40 Canoe Place Rd #5 · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$480,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 4,850 sqft · Condo · 110 Days on market

Built 1995 $500/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Year-round co-op close to beaches, restaurants and access points. Second floor, with one bedroom and one bath. HOA fees, approximately $500 monthly, include maintenance, heat, water, trash and property taxes. Subject to board approval.

Key facts

• $500 HOA
• Built 1995
• Listed 110 days

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $480,000 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $480k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $480k).
• Recommended offer: $437k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,813/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $134k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($437k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $436,800 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.98%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $58,334
• Equity at exit: $71,570

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $344,720
• Equity at exit: $41,502

Cash invested: $134,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,813 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,517
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$600 /mo · $7,200/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$500
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,431
• Net cashflow: $1,565

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,832

Max offer price $480,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,897	-5% $1,731	+0% $1,565	+5% $1,399	+10% $1,234
Rent	-10% $1,027	-5% $1,296	+0% $1,565	+5% $1,834	+10% $2,104
Rate	-1.0pp $1,807	-0.5pp $1,687	base $1,565	+0.5pp $1,441	+1.0pp $1,314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $120,000
• Closing costs: $14,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $500 · $6,000/yr
• Likely covers: watertrash
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $480,000 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $480,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $480,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $480,000 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $480,000 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $480,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $480,000 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $480,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $480,000 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $480,000 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $480,000 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $480,000 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $480,000 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $480,000 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $480,000 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-03-02
    listed $480,000 Active 235-char remark

    Show marketing remark (235 chars)

    Year-round co-op close to beaches, restaurants and access points. Second floor, with one bedroom and one bath. HOA fees, approximately $500 monthly, include maintenance, heat, water, trash and property taxes. Subject to board approval.

17. 2025-08-21
    historical
18. 2025-02-20
    listed $480,000 Active
19. 2021-05-13
    historical
20. 2020-10-16
    price $348,150
21. 2020-09-19
    listed $330,000 Active
22. 2020-05-19
    historical
23. 2020-05-06
    price $342,000
24. 2019-09-22
    price $327,000
25. 2019-08-23
    listed $307,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $81,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,887
• − Property taxes: −$7,200
• − Insurance: −$2,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,541
• − Management: −$6,541
• − HOA: −$6,000
• − Depreciation: −$13,964
• Taxable income: $12,227
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,934
• After-tax cash flow: $15,850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+56.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $480,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-21 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-20 Listed $480,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-13 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-16 Price Changed $348,150 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-19 Listed $330,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-19 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-06 Price Changed $342,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-22 Price Changed $327,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-23 Listed $307,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid