502 N Circle Dr · Baytown, TX 77520

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1953 6,838 sqft lot $89/sqft · 45% below area Est $163k · 45% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity! This 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom single-family home in Baytown, TX offers approximately 1,008 sq. ft. of living space on a generous lot. The property features a bright, functional layout with spacious living areas and strong potential for renovation or rental income. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways. Ideal for investors looking to add value or expand their portfolio.

Key facts

• 6,838 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1953

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One-story (single level); Built in 1953; Slab foundation
• Construction: Composition roof; Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $269 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.79%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,929
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -44.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
916 Parkway St	0.23mi	3/2.0	930 (-8%)	0mo	$170,000	$183	72
122 E Murrill Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,008 (0%)	1mo	$109,000	$108	71
317 Briarwood Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,052 (+4%)	21mo	$157,770	$150	62
704 E Adoue St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,012 (+0%)	11mo	$182,000	$180	54
110 E Pearce St	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (+5%)	14mo	$135,000	$128	53
1501 Wright Blvd	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (0%)	18mo	$209,000	$207	51
315 E Adoue St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,036 (+3%)	10mo	$189,900	$183	50
804 E James St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+9%)	7mo	$185,000	$168	50
1004 Sunset Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,116 (+11%)	17mo	$187,000	$168	48
209 Graham St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,022 (+1%)	18mo	$145,000	$142	45
1205 S Alexander Dr	0.49mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,103 (+9%)	13mo	$199,990	$181	44
417 E Hunnicutt St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	944 (-6%)	11mo	$169,900	$180	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $367
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $13,826
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77520

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,357 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$294 /mo · $3,527/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,017

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
301 Tri City Beach Rd Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	792	$1,350	$1.70	44d	1	0.30mi
105 E Adoue St Baytown, TX	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	44d	1	0.75mi
1300 Madison St Baytown, TX	3.0	1.0	1316	$1,500	$1.14	44d	1	1.07mi
508 Forrest St Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	5d	1	1.18mi
1804 Chilton Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	1255	$1,720	$1.37	24d	1	1.22mi
607 Vista Ave Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,475	$1.20	44d	1	1.22mi
2500 E James Ave Baytown, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$1,408	$1.29	1d	18	1.28mi
1502 Beaumont Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	1010	$1,000	$0.99	44d	1	1.31mi
1507 Barcelona Way Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,075	$1.00	44d	1	1.33mi
1510 Beaumont Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	1010	$1,100	$1.09	44d	1	1.33mi
1512 Beaumont Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1112	$1,200	$1.08	44d	1	1.34mi
510 Williams Ave Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	699	$1,599	$2.29	2d	5	1.36mi
516 William Ave Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	931	$1,250	$1.34	44d	1	1.36mi
1519 Barcelona Way Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,250	$0.94	44d	1	1.37mi
1525 Barcelona Way Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1112	$1,250	$1.12	24d	1	1.38mi
811 Barrymore Blvd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	5d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $90,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $90,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-05-12
   listed $130,000 Active 424-char remark
4. 2026-02-02
   historical
5. 2026-02-01
   price $90,000
6. 2026-01-31
   listed $100,000 Active
7. 2025-10-28
   soldstatus
8. 2015-04-02
   soldstatus
9. 1995-04-28
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,527 · $294/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,527 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$3,527
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,303
• − Management: −$1,303
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $2,040
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$490
• After-tax cash flow: $2,732/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,355
• Household income: $54,278
• Rent vs Own: 47.8% rent · 52.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1559.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 30% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 43% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.36%
• Current HPI: 262.066
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-04-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,527 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.