502 N Circle Dr · Baytown, TX 77520

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1953 Fair condition 6,838 sqft lot $89/sqft · 46% below area Est $166k · 46% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity! This 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom single-family home in Baytown, TX offers approximately 1,008 sq. ft. of living space on a generous lot. The property features a bright, functional layout with spacious living areas and strong potential for renovation or rental income. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways. Ideal for investors looking to add value or expand their portfolio.

Key facts

• 6,838 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1953

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $269 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ashbel Smith El (math 28% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,740 of 4,322 statewide, top 64%, 582 students, 90% FRL); Horace Mann J H (math 34% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 811 students, 87% FRL); Lee H S (math 32% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,845 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 61% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 343 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.81%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,764
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -45.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
504 N Circle Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+5%)	2mo	$170,000	$161	86
603 Briarwood Dr	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,064 (+6%)	0mo	$145,000	$136	86
708 N Circle Dr	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,056 (+5%)	2mo	$189,990	$180	80
916 Parkway St	0.23mi	3/2.0	930 (-8%)	2mo	$170,000	$183	71
122 E Murrill Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,008 (0%)	2mo	$109,000	$108	69
704 E Adoue St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,012 (+0%)	13mo	$182,000	$180	53
110 E Pearce St	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (+5%)	16mo	$135,000	$128	52
315 E Adoue St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,036 (+3%)	12mo	$189,900	$183	49
804 E James St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+9%)	8mo	$185,000	$168	48
1004 Sunset Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,116 (+11%)	18mo	$187,000	$168	47
1205 S Alexander Dr	0.49mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,103 (+9%)	14mo	$199,990	$181	42
417 E Hunnicutt St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	944 (-6%)	12mo	$169,900	$180	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $402
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $13,897
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 15 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.6 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $170,000 ($150/sqft)
• Median days on market: 82 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +9.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77520

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 343
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,358 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$294 /mo · $3,527/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,017

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $320	-5% $295	+0% $269	+5% $244	+10% $218
Rent	-10% $162	-5% $215	+0% $269	+5% $323	+10% $376
Rate	-1.0pp $314	-0.5pp $292	base $269	+0.5pp $246	+1.0pp $222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
706 E Humble St Baytown, TX	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,226	$1.08	15d	1	0.14mi
301 Tri City Beach Rd Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	792	$1,350	$1.70	0d	1	0.30mi
105 E Adoue St Baytown, TX	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	93d	1	0.75mi
304 Stimson St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,675	$1.17	4d	1	0.76mi
419 W Cleveland St Baytown, TX	3.0	1.0	720	$1,425	$1.98	23d	1	0.83mi
707 Denby St Baytown, TX	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,450	$1.35	0d	1	0.94mi
1300 Madison St Baytown, TX	3.0	1.0	1316	$1,500	$1.14	93d	1	1.07mi
508 Forrest St Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	54d	1	1.18mi
1804 Chilton Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	1255	$1,720	$1.37	73d	1	1.22mi
607 Vista Ave Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,475	$1.20	93d	1	1.22mi
1502 Beaumont Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	1010	$1,000	$0.99	93d	1	1.31mi
1507 Barcelona Way Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,075	$1.00	93d	1	1.33mi
1510 Beaumont Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	1010	$1,100	$1.09	93d	1	1.33mi
1512 Beaumont Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1112	$1,200	$1.08	93d	1	1.34mi
510 Williams Ave Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	768	$1,599	$2.08	8d	9	1.36mi
516 William Ave Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	931	$1,250	$1.34	93d	1	1.36mi
1519 Barcelona Way Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,250	$0.94	93d	1	1.37mi
1525 Barcelona Way Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1112	$1,250	$1.12	73d	1	1.38mi
811 Barrymore Blvd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	54d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport1-car carport
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyOne-story (single level)Built in 1953Slab foundation
• Construction: Composition roofConstruction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floorTwo additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heatingCentral electric air conditioning
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $90,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $90,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-05-12
   listed $130,000 Active 424-char remark
4. 2026-02-02
   historical
5. 2026-02-01
   price $90,000
6. 2026-01-31
   listed $100,000 Active
7. 2025-10-28
   soldstatus
8. 2015-04-02
   soldstatus
9. 1995-04-28
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,527 · $294/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,527 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$3,527
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,303
• − Management: −$1,303
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $2,047
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$491
• After-tax cash flow: $2,737/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $25,200–$45,360 screening

This 3-bedroom single-family home in Baytown, TX has fair condition with moderate rehab needs. Key updates to paint the exterior and replace carpet would significantly enhance its value and appeal to both buyers and renters.

Deferred maintenance Est. $50,000–$150,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof) — Significant damage to the roof is visible, with missing shingles and exposed structure.
• Major Windows (windows) — The windows appear to be old and possibly not functioning properly, indicating a need for replacement.
• Major Electrical (electrical) — The interior lighting is dim and the electrical outlets and switches appear outdated, suggesting a need for an electrical upgrade.
• Major Plumbing (plumbing) — The bathroom appears to have issues with water damage, as evidenced by the peeling paint and the general state of disrepair.
• Major Exterior (exterior) — The exterior siding is peeling and the foundation appears to be in poor condition, indicating a need for extensive repairs.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered and needs repainting
• Major Kitchen — No photo, but based on similar homes, likely outdated
• Minor Bathroom — Basic fixtures, could be updated

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Improves living space and rental appeal ↑
• Both Update kitchen — Modernizes the home and increases value ↑
• Both Update bathroom — Enhances functionality and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ashbel Smith El F TX #2,740/4,322 Nat'l #28,175/41,679 Middle Horace Mann J H F TX #1,015/1,662 Nat'l #8,646/14,009 High Impact Early College H S C TX #333/1,632 Nat'l #4,077/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,355
• Household income: $54,278
• Rent vs Own: 47.8% rent · 52.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 30% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 43% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.36%
• Current HPI: 262.066
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport1-car carport
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyOne-story (single level)Built in 1953Slab foundation
• Construction: Composition roofConstruction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floorTwo additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heatingCentral electric air conditioning
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-04-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,527 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.