Bellflower Plan · Waxahachie, TX 75165

$509,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,527 sqft · SingleFamily · 965 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Bellflower is a thoughtfully designed two-story home that combines open-concept living with flexible spaces to fit your lifestyle. With four spacious bedrooms and three and a half bathrooms, this plan offers room to grow and the comfort of intentional design in every detail. At the heart of the home, an open kitchen and family room create a welcoming space for everyday living and effortless entertaining. A dedicated study at the front of the home provides a quiet retreat for work or creativity, while the flexible dining room can easily transform into a private media room - whatever suits your needs. Upstairs, a large game room anchors the secondary bedrooms, giving everyone their own space to relax and recharge. The primary suite is a true sanctuary with a spa-inspired bath and an oversized walk-in closet. Designed with Bloomfield Homes' signature blend of function and style, the Bellflower offers modern convenience, timeless appeal, and the flexibility to make it your own.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 964 days

🏗️ New construction. The $509,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $535,381.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $510k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $371k (27.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $325k (36.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $325k (36.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#71 in TX, #2,592 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: commute F.
• Waxahachie ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #253 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Felty El (math 60% / reading 50%, grade C, #602 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 570 students, 34% FRL); Howard J H (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 758 students, 49% FRL); Waxahachie H S (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 2,963 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 1444 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,248/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 965 days — a 12% lower offer ($449k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $324,832 (36.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 965 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.08%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $535,381
• List price: $509,990
• Delta: -4.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
202 Memory Ln	0.18mi	4/3.5	3,485 (-1%)	2mo	$519,990	$149	88
214 Memory Ln	0.19mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,558 (+1%)	4mo	$574,236	$161	80
115 Tetrad Cir	0.41mi	4/3.5	3,435 (-3%)	1mo	$531,018	$155	76
182 Memory Ln	0.19mi	4/3.0	3,280 (-7%)	3mo	$491,236	$150	76
603 Polaris Ln	0.21mi	4/3.0	3,285 (-7%)	1mo	$519,192	$158	75
119 Tetrad Cir	0.42mi	4/4.0	3,479 (-1%)	4mo	$570,415	$164	73
219 Memory Ln	0.23mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,696 (+5%)	4mo	$541,196	$146	71
120 Tetrad Cir	0.40mi	4/3.0	3,280 (-7%)	1mo	$520,377	$159	67
1132 Apple Grove Ln	0.36mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,269 (-7%)	3mo	$489,999	$150	64
825 Broadhead Rd	0.34mi	4/3.0	3,013 (-15%)	1mo	$565,000	$188	57
133 Spring Grove Dr	0.42mi	4/4.0	3,997 (+13%)	3mo	$950,000	$238	54
462 Wintergreen Dr	0.69mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,209 (-9%)	4mo	$545,000	$170	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-157,601
• Equity at exit: $79,827

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-224,586
• Equity at exit: $46,290

Cash invested: $149,907 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 51 active · 23 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.3 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $523,706 ($155/sqft)
• Median days on market: 370 d
• This list price: 39% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -2.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75165

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 1444
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,248 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,808
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$669 /mo · $8,031/yr
• Insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $-1,134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,683

Max offer price $371,329

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-764	-5% $-949	+0% $-1,134	+5% $-1,319	+10% $-1,504
Rent	-10% $-1,390	-5% $-1,262	+0% $-1,134	+5% $-1,005	+10% $-877
Rate	-1.0pp $-864	-0.5pp $-998	base $-1,134	+0.5pp $-1,272	+1.0pp $-1,414

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $133,845
• Closing costs: $16,061
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1107 Wheatland Ter Waxahachie, TX	4.0	2.5	2602	$3,000	$1.15	184d	1	0.66mi
247 Half Moon Dr Waxahachie, TX	3.0	2.0	2457	$3,200	$1.30	10d	1	0.88mi
213 Nocona Dr Waxahachie, TX	5.0	2.0	2516	$9,750	$3.88	10d	1	0.95mi
118 Eagle Feather Dr Waxahachie, TX	4.0	2.5	2574	$2,795	$1.09	7d	1	1.14mi
204 Bay St Waxahachie, TX	4.0	3.0	2724	$2,520	$0.93	41d	1	1.44mi
508 Bush Ave Waxahachie, TX	5.0	3.5	3269	$3,750	$1.15	160d	1	1.46mi
1767 Shumard St Waxahachie, TX	5.0	4.0	4498	$4,900	$1.09	65d	1	1.48mi
1767 Shumard St Waxahachie, TX	5.0	4.5	4498	$4,900	$1.09	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $509,990 Active 965 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $509,990 Active 964 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $509,990 Active 963 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $509,990 Active 962 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $509,990 Active 961 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $509,990 Active 959 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $509,990 Active 958 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $509,990 Active 957 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $509,990 Active 956 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $509,990 Active 955 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $509,990 Active 954 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $509,990 Active 953 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $509,990 Active 952 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $509,990 Active 951 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $509,990 Active 950 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $509,990 Active 949 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $509,990 Active 948 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $509,990 Active 947 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $509,990 Active 946 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $509,990 Active 945 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $509,990 Active 944 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $509,990 Active 943 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $509,990 Active 942 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $509,990 Active 941 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $509,990 Active 940 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $509,990 Active 939 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $509,990 Active 938 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $509,990 Active 937 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $509,990 Active 936 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $509,990 Active 935 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $509,990 Active 934 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $509,990 Active 933 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $509,990 Active 932 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $509,990 Active 931 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $509,990 Active 930 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $509,990 Active 929 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $509,990 Active 928 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $509,990 Active 927 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $509,990 Active 926 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $509,990 Active 925 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $509,990 Active 924 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $509,990 Active 923 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $509,990 Active 922 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $509,990 Active 921 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $509,990 Active 920 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $509,990 Active 919 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $509,990 Active 918 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $509,990 Active 917 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $509,990 Active 916 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $509,990 Active 915 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,980
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,990
• − Property taxes: −$8,031
• − Insurance: −$2,677
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,118
• − Management: −$3,118
• − Depreciation: −$15,575
• Taxable loss: −$23,529
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,647
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home in Waxahachie, TX, is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a modern kitchen, three and a half bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Updating light fixtures — Modern light fixtures can improve both the aesthetic and functionality of the home. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Felty El C TX #602/4,322 Nat'l #9,637/41,679 Middle Howard J H D- TX #540/1,662 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Waxahachie H S F TX #730/1,632 Nat'l #7,572/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waxahachie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844730
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,434
• Composite: 39.14/100
• National rank: #4034
• State rank: #253 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Waxahachie

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #2592

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ellis County · 194,556 people
• City population: 67,417
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,513
• Household income: $86,391
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

---

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 14% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.58%
• Current HPI: 255.0247
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.40%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $540,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-11 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-04-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-03-08 Listed $523,990 Zillow