1839 Road 5502 · Dayton, TX 77327

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 816 sqft · Manufactured public records · 127 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 10,018 sqft lot $184/sqft · 10% below area Est $167k · 10% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this recently remodeled home located in a quiet and well-established community. Priced under $200,000, this property offers exceptional value and is perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors. Conveniently situated close to major freeways, shopping malls, and schools, this home provides easy access to everything you need while still offering a peaceful neighborhood setting. The front of the property is gated, adding an extra layer of safety and privacy for you and your family. With its recent updates and prime location, this move-in-ready home is a fantastic opportunity you don’t want to miss.

Key facts

• Gated front
• Prime location
• Remodeled home

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• QUIET COMMUNITY
• GATED FRONT
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.23%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,098
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -10.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-13,353
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $6,869
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,483 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,106/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,296

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,900 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-05-02
    price $149,900 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Welcome to this recently remodeled home located in a quiet and well-established community. Priced under $200,000, this property offers exceptional value and is perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors. Conveniently situated close to major freeways, shopping malls, and schools, this home provides easy access to everything you need while still offering a peaceful neighborhood setting. The front of the property is gated, adding an extra layer of safety and privacy for you and your family. With its recent updates and prime location, this move-in-ready home is a fantastic opportunity you don’t want to miss.

15. 2026-04-22
    price $155,000 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Welcome to this recently remodeled home located in a quiet and well-established community. Priced under $200,000, this property offers exceptional value and is perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors. Conveniently situated close to major freeways, shopping malls, and schools, this home provides easy access to everything you need while still offering a peaceful neighborhood setting. The front of the property is gated, adding an extra layer of safety and privacy for you and your family. With its recent updates and prime location, this move-in-ready home is a fantastic opportunity you don’t want to miss.

16. 2026-02-11
    listed $159,900 Active 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Welcome to this recently remodeled home located in a quiet and well-established community. Priced under $200,000, this property offers exceptional value and is perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors. Conveniently situated close to major freeways, shopping malls, and schools, this home provides easy access to everything you need while still offering a peaceful neighborhood setting. The front of the property is gated, adding an extra layer of safety and privacy for you and your family. With its recent updates and prime location, this move-in-ready home is a fantastic opportunity you don’t want to miss.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,106 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$637/yr (+$53/mo · 30.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,801
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,106
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,424
• − Management: −$1,424
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$660
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$159
• After-tax cash flow: $1,932/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This recently remodeled home offers a good condition with modern updates and a prime location. It is move-in ready and presents a great opportunity for investors.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing and increase its value
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing and increase its value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $159,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+26.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,106 · -30.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.