443 E 143rd St · New York, NY 10454

$599,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,850 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1898 Est $898k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Location, location, location! This is a gut renovation or rebuild located in R6 zoning allowing a multi-family in the new revitalized area of Piano City! Presently it is a single family. Cash Only or Construction Loans. Private, level backyard. Close to restaurants, schools, parks, shops, public transportation, etc. Bike ride or walk over the Willis Ave. bridge to Manhattan. Bring your creativity and make this your own. Loads of potential! Due to safety considerations, we request that adults only visit the property.

Key facts

• Gut renovation
• Close to restaurants
• Close to schools

Tags

• GUT RENOVATION
• R6 ZONING
• MULTI-FAMILY
• PRIVATE LEVEL BACKYARD
• CLOSE TO RESTAURANTS
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $572 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $537k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $537k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 19 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,367/mo this rent would consume 267% of the median local household income ($24k/yr) (locally 5002% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.7% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($591k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $181k; list at $600k implies a 231% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1898 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $536,727 (10.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1898 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.56%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $897,750
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
646 Saint Anns Ave	0.52mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,748 (-4%)	8mo	$865,000	$315	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.67% appreciation · 0.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $150,475
• Equity at exit: $327,884

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $406,545
• Equity at exit: $556,102

Cash invested: $168,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10454

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,367 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,468/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,127
• Net cashflow: $572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,644

Max offer price $599,999

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $911	-5% $741	+0% $572	+5% $402	+10% $232
Rent	-10% $148	-5% $360	+0% $572	+5% $784	+10% $996
Rate	-1.0pp $874	-0.5pp $724	base $572	+0.5pp $416	+1.0pp $258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,000
• Closing costs: $18,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 W 131st St Apt 2 New York, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$6,750	$3.38	25d	1	1.30mi
114 W 131st St Apt 2 New York, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$6,150	$3.08	18d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2025-04-01
   listed $599,999 Active
3. 2004-03-11
   soldstatus $181,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,468 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,304 · $525/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,836/yr (+$320/mo · 155.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $64,407
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,609
• − Property taxes: −$2,468
• − Insurance: −$3,797
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,153
• − Management: −$5,153
• − Depreciation: −$17,455
• Taxable loss: −$3,227
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$775
• After-tax cash flow: $7,633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 39,570
• Household income: $24,086
• Rent vs Own: 93.2% rent · 6.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 5002.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Black 23% Two or more races 14% White 3% Native American 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 29% Dominican 17%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 58% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.67%
• Current HPI: 238.974
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.61%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+231.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-29 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-01 Listed $599,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $181,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,468 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.