420 Chestnut St · Cumberland, MD 21502

$79,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,086 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1890 6,529 sqft lot Est $96k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CIRCA 1890 HOME LOCATED IN OLD NORTH CUMBERLAND - CLOSE TO TOWN AMENITIES AND MIDDLE SCHOOL - LOCATED ON A CORNER LOT - HOME NEEDS A LITTLE "TLC" BUT EQUITY AWAITS YOU

Key facts

• 6,529 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1890

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; On-street parking (available); Total of 1 garage/parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 100 amp electric service; Natural gas hot water; Heating fuel: natural gas and oil
• Home design: Detached structure; Two levels
• Construction: Brick and stone construction; Stone foundation; Asphalt roof; Double-pane windows; Building not winterized; Built (year per assessor)
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Patio(s); Above grade and below grade structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Drywall walls and ceilings; Living room; Dining room; Family room; Basement with connecting stairway; Patio(s)
• Laundry & utility: In-home laundry; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $523 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 6.7% in Cumberland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#64 in MD, #2,385 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,701 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.07%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $95,956
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
411 Pulaski St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,900 (-9%)	0mo	$66,000	$35	73
230 Bedford St	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,176 (+4%)	0mo	$35,000	$16	67
147 Polk St	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,024 (-3%)	2mo	$55,000	$27	66
611 Bedford St	0.38mi	3/2.0	2,228 (+7%)	2mo	$120,000	$54	66
418 Columbia St	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,804 (-14%)	6mo	$45,000	$25	62
17 N Chase St	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,964 (-6%)	0mo	$121,000	$62	58
517 Linden St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,872 (-10%)	5mo	$87,000	$46	58
121 Independence St	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,794 (-14%)	3mo	$45,000	$25	56
707 Columbia Ave	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,890 (-9%)	7mo	$170,000	$90	55
519 Shriver Ave	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,834 (-12%)	8mo	$175,000	$95	54
508 Marshall St	0.39mi	3/2.0	2,368 (+14%)	2mo	$86,000	$36	53
18 Greene St	0.68mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,275 (+9%)	5mo	$212,000	$93	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $27,193
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.36×
• Total profit: $97,598
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21502

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,291 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $533/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $523

Break-even live

Break-even rent $629

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $569	-5% $546	+0% $523	+5% $501	+10% $478
Rent	-10% $421	-5% $472	+0% $523	+5% $574	+10% $625
Rate	-1.0pp $564	-0.5pp $544	base $523	+0.5pp $503	+1.0pp $482

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
423 Furnace St Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.5	1440	$1,250	$0.87	44d	1	0.09mi
418 N Mechanic St Unit 1C Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,295	$0.86	44d	1	0.31mi
516 Bedford St Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,195	$0.80	44d	1	0.36mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,900 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    historical $94,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $533 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $702 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$169/yr (+$14/mo · 31.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$533
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,240
• − Management: −$1,240
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $5,283
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,268
• After-tax cash flow: $5,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegany County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400030
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,760
• Composite: 18.95/100
• National rank: #8854
• State rank: #18 of 24 in MD

Livability — Cumberland

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #64
• US rank: #2385

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cumberland, MD
• County: Allegany County · 41,015 people
• City population: 41,015
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 41,015
• Household income: $60,725
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,778 people
• By 2030: 66,766 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 62,784 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 59,179 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 50,732 · -26.2%
• By 2100: 40,837 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.3) · D 28.9% · R 69.2% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -25.9pp · 2024: -40.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.3 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+48.0 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+25.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.33%
• Current HPI: 258.6676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.88%
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Coming Soon $94,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $533 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.