1561 Union Grove Church Rd · Auburn, GA 30011

$249,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1985 1.76 ac lot Est $387k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT INVESTMENT! Private country ranch on a large, landscaped 1.758 acre lot. Covered front porch & rear patio, overlooks the wooded backyard. This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, has amazing potential. Brick wood burning fireplace. Spacious unfinished basement with side entry garage. A second, air conditioned garage & workshop, is located behind the house. Hydraulic car lift installed. Quiet, well established area where the neighbors still wave as you drive by. Short distance to public park & paved trails. Plenty of retail, restaurants, & I-85 only minutes away.

Key facts

• 1.76 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1985

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Three garage spaces; Four carport spaces; Total parking for seven vehicles; Covered parking and driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; 110V and 220V electric service; Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available
• Home design: One-level home; Resale property; Concrete roof; Brick/mortar foundation
• Construction: Cement siding construction; Concrete roof; Brick/mortar foundation; Satellite dish
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Awnings; Accessible approach with ramp

Interior

• Kitchen: Solid surface counters; Stained cabinets; Country kitchen with keeping room
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Master suite on main level; Roommate floor plan
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Two main-level bathrooms; One lower-level half bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: His and hers closets; Wood-framed windows; One fireplace located in the great room; Attic and basement space (basement bath stubbed)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in common area and in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $308 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (3.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.8% in Auburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#41 in GA, #4,693 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Barrow County (rural): math 29% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #77 of 174 in GA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Auburn Elementary School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #633 of 1,228 statewide, top 54%, 766 students, 61% FRL); Apalachee High School (math 13% / reading 35%, grade F, #203 of 424 statewide, top 48%, 1,894 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,427 units permitted in Barrow County in 2024 (311 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Barrow County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $250k implies a 230% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,076 (3.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.29%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $386,784
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1517 Country Ct	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,852 (-2%)	1mo	$330,000	$178	71
1597 Union Grove Ch Rd	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,720 (-9%)	1mo	$1,000,000	$581	68
122 Moriah Woods Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,928 (+2%)	1mo	$400,000	$207	68
501 Wages Rd	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,642 (-13%)	0mo	$330,000	$201	64
1506 Country Ct	0.28mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,956 (+3%)	15mo	$347,000	$177	61
61 Deer Wood Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,988 (+5%)	8mo	$399,900	$201	56
491 Glen Terrace Rd N	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (-10%)	4mo	$345,000	$203	55
332 Wyngate Rd	0.63mi	3/3.0	1,872 (-1%)	13mo	$387,000	$207	54
1503 Country Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,643 (-13%)	18mo	$282,000	$172	52
173 Deer Wood Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	2,014 (+6%)	7mo	$410,000	$204	51
1469 Harmony Grove Church Rd	0.47mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,756 (-7%)	13mo	$365,000	$208	46
1626 Saddlecreek Rd	0.70mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,688 (-11%)	9mo	$354,900	$210	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-22,131
• Equity at exit: $37,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $629
• Equity at exit: $21,572

Cash invested: $69,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30011

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,411 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,308
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,209/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $308

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,021

Max offer price $249,500

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,375
• Closing costs: $7,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2097 Blackberry Cir Auburn, GA	4.0	3.0	2213	$2,411	$1.09	5d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $249,500 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,500 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   remarks 567-char remark

   Show marketing remark (579 chars)

   GREAT INVESTMENT! Private country ranch on a large, landscaped 1.758 acre lot. Covered front porch & rear patio, overlooks the wooded backyard. This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, has amazing potential. Brick wood burning fireplace. Spacious unfinished basement with side entry garage. A second, air conditioned garage & workshop, is located behind the house. Hydraulic car lift installed. Quiet, well established area where the neighbors still wave as you drive by. Short distance to public park & paved trails. Plenty of retail, restaurants, & I-85 only minutes away.

4. 2026-06-04
   listed $249,500 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (579 chars)

   GREAT INVESTMENT! Private country ranch on a large, landscaped 1.758 acre lot. Covered front porch & rear patio, overlooks the wooded backyard. This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, has amazing potential. Brick wood burning fireplace. Spacious unfinished basement with side entry garage. A second, air conditioned garage & workshop, is located behind the house. Hydraulic car lift installed. Quiet, well established area where the neighbors still wave as you drive by. Short distance to public park & paved trails. Plenty of retail, restaurants, & I-85 only minutes away.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,209 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,295 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$86/yr (+$7/mo · 3.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,929
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,976
• − Property taxes: −$2,209
• − Insurance: −$1,248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,314
• − Management: −$2,314
• − Depreciation: −$7,258
• Taxable loss: −$390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$94
• After-tax cash flow: $3,790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barrow County
• NCES district ID: 1300290
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $52,082
• Composite: 27.63/100
• National rank: #6921
• State rank: #77 of 174 in GA

Livability — Auburn

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #41
• US rank: #4693

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Barrow County · 133,377 people
• City population: 21,624
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 21,624
• Household income: $86,402
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 234.0

Population outlook (Barrow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 86,670 people
• By 2030: 92,039 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 101,992 · +17.7%
• By 2050: 110,075 · +27.0%
• By 2075: 124,017 · +43.1%
• By 2100: 127,579 · +47.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Barrow

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.5% · R 70.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+43.1 2016: R+50.4 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.30%
• Current HPI: 212.2609
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+229.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $249,500 FMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listed $249,500 GAMLS
• 2026-06-03 Coming Soon $249,500 GAMLS
• 2026-06-03 Coming Soon $249,500 FMLS
• 1990-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $75,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,209 · +252.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.