SINCLAIR Plan · Hockley, TX 77447

$354,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,075 sqft · SingleFamily · 183 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With over 3,000 square feet, the Sinclair boasts abundant space for private living and entertaining. This plan welcomes you with a charming columned front porch, leading you into a welcoming foyer. Directly off the foyer, a secluded study boasts a walk-in closet. Beyond the foyer, you'll love an open-concept living area that features an inviting kitchen-boasting a center island and corner pantry-an elegant dining area and a spacious great room. Anchoring the home, a convenient downstairs primary suite features its own attached bath and an expansive walk-in closet. Additional main-floor highlights include a valet entry off the 2-bay garage and a patio off the dining area. On the second floor, three secondary bedrooms-each with a walk-in closet-surround a versatile loft space.

Key facts

• Secluded study
• Corner pantry
• Columned front porch

Tags

• COLUMNED FRONT PORCH
• SECLUDED STUDY
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• CENTER ISLAND
• CORNER PANTRY
• ELEGANT DINING AREA

🏗️ New construction. The $354,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $418,415.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $355k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-950 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (20.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (30.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (30.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2097 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($312k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,823 (30.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.73%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $418,415
• List price: $354,990
• Delta: -15.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
521 Wax Myrtle Way	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,482 (-19%)	2mo	$329,990	$133	62
125 Rising Cedar Ln	0.25mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,498 (-19%)	4mo	$310,990	$124	53
25102 Tennoaks Ln	0.98mi	4/3.0	3,010 (-2%)	8mo	$460,000	$153	53
31202 N High Meadow Cir	0.95mi	4/3.0	3,118 (+1%)	21mo	$835,000	$268	44
24999 Shady Oak Dr	1.02mi	4/3.0	2,778 (-10%)	10mo	$449,950	$162	39
25643 Cathy Dr	0.68mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,916 (-5%)	21mo	$224,900	$77	37
25088 Forest Cir	0.95mi	4/2.5	2,645 (-14%)	4mo	$465,000	$176	34
25050 Shady Oak Dr	1.11mi	4/2.5	2,672 (-13%)	11mo	$495,000	$185	30
24120 Pinewood Valley Dr	1.01mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,586 (-16%)	20mo	$875,000	$338	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-135,447
• Equity at exit: $62,387

10-year hold

• IRR: -75.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.91×
• Total profit: $-223,511
• Equity at exit: $36,177

Cash invested: $117,156 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 21 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 42.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $345,990 ($130/sqft)
• Median days on market: 128 d
• This list price: 67% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2097
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,458 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,194
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$523 /mo · $6,276/yr
• Insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-950

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,660

Max offer price $281,011

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-660	-5% $-805	+0% $-950	+5% $-1,094	+10% $-1,239
Rent	-10% $-1,144	-5% $-1,047	+0% $-950	+5% $-852	+10% $-755
Rate	-1.0pp $-739	-0.5pp $-843	base $-950	+0.5pp $-1,058	+1.0pp $-1,168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,604
• Closing costs: $12,552
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $354,990 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $354,990 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $354,990 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $354,990 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $354,990 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $354,990 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $354,990 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $354,990 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $354,990 Active 170 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $354,990 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $354,990 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $354,990 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $354,990 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $354,990 Active 164 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $354,990 Active 161 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $354,990 Active 160 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $354,990 Active 159 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $354,990 Active 158 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $354,990 Active 157 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $354,990 Active 156 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $354,990 Active 155 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $354,990 Active 154 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $354,990 Active 153 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $354,990 Active 151 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $354,990 Active 150 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $354,990 Active 149 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $354,990 Active 148 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $354,990 Active 147 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $354,990 Active 146 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $354,990 Active 145 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $354,990 Active 144 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $354,990 Active 143 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $354,990 Active 142 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $354,990 Active 141 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $354,990 Active 140 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $354,990 Active 138 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $354,990 Active 135 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $354,990 Active 132 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $354,990 Active 131 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $354,990 Active 130 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $354,990 Active 129 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $354,990 Active 127 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $354,990 Active 123 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $354,990 Active 122 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $354,990 Active 121 DOM
46. 2026-06-04
    days on market $354,990 Active 118 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    days on market $354,990 Active 117 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    days on market $354,990 Active 116 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $354,990 Active 115 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $354,990 Active 114 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,438
• − Property taxes: −$6,276
• − Insurance: −$2,092
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,360
• − Management: −$2,360
• − Depreciation: −$12,172
• Taxable loss: −$19,199
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,608
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,787/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained, move-in-ready home with a good condition score and modern features is ready for a new owner or tenant. Potential buyers and tenants can appreciate the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home technology can improve convenience and attract both buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting more buyers and tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evelyn Turlington El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 60,772 people
• City population: 25,231
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $374,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-21 Listed $374,990 Zillow