18383 James Madison Hwy · Lake Monticello, VA 22974

$479,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,263 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2002 4.59 ac lot Est $545k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spread out and enjoy the convenience of this private, well maintained, Colonial with an attached 2 car garage on over 4 ½ acres! Here you'll be 4 minutes to Zions Crossroads with easy access to both Charlottesville and Richmond. This home rests squarely on a fantastic lot and is tucked off the road down a private paved driveway. Inside you'll enjoy a floorplan that flows comfortably; including a spacious living room, dining room, recently updated kitchen with gas range and granite countertops, a breakfast nook, and access to the ample deck and back yard. Upstairs you will find the primary suite along with a delightful third floor bonus room that can be used as a 5th bedroom, office, nursery or large studio. The 3 additional bedrooms on the second level share access to a spacious hall bath. There's plenty of room for animals, a garden and even a pool if one desires. No HOA, Fiber Internet, Invisible pet fence.

Key facts

• 4.59 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $480k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-549 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $383k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (35.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $311k (35.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.6% in Lake Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#284 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fluvanna County Public School District (rural): math 61% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #34 of 131 in VA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Carysbrook Elementary (math 57% / reading 64%, grade B-, #529 of 1,108 statewide, top 48%, 472 students, 43% FRL); Fluvanna Middle (math 65% / reading 70%, grade A-, #98 of 342 statewide, top 30%, 763 students, 42% FRL); Fluvanna County High (math 60% / reading 76%, grade B, #180 of 319 statewide, top 57%, 1,488 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 23% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 138 units permitted in Fluvanna County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $51k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$82k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $310,626 (35.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.91%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $545,383
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18383 James Madison Hwy	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,378 (+5%)	1mo	$510,000	$214	91
133 Pine Forest Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,380 (+5%)	0mo	$720,000	$303	74
5985 Union Mills Rd	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,198 (-3%)	13mo	$530,000	$241	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $226,238
• Equity at exit: $432,332

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $693,454
• Equity at exit: $932,340

Cash invested: $134,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22974

• Home prices YoY: 12.0%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,106 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,517
• Tax from tax record: −$287 /mo · $3,439/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$652
• Net cashflow: $-549

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,802

Max offer price $382,871

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-278	-5% $-413	+0% $-549	+5% $-685	+10% $-821
Rent	-10% $-795	-5% $-672	+0% $-549	+5% $-427	+10% $-304
Rate	-1.0pp $-308	-0.5pp $-427	base $-549	+0.5pp $-674	+1.0pp $-800

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,975
• Closing costs: $14,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $479,900 Active
3. 2026-04-13
   historical $479,900
4. 2022-07-14
   soldstatus $432,000
5. 2022-07-13
   soldstatus $432,000 Sold 930-char remark

   Show marketing remark (930 chars)

   Spread out and enjoy the convenience of this private, well maintained, Colonial with an attached 2 car garage on over 4 ½ acres! Here you'll be 4 minutes to Zions Crossroads with easy access to both Charlottesville and Richmond. This home rests squarely on a fantastic lot and is tucked off the road down a private paved driveway. Inside you'll enjoy a floorplan that flows comfortably; including a spacious living room, dining room, recently updated kitchen with gas range and granite countertops, a breakfast nook, and access to the ample deck and back yard. Upstairs you will find the primary suite along with a delightful third floor bonus room that can be used as a 5th bedroom, office, nursery or large studio. The 3 additional bedrooms on the second level share access to a spacious hall bath. There's plenty of room for animals, a garden and even a pool if one desires. No HOA, Fiber Internet, Invisible pet fence.

6. 2022-06-14
   status Pending 930-char remark

   Show marketing remark (930 chars)

   Spread out and enjoy the convenience of this private, well maintained, Colonial with an attached 2 car garage on over 4 ½ acres! Here you'll be 4 minutes to Zions Crossroads with easy access to both Charlottesville and Richmond. This home rests squarely on a fantastic lot and is tucked off the road down a private paved driveway. Inside you'll enjoy a floorplan that flows comfortably; including a spacious living room, dining room, recently updated kitchen with gas range and granite countertops, a breakfast nook, and access to the ample deck and back yard. Upstairs you will find the primary suite along with a delightful third floor bonus room that can be used as a 5th bedroom, office, nursery or large studio. The 3 additional bedrooms on the second level share access to a spacious hall bath. There's plenty of room for animals, a garden and even a pool if one desires. No HOA, Fiber Internet, Invisible pet fence.

7. 2022-06-05
   listed $432,000 Active 930-char remark

   Show marketing remark (930 chars)

   Spread out and enjoy the convenience of this private, well maintained, Colonial with an attached 2 car garage on over 4 ½ acres! Here you'll be 4 minutes to Zions Crossroads with easy access to both Charlottesville and Richmond. This home rests squarely on a fantastic lot and is tucked off the road down a private paved driveway. Inside you'll enjoy a floorplan that flows comfortably; including a spacious living room, dining room, recently updated kitchen with gas range and granite countertops, a breakfast nook, and access to the ample deck and back yard. Upstairs you will find the primary suite along with a delightful third floor bonus room that can be used as a 5th bedroom, office, nursery or large studio. The 3 additional bedrooms on the second level share access to a spacious hall bath. There's plenty of room for animals, a garden and even a pool if one desires. No HOA, Fiber Internet, Invisible pet fence.

8. 2009-10-02
   listed $249,900
9. 2009-10-01
   historical
10. 2009-04-16
    soldstatus $228,000
11. 2008-10-09
    listed $249,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,439 · $287/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,935 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$496/yr (+$41/mo · 14.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,275
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,882
• − Property taxes: −$3,439
• − Insurance: −$2,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,982
• − Management: −$2,982
• − Depreciation: −$13,961
• Taxable loss: −$15,370
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,689
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fluvanna County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101380
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,601
• Composite: 57.6/100
• National rank: #1065
• State rank: #34 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Monticello

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #10173

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,123

Population outlook (Fluvanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,237 people
• By 2030: 27,607 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 28,075 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 28,019 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 28,058 · +3.0%
• By 2100: 26,124 · -4.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 14% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fluvanna

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.3) · D 46.4% · R 52.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: -6.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.3 2020: R+4.7 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+6.2 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 37.70%
• Current HPI: 351.8003
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+92.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — CAAR
• 2026-04-15 Listed $479,900 CAAR
• 2026-04-13 Coming Soon $479,900 CAAR
• 2022-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $432,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-13 Sold (MLS) $432,000 CAAR
• 2022-06-14 Pending — CAAR
• 2022-06-05 Listed $432,000 CAAR
• 2009-10-02 Listed $249,900 CAAR
• 2009-10-01 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2009-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $228,000 Public Records
• 2008-10-09 Listed $249,900 CAAR

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,439 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.