4711 Lombardy Fire Trl · Houston, TX 77449

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,587 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 6,651 sqft lot $180/sqft · at area comps Est $299k · at est. $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming single-story D.R. Horton home built in 2020, located at 4711 Lombardy Fire Trail in the desirable master-planned community of Ventana Lakes, Katy, TX. This move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers 1,587 sq ft of open-concept living space on a 6,652 sq ft lot. Enjoy a bright, airy layout perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. Ventana Lakes features resort-style amenities including a clubhouse with fitness center, community pool and splash pad, playgrounds, picnic areas, scenic lakes, and walking trails. Families benefit from top-rated Katy ISD schools (Bethke Elementary nearby), plus quick access to the Grand Parkway, I-10, shopping, and dining. Ideal for first-time buyers or those seeking low-maintenance living in a vibrant, family-friendly neighborhood. Don't miss this exceptional value in Katy!

Key facts

• 6,651 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2020

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-450 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (27.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 744 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,574 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.76%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,399
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -4.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22818 Theodoli Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,630 (+3%)	4mo	$309,000	$190	69
22623 Loreto Costa Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,756 (+11%)	1mo	$296,000	$169	65
4727 Alba Ash Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,758 (+11%)	14mo	$305,000	$173	62
4523 Verona Hills Ln	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,801 (+14%)	5mo	$305,000	$169	61
22715 Ginosa Trl	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,801 (+14%)	11mo	$317,990	$177	58
4403 Salerno Gulf Way	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,780 (+12%)	6mo	$294,000	$165	58
4311 Nervesa Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,766 (+11%)	1mo	$280,000	$159	54
4315 Isoletta Ct	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,777 (+12%)	6mo	$280,000	$158	42
4214 Fornari Ln	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,786 (+12%)	4mo	$305,000	$171	41
22927 San Giorgio Ct	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,810 (+14%)	14mo	$309,900	$171	37
22608 Theodoli Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,805 (+14%)	14mo	$300,000	$166	36
22503 Theodoli Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (+13%)	13mo	$325,000	$181	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-60,334
• Equity at exit: $65,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-95,848
• Equity at exit: $65,276

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 744
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,403 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$664 /mo · $7,962/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-450

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,972

Max offer price $205,574

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4411 Andorno Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2094	$2,221	$1.06	24d	1	0.21mi
22743 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	3.0	1200	$2,309	$1.92	43d	1	0.21mi
22841 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,249	$1.54	5d	1	0.23mi
22713 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,419	$1.45	12d	1	0.23mi
22737 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,649	$1.41	43d	1	0.23mi
22851 Terazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	1740	$2,239	$1.29	1d	1	0.23mi
22629 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,239	$1.53	5d	1	0.24mi
22855 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,399	$1.44	12d	1	0.24mi
22627 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,239	$1.53	5d	1	0.24mi
22719 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,559	$1.28	17d	1	0.24mi
22611 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	43d	1	0.25mi
22717 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,629	$1.30	5d	1	0.25mi
22613 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,569	$1.37	43d	1	0.25mi
22615 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	43d	1	0.26mi
22808 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,529	$1.26	17d	1	0.26mi
22865 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,759	$1.37	15d	1	0.27mi
22722 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,559	$1.27	17d	1	0.27mi
22617 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,279	$1.56	43d	1	0.27mi
22720 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,559	$1.28	17d	1	0.27mi
22738 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,539	$1.36	19d	1	0.27mi
22718 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,439	$1.30	5d	1	0.28mi
22716 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,439	$1.31	5d	1	0.29mi
22626 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,699	$1.35	43d	1	0.29mi
22728 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,369	$1.42	24d	1	0.29mi
22628 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,659	$1.32	15d	1	0.29mi
22624 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	43d	1	0.30mi
22712 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,179	$1.49	24d	1	0.30mi
22622 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,569	$1.37	43d	1	0.30mi
22824 Frassino Pl Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,629	$1.30	2d	1	0.31mi
22616 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,539	$1.36	15d	1	0.32mi
22614 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,539	$1.36	12d	1	0.33mi
22843 Castello Lakes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2036	$2,148	$1.06	22d	1	0.33mi
23030 Cunningham Falls Trl Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1213	$2,900	$2.39	5d	244	0.66mi
23100 Clay Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	988	$2,299	$2.33	2d	35	0.67mi
23100 Clay Rd Unit 144208 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,595	$1.33	43d	1	0.67mi
23100 Clay Rd Unit 210014 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1149	$1,600	$1.39	43d	1	0.67mi
5103 Visionary Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1692	$2,121	$1.25	2d	9	0.74mi
21919 Clay Rd Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1658	$3,574	$2.16	1d	1	1.01mi
21919 Clay Rd Unit 424 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,500	$1.38	5d	1	1.04mi
21919 Clay Rd Unit 21976 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,492	$1.37	3d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolgym

