSLIDES
• RESTAURANTS
• SPA DEL SOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-702 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $83k (54.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $83k (54.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#100 in WI, #2,661 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, commute F.
• Wisconsin Dells School District (town): math 44% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #135 of 342 in WI (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Hill Elementary (math 52% / reading 37%, grade F, #372 of 1,041 statewide, top 40%, 608 students, 57% FRL); Wisconsin Dells Middle School (math 42% / reading 44%, grade D-, #112 of 383 statewide, top 30%, 387 students, 54% FRL); Wisconsin Dells High (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #349 of 483 statewide, top 75%, 603 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 126 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 47% of rent.

Recommended offer $83,460 (54.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.26%
• DSCR: 0.28
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,175
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -20.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2411 River Rd #2243	0.00mi	3/3.0	1,784 (0%)	4mo	$190,000	$107	97
2411 River Rd #2459	0.00mi	3/3.0	1,784 (0%)	10mo	$192,500	$108	92
2411 River Rd #2559	0.00mi	3/3.0	1,784 (0%)	11mo	$195,000	$109	91
2411 River Rd #2232	0.00mi	3/3.0	2,040 (+14%)	10mo	$203,000	$100	68
2411 River Rd #2226	0.00mi	3/3.0	2,040 (+14%)	11mo	$204,000	$100	67
2411 River Rd #2210	0.00mi	3/3.0	2,040 (+14%)	11mo	$185,000	$91	67
2411 River Rd #2519	0.00mi	3/3.0	2,040 (+14%)	13mo	$220,000	$108	65
2411 River Rd #2515	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-16%)	4mo	$168,000	$112	62
2411 River Rd #2136	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-16%)	5mo	$130,000	$87	62
2411 River Rd #2318	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-16%)	10mo	$158,500	$106	58
2411 River Rd #2628	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-16%)	12mo	$147,000	$98	56
2411 River Rd #2233	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-16%)	13mo	$170,000	$113	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -47.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-74,136
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -86.0%
• Equity multiple: -1.32×
• Total profit: $-119,932
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $224,900 ($126/sqft)
• Median days on market: 375 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +7.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 53965

• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,777 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$827
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-702

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,665

Max offer price $83,460

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-574	-5% $-638	+0% $-702	+5% $-766	+10% $-830
Rent	-10% $-842	-5% $-772	+0% $-702	+5% $-632	+10% $-561
Rate	-1.0pp $-609	-0.5pp $-655	base $-702	+0.5pp $-750	+1.0pp $-798

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of a 184-unit condominium association (Chula Vista Condominium)
• Financial info: Pets permitted
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $827Rental allowedCommon green spaceBuilding laundry facilitiesElevatorOutdoor pool

Exterior

• Parking: Outdoor parking
• Utilities: Municipal waterMunicipal sewer
• Home design: Condo (garden unit)One story (garden-level unit)
• Construction: Built by builder
• Exterior features: DeckBrick, stucco, and stone exteriorOutdoor space

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/ovenRefrigeratorDishwasherMicrowaveBreakfast barPantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level (13 x 16)Bedroom 2 on main level (14 x 16)Bedroom 3 on main level (13 x 16)
• Bathrooms: Three full bathroomsMaster bathroom with whirlpool and walk-in shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral airElectric heat fuel
• Interior features: Great roomCable/satellite availableHigh-speed internet
• Laundry & utility: Laundry facilities in the building

