415 Broadway Ave NE · Red Lake Falls, MN 56750

$107,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,028 sqft · SingleFamily · 212 Days on market

Built 1900 431 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1900
• Listed 211 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $107k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $107k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#142 in MN, #3,078 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Red Lake Falls Public School District (rural): math 46% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #156 of 301 in MN (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Red Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $740 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Red Lake County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $107k implies a 174% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $94,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.97%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $142
• Equity at exit: $15,954

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $22,730
• Equity at exit: $9,251

Cash invested: $29,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56750

• Home prices YoY: -20.5%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,314 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$561
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,902/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $967

Max offer price $107,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,750
• Closing costs: $3,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $107,000 Active 212 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $107,000 Active 211 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $107,000 Active 210 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $107,000 Active 209 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $107,000 Active 207 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $107,000 Active 206 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $107,000 Active 203 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $107,000 Active 202 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $107,000 Active 201 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $107,000 Active 200 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $107,000 Active 197 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $107,000 Active 196 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $107,000 Active 195 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $107,000 Active 194 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $107,000 Active 193 DOM
16. 2025-11-18
    listed $107,000 Active
17. 2010-01-19
    soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,902 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,902 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,769
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,994
• − Property taxes: −$1,902
• − Insurance: −$535
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,262
• − Management: −$1,262
• − Depreciation: −$3,113
• Taxable income: $1,702
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$409
• After-tax cash flow: $2,878/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Lake Falls Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2730450
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,088
• Composite: 40.3/100
• National rank: #3756
• State rank: #156 of 301 in MN

Livability — Red Lake Falls

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #3078

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Red Lake Falls, MN
• Population (ZIP): 2,280

Population outlook (Red Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,902 people
• By 2030: 3,807 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 3,587 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 3,382 · -13.3%
• By 2075: 3,091 · -20.8%
• By 2100: 2,881 · -26.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 20% Lithuanian 18% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Red Lake

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 30.4% · R 67.5% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.4pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+34.7 2016: R+32.1 2012: R+2.5 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.35%
• Current HPI: 137.2603
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+174.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-18 Listed $107,000 GFAAR
• 2010-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,902 · +28.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.