1346 Route 169 · Southbridge Town, MA 06281

$265,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1910 0.90 ac lot Est $289k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT HOME WITH 3 BEDS, 1.5 BATHS!!! ATTACHED GARAGE ON WOODED LOT!! SPACIOUS WITH MANY UPDATES!! HUD Home. Sold “AS-IS” by elec. bid only. Prop available 11-14-17. ONLINE BIDDING PERIOD TO 23 NOV 2017 at 11:59 PM Central Time; then daily online bidding until sold. FHA Case #061-386491. FHA IN (Insurable). Eligible for FHA 203k. Financing terms: FHA, CASH, and CONVENTIONAL. LBP addendum attached.

Key facts

• Classic built-ins
• Full basement
• Rear deck

Tags

• WIDE-PLANK HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CLASSIC BUILT-INS
• REAR DECK
• FULL BASEMENT
• OFF-STREET PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.7% in Southbridge Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#235 in MA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Woodstock School District (rural): math 32% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #89 of 153 in CT (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Woodstock Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #256 of 553 statewide, top 48%, 427 students, 21% FRL); Woodstock Middle School (math 28% / reading 56%, grade D-, #103 of 175 statewide, top 59%, 346 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 149 units permitted in Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $265k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 38% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,413 (10.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.83%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $289,440
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
566 Route 197	0.54mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$290,000	$201	62
610 Route 197	0.55mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,368 (-5%)	18mo	$385,000	$281	46
1281 Route 169	0.30mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,243 (-14%)	17mo	$175,000	$141	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-35,722
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-21,829
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06281

• Home prices YoY: -14.7%
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,374 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,144/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,231

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $263	-5% $188	+0% $113	+5% $38	+10% $-37
Rent	-10% $-74	-5% $20	+0% $113	+5% $207	+10% $301
Rate	-1.0pp $247	-0.5pp $181	base $113	+0.5pp $45	+1.0pp $-25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-02-19
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-02-13
   listed $265,000 Active
3. 2024-07-29
   historical
4. 2024-07-12
   listed $305,000 Active
5. 2018-02-13
   soldstatus $120,000 411-char remark

   Show marketing remark (411 chars)

   GREAT HOME WITH 3 BEDS, 1.5 BATHS!!! ATTACHED GARAGE ON WOODED LOT!! SPACIOUS WITH MANY UPDATES!! HUD Home. Sold “AS-IS” by elec. bid only. Prop available 11-14-17. ONLINE BIDDING PERIOD TO 23 NOV 2017 at 11:59 PM Central Time; then daily online bidding until sold. FHA Case #061-386491. FHA IN (Insurable). Eligible for FHA 203k. Financing terms: FHA, CASH, and CONVENTIONAL. LBP addendum attached.

6. 2017-11-14
   listed $103,000 411-char remark

   Show marketing remark (411 chars)

   GREAT HOME WITH 3 BEDS, 1.5 BATHS!!! ATTACHED GARAGE ON WOODED LOT!! SPACIOUS WITH MANY UPDATES!! HUD Home. Sold “AS-IS” by elec. bid only. Prop available 11-14-17. ONLINE BIDDING PERIOD TO 23 NOV 2017 at 11:59 PM Central Time; then daily online bidding until sold. FHA Case #061-386491. FHA IN (Insurable). Eligible for FHA 203k. Financing terms: FHA, CASH, and CONVENTIONAL. LBP addendum attached.

7. 2017-10-10
   listed $120,450
8. 2017-10-10
   historical
9. 2010-07-27
   soldstatus $166,000
10. 2010-07-23
    soldstatus $166,000
11. 2009-10-01
    listed $172,000
12. 2009-07-24
    soldstatus $90,000
13. 2009-01-13
    listed $84,900
14. 2002-08-18
    historical
15. 2002-02-18
    listed $149,000
16. 2000-10-01
    soldstatus $57,000
17. 2000-07-27
    historical
18. 2000-02-28
    historical
19. 2000-02-28
    historical
20. 2000-02-08
    listed $80,000
21. 1999-09-14
    listed $85,000
22. 1999-09-09
    listed $85,000
23. 1989-12-01
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,144 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$58/yr (+$5/mo · 1.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 38% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,144
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,279
• − Management: −$2,279
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$3,091
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$742
• After-tax cash flow: $2,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Woodstock School District
• NCES district ID: 0905370
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $77,483
• Composite: 39.93/100
• National rank: #3846
• State rank: #89 of 153 in CT

Livability — Southbridge Town

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #235
• US rank: #22429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 17,806
• Population (ZIP): 7,417

Population outlook (Northeastern Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 104,160

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Romanian 6% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Northeastern Connecticut

• 2024 margin: R (+15.4) · D 41.5% · R 57.0% · Other 1.5%
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.31%
• Current HPI: 205.5225
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

+165.0% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $265,000 Smart MLS
• 2024-07-29 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2024-07-12 Listed $305,000 Smart MLS
• 2018-02-13 Sold (MLS) $120,000 Smart MLS
• 2017-11-14 Listed $103,000 Smart MLS
• 2017-10-10 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2017-10-10 Listed $120,450 Smart MLS
• 2010-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $166,000 Public Records
• 2010-07-23 Sold (MLS) $166,000 Smart MLS
• 2009-10-01 Listed $172,000 Smart MLS
• 2009-07-24 Sold (MLS) $90,000 Smart MLS
• 2009-01-13 Listed $84,900 Smart MLS
• 2002-08-18 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2002-02-18 Listed $149,000 Smart MLS
• 2000-10-01 Sold (MLS) $57,000 MLS PIN
• 2000-07-27 Listing Removed — MLS PIN
• 2000-02-28 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2000-02-28 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2000-02-08 Listed $80,000 MLS PIN
• 1999-09-14 Listed $85,000 Smart MLS
• 1999-09-09 Listed $85,000 Smart MLS
• 1989-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $3,144 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.