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $285,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-04-17
    status Active 857-char remark

    Show marketing remark (857 chars)

    Welcome to this charming single-story D.R. Horton home built in 2020, located at 4711 Lombardy Fire Trail in the desirable master-planned community of Ventana Lakes, Katy, TX. This move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers 1,587 sq ft of open-concept living space on a 6,652 sq ft lot. Enjoy a bright, airy layout perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. Ventana Lakes features resort-style amenities including a clubhouse with fitness center, community pool and splash pad, playgrounds, picnic areas, scenic lakes, and walking trails. Families benefit from top-rated Katy ISD schools (Bethke Elementary nearby), plus quick access to the Grand Parkway, I-10, shopping, and dining. Ideal for first-time buyers or those seeking low-maintenance living in a vibrant, family-friendly neighborhood. Don't miss this exceptional value in Katy!

15. 2026-04-16
    historical 857-char remark

    Show marketing remark (857 chars)

    Welcome to this charming single-story D.R. Horton home built in 2020, located at 4711 Lombardy Fire Trail in the desirable master-planned community of Ventana Lakes, Katy, TX. This move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers 1,587 sq ft of open-concept living space on a 6,652 sq ft lot. Enjoy a bright, airy layout perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. Ventana Lakes features resort-style amenities including a clubhouse with fitness center, community pool and splash pad, playgrounds, picnic areas, scenic lakes, and walking trails. Families benefit from top-rated Katy ISD schools (Bethke Elementary nearby), plus quick access to the Grand Parkway, I-10, shopping, and dining. Ideal for first-time buyers or those seeking low-maintenance living in a vibrant, family-friendly neighborhood. Don't miss this exceptional value in Katy!

16. 2026-04-16
    historical $285,000 857-char remark

    Show marketing remark (857 chars)

    Welcome to this charming single-story D.R. Horton home built in 2020, located at 4711 Lombardy Fire Trail in the desirable master-planned community of Ventana Lakes, Katy, TX. This move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers 1,587 sq ft of open-concept living space on a 6,652 sq ft lot. Enjoy a bright, airy layout perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. Ventana Lakes features resort-style amenities including a clubhouse with fitness center, community pool and splash pad, playgrounds, picnic areas, scenic lakes, and walking trails. Families benefit from top-rated Katy ISD schools (Bethke Elementary nearby), plus quick access to the Grand Parkway, I-10, shopping, and dining. Ideal for first-time buyers or those seeking low-maintenance living in a vibrant, family-friendly neighborhood. Don't miss this exceptional value in Katy!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,962 · $664/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,962 · $664/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,834
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$7,962
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,307
• − Management: −$2,307
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$10,274
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,466
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,930/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready single-story home in Ventana Lakes, Katy, TX, offers a bright, airy layout with good condition throughout. It's ready for a new owner to move in and enjoy the community amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers
• Resale Kitchen appliances and cabinetry maintenance — Modern appliances and well-maintained cabinetry improve the home's appeal
• Resale Bathroom updates — Fresh bathrooms can attract more buyers
• Resale Flooring maintenance — Well-maintained flooring can improve the home's overall appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances and cabinetry maintenance — Modern appliances and well-maintained cabinetry improve the home's appeal ↑
• Resale Bathroom updates — Fresh bathrooms can attract more buyers ↑
• Resale Flooring maintenance — Well-maintained flooring can improve the home's overall appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Coming Soon $285,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,962 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.