404 Mount Vernon Dr · Lexington-Fayette, KY 40391

$139,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · Manufactured · 87 Days on market

Built 1989 6,098 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One Owner,1989 14x72 mobile home with 12x16 Florida room attached on large open lot with no neighbor to the front. 7x10 deck,10x12 storage shed. Very nicely maintained with water softener system & drinking water system. Great home on one of the best lots in the park!

Key facts

• Large corner lot
• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1989

Tags

• ATTACHED ROOM ADDITION
• LARGE CORNER LOT
• GENERAC BACKUP GENERATOR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Yorktown subdivision, Clark County

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured house; One level
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Block foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Lot recorded as 0.14 acres (public records); Public water; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Accessible approach with ramp; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Clark County (town): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #64 of 165 in KY (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Strode Station Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #348 of 676 statewide, top 55%, 506 students, 60% FRL); Robert D. Campbell Jr. High (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #73 of 217 statewide, top 36%, 820 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 291 active listings in the ZIP; 160 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (61 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clark County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $139k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $130,659 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.26%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-5,528
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $16,880
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40391

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,370 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $333/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,031

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 68 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    price $139,000
18. 2026-03-23
    listed $149,000 Active
19. 2025-11-10
    soldstatus $65,000
20. 2018-04-05
    soldstatus $34,600
21. 2005-04-29
    soldstatus $36,000 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    One Owner,1989 14x72 mobile home with 12x16 Florida room attached on large open lot with no neighbor to the front. 7x10 deck,10x12 storage shed. Very nicely maintained with water softener system & drinking water system. Great home on one of the best lots in the park!

22. 2005-04-29
    soldstatus $36,000

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    One Owner,1989 14x72 mobile home with 12x16 Florida room attached on large open lot with no neighbor to the front. 7x10 deck,10x12 storage shed. Very nicely maintained with water softener system & drinking water system. Great home on one of the best lots in the park!

23. 2005-04-10
    historical 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    One Owner,1989 14x72 mobile home with 12x16 Florida room attached on large open lot with no neighbor to the front. 7x10 deck,10x12 storage shed. Very nicely maintained with water softener system & drinking water system. Great home on one of the best lots in the park!

24. 2005-03-07
    listed $39,000 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    One Owner,1989 14x72 mobile home with 12x16 Florida room attached on large open lot with no neighbor to the front. 7x10 deck,10x12 storage shed. Very nicely maintained with water softener system & drinking water system. Great home on one of the best lots in the park!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $333 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,195 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$863/yr (+$72/mo · 259.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$333
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,315
• − Management: −$1,315
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $955
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$229
• After-tax cash flow: $2,986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clark County
• NCES district ID: 2101200
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $47,282
• Composite: 29.63/100
• National rank: #6469
• State rank: #64 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lexington-Fayette

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Clark County · 36,796 people
• City population: 321,882
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 36,796
• Household income: $64,144
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 854.0

Population outlook (Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,849 people
• By 2030: 35,616 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 34,727 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 33,195 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 29,439 · -17.9%
• By 2100: 24,744 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Clark

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.3) · D 31.6% · R 66.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.1pp · 2024: -35.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.3 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+30.5 2008: R+25.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.24%
• Current HPI: 283.7839
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+256.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $139,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $149,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $34,600 Public Records
• 2005-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-29 Sold (MLS) $36,000 ImagineMLS
• 2005-04-10 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2005-03-07 Listed $39,000 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $333 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.