Siesta Plan · Sebastian, FL 32958

$320,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,864 sqft · SingleFamily · 310 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Private dining room
• Versatile den
• Kitchen pantry

Tags

• VERSATILE DEN
• PRIVATE DINING ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• EXPANSIVE GREAT ROOM
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• KITCHEN PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $320,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Plan named Siesta; New construction plan
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,864

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms

🏗️ New construction. The $320,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $385,848.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $321k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-514 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#89 in FL, #1,421 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, health & safety A; Watch: schools D+, amenities D-.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 412 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,725/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 646% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 310 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,494 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 310 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.71%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $385,848
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1043 Landsdowne Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,821 (-2%)	1mo	$366,000	$201	83
457 Candle Ave	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,828 (-2%)	3mo	$370,000	$202	80
422 Del Monte Rd Unit A&B	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,858 (-0%)	0mo	$318,000	$171	73
830 Cain St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-3%)	2mo	$320,000	$178	63
432 Biscayne Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,793 (-4%)	2mo	$379,000	$211	62
311 Seaside Ter	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,851 (-1%)	4mo	$466,500	$252	61
802 Lorca Ave	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,828 (-2%)	3mo	$379,000	$207	60
117 Harbor Point Dr	0.41mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,989 (+7%)	2mo	$535,000	$269	59
493 Quarry Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,658 (-11%)	0mo	$305,000	$184	58
626 Braddock St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,936 (+4%)	3mo	$250,910	$130	57
402 Watercrest St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,711 (-8%)	2mo	$410,000	$240	48
352 Quarry Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,659 (-11%)	1mo	$350,000	$211	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-86,094
• Equity at exit: $57,531

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-76,986
• Equity at exit: $33,361

Cash invested: $108,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32958

• Home prices YoY: -13.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 412
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,725 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,023
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$482 /mo · $5,788/yr
• Insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$572
• Net cashflow: $-514

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,375

Max offer price $311,499

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,462
• Closing costs: $11,575
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
832 Carnation Dr Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,800	$2.00	13d	1	0.26mi
486 Biscayne Ln Sebastian, FL	4.0	2.0	1769	$2,250	$1.27	13d	1	0.47mi
324 Seaside Ter Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	2322	$2,200	$0.95	13d	1	0.61mi
246 S Wimbrow Dr Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1364	$3,000	$2.20	13d	1	0.63mi
351 Del Monte Rd Unit B Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,900	$1.34	13d	1	0.63mi
351 Del Monte Rd Unit B Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,900	$1.34	20d	1	0.63mi
810 Jamaica Ave Sebastian, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$3,000	$1.62	13d	1	0.77mi
865 Beard Ave Sebastian, FL	4.0	2.0	1934	$3,600	$1.86	20d	1	0.80mi
1110 Barber St Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1324	$2,200	$1.66	13d	1	0.81mi
462 Lloyd St Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,400	$1.53	20d	1	0.92mi
406 Easy St Sebastian, FL	4.0	2.0	1874	$2,100	$1.12	20d	1	1.06mi
1192 Croquet Ln Sebastian, FL	4.0	2.0	2012	$2,640	$1.31	13d	1	1.15mi
1343 Shoreline Cir Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	2222	$4,000	$1.80	20d	1	1.20mi
632 Bayfront Ter Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1885	$2,350	$1.25	13d	1	1.22mi
834 Dolores St Sebastian, FL	3.0	1.0	1253	$1,600	$1.28	13d	1	1.44mi
422 Avocado Ave Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1698	$3,900	$2.30	20d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $320,990 Active 310 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,990 Active 309 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,990 Active 308 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,990 Active 307 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,990 Active 306 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $320,990 Active 304 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,990 Active 303 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $320,990 Active 301 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,990 Active 300 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $320,990 Active 299 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,990 Active 298 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $320,990 Active 295 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,699
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,613
• − Property taxes: −$5,788
• − Insurance: −$1,929
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,616
• − Management: −$2,616
• − Depreciation: −$11,225
• Taxable loss: −$13,088
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,141
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,025/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River
• NCES district ID: 1200930
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,597
• Composite: 42.45/100
• National rank: #3218
• State rank: #35 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sebastian

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #1421

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute B+ Cost of living A- Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sebastian, FL
• County: Indian River County · 143,738 people
• City population: 30,023
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,023
• Household income: $66,840
• Rent vs Own: 14.5% rent · 85.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 646.0

Population outlook (Indian River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,104 people
• By 2030: 172,869 · +4.7%
• By 2040: 185,640 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 194,465 · +17.8%
• By 2075: 211,115 · +27.9%
• By 2100: 211,781 · +28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Indian River

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 36.0% · R 63.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+22.3 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.85%
• Current HPI: 330.1691
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.22%
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B