3381 Mogollon Dr · Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85933

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 26 Days on market

Built 1980 9,583 sqft lot Est $271k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape to the cool pines of Overgaard with this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath singlewide manufactured home on a spacious 0.22-acre lot. This cozy retreat offers comfortable living with an inviting deck for outdoor relaxation and a convenient storage shed for tools and toys. Whether you're seeking a weekend getaway or a full-time mountain escape, this property delivers peace, affordability, and the perfect setting to enjoy Arizona's high country.

Key facts

• Inviting deck
• Storage shed
• Spacious lot

Tags

• INVITING DECK
• STORAGE SHED
• SPACIOUS LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.22 acres; Road maintenance by county
• HOA & community: No HOA; Subdivision: Zane Grey Acres

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric with individual meter; Metered water (AZ Water); Navopache water service available; Propane available (tank leased); Septic tank (sewer); Power available
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Single wide
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Pitched shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Covered deck; Property partly fenced; Private adjoining property; Tall pines on lot; Street paved; Trees on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar; Living/dining room combo
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: Full bathroom with tub/shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: No fireplace; Carpet and linoleum flooring
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in hallway

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($388/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mountain Meadows Primary (math 70% / reading 50%, grade B-, #148 of 1,109 statewide, top 15%, 143 students, 43% FRL); Mogollon Jr High School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #57 of 218 statewide, top 27%, 77 students, 0% FRL); Mogollon High School (math 30% / reading 30%, grade F, #116 of 381 statewide, top 31%, 167 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 50% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 258 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $205k implies a 193% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,422 (10.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.68%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $271,040
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3144 Tonto Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+14%)	5mo	$309,990	$242	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-31,132
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-24,346
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85933

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,834 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $174	-5% $103	+0% $32	+5% $-39	+10% $-109
Rent	-10% $-113	-5% $-40	+0% $32	+5% $105	+10% $177
Rate	-1.0pp $136	-0.5pp $84	base $32	+0.5pp $-21	+1.0pp $-75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $205,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $205,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $205,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $205,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $205,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $205,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $205,000 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 4 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 3 DOM
19. 2026-05-23
    listed $205,000 Active
20. 2020-02-12
    soldstatus $70,000
21. 2011-10-04
    historical
22. 2011-01-29
    listed $69,900
23. 2004-11-18
    historical
24. 2004-03-18
    listed $64,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,011
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,761
• − Management: −$1,761
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$3,058
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$734
• After-tax cash flow: $1,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392)
• NCES district ID: 0400026
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,916
• Composite: 40.42/100
• National rank: #3727
• State rank: #51 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Heber-Overgaard

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heber-Overgaard, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 3,989

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Italian 7% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.51%
• Current HPI: 358.021
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+217.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Relisted — WMMLS
• 2026-05-23 Delisted — WMMLS
• 2026-05-23 Listed $205,000 WMMLS
• 2020-02-12 Sold (MLS) $70,000 WMMLS
• 2011-10-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2011-01-29 Listed $69,900 ARMLS
• 2004-11-18 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-03-18 Listed $64,500 ARMLS