HOA detail $827/mo · $9,924/yr condo

• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   pricedays on market $185,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $192,000 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $192,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $192,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $192,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $192,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $192,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $192,000 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $192,000 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $192,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $192,000 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $192,000 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $192,000 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $192,000 Active 100 DOM
16. 2026-07-17
    days on market $192,000 Active 98 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $192,000 Active 97 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $192,000 Active 96 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $192,000 Active 95 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $192,000 Active 94 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $192,000 Active 93 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $192,000 Active 92 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $192,000 Active 91 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $192,000 Active 90 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $192,000 Active 89 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $192,000 Active 88 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $192,000 Active 87 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $192,000 Active 86 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $192,000 Active 85 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $192,000 Active 84 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $192,000 Active 83 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $192,000 Active 82 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $192,000 Active 81 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $192,000 Active 80 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $192,000 Active 79 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $192,000 Active 77 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $192,000 Active 74 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $192,000 Active 73 DOM
39. 2026-06-19
    days on market $192,000 Active 71 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $192,000 Active 70 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $192,000 Active 69 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $192,000 Active 68 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $192,000 Active 67 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $192,000 Active 65 DOM
45. 2026-06-12
    days on market $192,000 Active 64 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $192,000 Active 61 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $192,000 Active 60 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $192,000 Active 59 DOM
49. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $192,000 Active 56 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $194,000 Active 55 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,323
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,706
• − Management: −$1,706
• − HOA: −$9,924
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$11,457
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,750
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,920–$26,760 screening

This well-maintained condo features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and modern cabinetry. It is located on the sixth floor of Chula Vista Resort, offering access to various amenities. The property is in good condition and ready for a fresh coat of paint and some minor updates to the kitchen and flooring to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the overall appearance and appeal of the property. ↑
• Both Replace the kitchen faucet — A new faucet can improve functionality and aesthetics. ↑
• Both Upgrade the flooring in the living areas — New flooring can significantly enhance the look and feel of the property, making it more appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Spring Hill Elementary F WI #372/1,041 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Wisconsin Dells Middle School D- WI #112/383 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Wisconsin Dells High F WI #349/483 Nat'l #13,673/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wisconsin Dells School District
• NCES district ID: 5517040
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,233
• Composite: 35.91/100
• National rank: #4810
• State rank: #135 of 342 in WI

B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Wisconsin Dells

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #2661

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wisconsin Dells, WI
• County: Adams County · 18,560 people
• City population: 10,818
• Metro: Madison, WI
• Population (ZIP): 10,818
• Household income: $66,667
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,560 people
• By 2030: 17,523 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 14,888 · -19.8%
• By 2050: 12,359 · -33.4%
• By 2075: 8,662 · -53.3%
• By 2100: 6,000 · -67.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.8) · D 34.6% · R 60.4% · Other 5.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.2pp toward R · 2008: 18.3pp · 2024: -25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.8 2020: R+25.7 2016: R+21.8 2012: D+8.7 2008: D+18.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.85%
• Current HPI: 234.2781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Madison, WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of a 184-unit condominium association (Chula Vista Condominium)
• Financial info: Pets permitted
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $827Rental allowedCommon green spaceBuilding laundry facilitiesElevatorOutdoor pool

Exterior

• Parking: Outdoor parking
• Utilities: Municipal waterMunicipal sewer
• Home design: Condo (garden unit)One story (garden-level unit)
• Construction: Built by builder
• Exterior features: DeckBrick, stucco, and stone exteriorOutdoor space

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/ovenRefrigeratorDishwasherMicrowaveBreakfast barPantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level (13 x 16)Bedroom 2 on main level (14 x 16)Bedroom 3 on main level (13 x 16)
• Bathrooms: Three full bathroomsMaster bathroom with whirlpool and walk-in shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral airElectric heat fuel
• Interior features: Great roomCable/satellite availableHigh-speed internet
• Laundry & utility: Laundry facilities in the building

Price history

-13.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $192,000 SCWMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — SCWMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $194,000 SCWMLS
• 2026-03-23 Relisted — SCWMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $194,000 SCWMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listing Removed — SCWMLS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $204,000 SCWMLS
• 2025-08-04 Relisted — SCWMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listing Removed — SCWMLS
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $205,000 SCWMLS
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $210,000 SCWMLS
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $214,500 SCWMLS
• 2025-02-11 Price Changed $215,500 SCWMLS
• 2024-11-14 Price Changed $216,500 SCWMLS
• 2024-07-15 Price Changed $217,500 SCWMLS
• 2024-05-21 Listed $223,000 SCWMLS