263 Morgan Rd · Jacksonville, AR 72076

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,304 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1985 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add their personal touch! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home is being sold "as-is" and offers potential for a second bathroom. Recent updates include a new heat pump and updated plumbing. Situated on a spacious 1 acre lot with an outbuilding, there is plenty of room for storage or hobbies. Please note: the home will require repairs, including flooring--3 rooms are currently down to subfloor and the flooring throughout is uneven. With some work, this property could be a great investment or project home!

Key facts

• New heat pump
• Refrigerator conveys
• Vent-a-hood

Tags

• NEW HEAT PUMP
• UPDATED PLUMBING
• ELECTRIC STOVE
• VENT-A-HOOD
• REFRIGERATOR CONVEYS
• WASHER CONVEYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Cash financing considered

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pads
• Utilities: Public water; Septic system; Electric provided by co-op; Insulated windows and doors
• Home design: Frame construction; Approximately 1 acre lot; Lot dimensions approx. 154 x 309 x 154 x 311
• Construction: Frame exterior; Crawl space foundation; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Partially fenced yard; Outside storage area; Gravel road access; Level lot in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Electric range; Refrigerator stays
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Other (see remarks)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Washer connection; washer stays; Dryer connection (electric); dryer stays; Ceiling fans; Breakfast bar; Kitchen counters in Formica; Sheetrock and paneling walls; sheetrock ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer connections present; washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $518 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 5.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#231 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Cabot School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #29 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 154 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $75k implies a 477% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.57%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,568
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
222 Morgan Rd	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,277 (-2%)	24mo	$150,000	$117	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $20,922
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.91×
• Total profit: $61,125
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72076

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,311 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $518

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $569	-5% $543	+0% $518	+5% $492	+10% $466
Rent	-10% $414	-5% $466	+0% $518	+5% $569	+10% $621
Rate	-1.0pp $555	-0.5pp $537	base $518	+0.5pp $498	+1.0pp $478

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1811 Neely St Unit 1811 Jacksonville, AR	3.0	1.0	996	$825	$0.83	44d	1	1.15mi
708 Lehman Dr Jacksonville, AR	3.0	1.5	1075	$1,150	$1.07	14d	1	1.20mi
609 Sorrells Dr Jacksonville, AR	3.0	1.0	1133	$1,195	$1.05	14d	1	1.28mi
1101 Lehman Dr Jacksonville, AR	3.0	1.5	1344	$1,200	$0.89	14d	1	1.28mi
1409 Southern St Jacksonville, AR	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,050	$1.00	44d	1	1.37mi
89 Belair Loop Jacksonville, AR	3.0	2.0	1093	$1,450	$1.33	21d	1	1.40mi
58 Wright Cir Jacksonville, AR	4.0	2.5	1468	$1,450	$0.99	14d	1	1.44mi
66 Wright Cir Jacksonville, AR	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,595	$1.28	24d	1	1.44mi
1501 Angie Ct Jacksonville, AR	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,595	$1.23	21d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $75,000
17. 2026-03-30
    listed $90,000 New Listing
18. 1986-03-07
    soldstatus $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,735
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,259
• − Management: −$1,259
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $5,334
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,280
• After-tax cash flow: $4,930/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cabot School District
• NCES district ID: 0503750
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,993
• Composite: 39.66/100
• National rank: #3912
• State rank: #29 of 238 in AR

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #231
• US rank: #17378

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pulaski County · 372,764 people
• City population: 38,437
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 38,437
• Household income: $54,379
• Rent vs Own: 46.6% rent · 53.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1733.0

Population outlook (Lonoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,072 people
• By 2030: 80,673 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 84,977 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 87,778 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 91,398 · +17.1%
• By 2100: 87,858 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lonoke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.2% · R 75.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.8 2016: R+53.3 2012: R+50.9 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.51%
• Current HPI: 201.6405
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.07%
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+476.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $75,000 CARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $90,000 CARMLS
• 1986-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $25 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.