261 Forrest Dr N · Sardis, MS 38666

$75,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1990

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOBILE HOME 1.5 MILES FROM SARDIS DAM, PERFECT FOR RETIREES, OR WEEKEND HUNTING and FISHING LODGE.

Key facts

• Built 1990

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $882 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#235 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• North Panola School District (rural): math 2% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #129 of 130 in MS (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 94% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Panola County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Panola County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.42%
• DSCR: 3.24
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,000
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45 S Forrest Dr	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,231 (+1%)	15mo	$73,500	$60	65
1773 King Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,393 (+15%)	11mo	$174,500	$125	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $44,074
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.28×
• Total profit: $110,855
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38666

• Home prices YoY: -8.3%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,773 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $882

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $934	-5% $908	+0% $882	+5% $856	+10% $831
Rent	-10% $742	-5% $812	+0% $882	+5% $952	+10% $1,022
Rate	-1.0pp $920	-0.5pp $901	base $882	+0.5pp $863	+1.0pp $843

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2021-10-11
   historical
2. 2009-08-27
   listed $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,702
• − Management: −$1,702
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $9,989
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,397
• After-tax cash flow: $8,191/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Panola School District
• NCES district ID: 2803210
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $32,344
• Composite: 3.77/100
• National rank: #10066
• State rank: #129 of 130 in MS

Livability — Sardis

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #235
• US rank: #19654

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,258

Population outlook (Panola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,645 people
• By 2030: 31,477 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 28,894 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 26,108 · -20.0%
• By 2075: 19,292 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 12,787 · -60.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (54%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 54% White 42% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Panola

• 2024 margin: R (+14.8) · D 42.0% · R 56.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.4pp toward R · 2008: 6.5pp · 2024: -14.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.8 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+8.6 2008: D+6.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.45%
• Current HPI: 192.5985
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2021-10-11 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2009-08-27 Listed $79,900 MLSU