1419 Custer St · Petersburg, VA 23803

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1900 7,649 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR SPECIAL! Great opportunity to invest in this 2 bedroom, 1 bath home. Inquire today!

Key facts

• 7,649 sq ft lot
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $637 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 4.5% in Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#413 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Petersburg City Public School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #131 of 131 in VA (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 118 units permitted in Petersburg city in 2024 (84 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Petersburg County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 5.9% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 45% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.11%
• DSCR: 2.43
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
742 Kirkham St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,621 (+1%)	2mo	$263,000	$162	69
936 Weaver Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (-1%)	9mo	$192,500	$122	69
38 Spring Ct	0.21mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,673 (+5%)	11mo	$240,000	$143	67
688 Pegram St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,665 (+4%)	3mo	$95,000	$57	59
1330 Halifax St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,732 (+8%)	11mo	$254,500	$147	58
1232 Halifax St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,487 (-7%)	13mo	$285,000	$192	56
1217 Arlington St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,408 (-12%)	4mo	$225,000	$160	48
751 Jones St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,450 (-9%)	3mo	$240,000	$166	43
746 St John St	0.38mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,824 (+14%)	6mo	$290,000	$159	43
710 Wesley St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,450 (-9%)	6mo	$242,000	$167	36
1748 Youngs Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,383 (-14%)	4mo	$235,000	$170	35
623 Pegram St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,360 (-15%)	8mo	$265,000	$195	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.45% appreciation · 5.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $48,527
• Equity at exit: $31,020

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.56×
• Total profit: $132,365
• Equity at exit: $42,818

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23803

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,501 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $813/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $637

Break-even live

Break-even rent $695

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1131 Hawk St Petersburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	44d	1	0.20mi
838 S Jones St Unit B Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1296	$1,100	$0.85	44d	1	0.59mi
1640 Johnson Rd Petersburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	972	$1,289	$1.33	2d	11	0.79mi
1649 Delmar Ave Petersburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1248	$1,700	$1.36	2d	1	0.86mi
2125 Dupuy Rd Petersburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1063	$1,299	$1.22	2d	1	1.11mi
115 Pine St Unit 115 Petersburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,462	$1.04	44d	1	1.18mi
712 W Washington St Unit B Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1209	$1,250	$1.03	24d	1	1.26mi
2350 Hill St Unit H Petersburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1193	$1,775	$1.49	2d	1	1.28mi
110 Grigg St Petersburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,600	$1.33	2d	1	1.34mi
1823 Brandon Ave Petersburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1153	$1,600	$1.39	17d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $813 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $813 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 45% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,012
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$813
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,441
• − Management: −$1,441
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $6,659
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,598
• After-tax cash flow: $6,045/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Petersburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102910
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,362
• Composite: 28.78/100
• National rank: #6670
• State rank: #131 of 131 in VA

Livability — Petersburg

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #413
• US rank: #17309

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Petersburg, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 63,420
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 42,012
• Household income: $57,813
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2485.0

Population outlook (Petersburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,488 people
• By 2030: 29,771 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 28,401 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 27,279 · -10.5%
• By 2075: 25,877 · -15.1%
• By 2100: 24,288 · -20.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Petersburg

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+72.8) · D 85.8% · R 13.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 72.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+72.8 2020: D+76.5 2016: D+77.0 2012: D+80.4 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Current HPI: 480.5365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.89%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $85,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $813 · +32.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.