4311 Dragonwick Dr · Houston, TX 77045

$209,950

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,911 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1964 6,891 sqft lot Est $352k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Are you looking for a large home that you can personalize to your family? Look no further. This is one of the largest homes in the neighborhood. It offers a comfortable and flexible layout with great space throughout. The spacious living room sets a welcoming tone, while the kitchen shines with bar seating and flows into the dining space. A large rec room adds a wonderful bonus living area. The primary bedroom offers an ensuite bath and a walk-in closet. There are three additional bedrooms that are waiting for your personal touch. Outside, the fully fenced yard is ready to enjoy.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Shared bonus room
• Large rec room

Tags

• LARGE REC ROOM
• ENSUITE BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• SHARED BONUS ROOM
• PLAYROOM STUDY CREATIVE SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Built in 1964; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Backs to greenbelt/park; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 18); Second bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 14)
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Tub with shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $61 ($736/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hobby El (math 7% / reading 15%, grade F, #4,237 of 4,322 statewide, top 98%, 504 students, 89% FRL); Lawson Middle (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,274 students, 96% FRL); Madison H S (math 9% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,537 of 1,632 statewide, top 94%, 1,924 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 71% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,301/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 803% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.61%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $352,231
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12818 Regg Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,480 (-15%)	2mo	$299,500	$121	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-36,634
• Equity at exit: $31,304

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-52,027
• Equity at exit: $18,153

Cash invested: $58,786 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77045

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,301 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$502 /mo · $6,020/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,224

Max offer price $209,950

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $180	-5% $121	+0% $61	+5% $2	+10% $-57
Rent	-10% $-120	-5% $-30	+0% $61	+5% $152	+10% $243
Rate	-1.0pp $167	-0.5pp $115	base $61	+0.5pp $7	+1.0pp $-48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,488
• Closing costs: $6,298
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13023 Cherton Ct Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2751	$2,375	$0.86	23d	1	0.18mi
4023 Glenn Ricki Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2605	$1,860	$0.71	22d	1	0.34mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,950 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,950 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,950 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,950 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,950 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,950 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,950 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,950 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 586-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $209,950 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,020 · $502/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,020 · $502/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,615
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,760
• − Property taxes: −$6,020
• − Insurance: −$1,847
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,209
• − Management: −$2,209
• − Depreciation: −$6,108
• Taxable loss: −$2,539
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$609
• After-tax cash flow: $1,346/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,563
• Household income: $59,688
• Rent vs Own: 38.9% rent · 61.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% Black 37% Two or more races 25% White 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Ukrainian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 49% Arabic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.49%
• Current HPI: 282.5426
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $209,950 HARMLS
• 2000-05-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,020 · +15.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.