1942 Trigg Rd #54 · Ferndale, WA 98248

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1980 $64/sqft · 23% below area Est $65k · 23% under ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Clean, simple, and easy to love. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home has been refreshed with new paint and flooring and features a cozy, efficient layout with an open living, dining, and kitchen space that feels comfortable and functional. Across from a green space, you'll enjoy a nice view from the living room windows. Located in a quiet, all-ages park in a great Ferndale location with easy access to I-5, this home offers convenience without the fuss. Space rent of $950 includes water, sewer, and garbage, and two dedicated parking spaces add to the everyday ease. Just minutes from local Ferndale amenities, this is a great opportunity for affordable, low-maintenance living.

Key facts

• New flooring
• New paint
• Green space view

Tags

• NEW PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• GREEN SPACE VIEW
• EASY ACCESS TO I-5
• TWO DEDICATED PARKING SPACES
• MINUTES FROM LOCAL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Manufactured after 6/15/1976
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash
• HOA & community: Located in a land-lease mobile home park (land lease $950)

Exterior

• Parking: Uncovered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Electric power; Electric water heater; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home (Hillcrest model); One level; Tie-down foundation; Torch down roof; Metal skirting; Electric energy source; Located in Ferndale Mobile Home Court
• Construction: Metal/vinyl construction
• Exterior features: Metal/vinyl exterior; Storage shed on site

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Water heater (electric, located in closet)
• Laundry & utility: Water heater in closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 39.1% vs local median 2.5% in Ferndale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#79 in WA, #1,471 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living D-.
• Ferndale School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #138 of 291 in WA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 230 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $48,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 117.22%
• DSCR: 6.22
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $64,586
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -22.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1870 Trigg Rd #3	0.19mi	2/1.0	784 (0%)	12mo	$42,000	$54	81
1942 Trigg Rd #38	0.00mi	3/1.5 (+1)	732 (-7%)	2mo	$87,000	$119	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.92×
• Total profit: $82,884
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.35×
• Total profit: $200,869
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98248

• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 230
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $256/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $1,368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $385

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2119 Aldergrove Rd Unit E Ferndale, WA	2.0	1.0	864	$2,000	$2.31	13d	1	0.45mi
2274 Thornton St Ferndale, WA	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	13d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $50,000 Pending 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $50,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $50,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $50,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $50,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-04-28
   listed $70,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $256 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $490 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: +$234/yr (+$20/mo · 91.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,396
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$256
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,032
• − Management: −$2,032
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $16,572
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,977
• After-tax cash flow: $12,433/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferndale School District
• NCES district ID: 5302850
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $59,413
• Composite: 46.06/100
• National rank: #5494
• State rank: #138 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ferndale

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #1471

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferndale, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• City population: 28,498
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 28,498
• Household income: $91,060
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 582.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Portuguese 4% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -427.43%
• Current HPI: 407.6077
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.79%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-28.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $50,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $65,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Listed $70,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+18.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $256 · +41.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.