13 Ronnie Dr · Homer C Jones, NM 87045

$105,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,364 sqft · SingleFamily · 325 Days on market

Built 1963 ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1963
• Listed 325 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 covered parking spaces (2 total spaces)
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential cabin; One-level / single-story
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Natural vegetation; Irregular lot; Workshop (other structure)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric cooling; Fireplace insert heating; No central heating listed
• Interior features: Blinds on windows; Fireplace with an insert

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $251 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Gallup-Mckinley Cty Schools (rural): math 17% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #54 of 95 in NM (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in McKinley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• McKinley County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 325 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 325 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.25%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $28,593
• Equity at exit: $47,213

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.70×
• Total profit: $79,324
• Equity at exit: $72,760

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87045

• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,101 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $289/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $783

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $311	-5% $281	+0% $251	+5% $221	+10% $192
Rent	-10% $164	-5% $208	+0% $251	+5% $295	+10% $338
Rate	-1.0pp $304	-0.5pp $278	base $251	+0.5pp $224	+1.0pp $196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-08
   price $105,000
3. 2025-11-26
   price $113,000
4. 2025-06-10
   listed $119,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $289 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $840 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: +$551/yr (+$46/mo · 191.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$289
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,057
• − Management: −$1,057
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $1,345
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$323
• After-tax cash flow: $2,691/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gallup-Mckinley Cty Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501110
• Math proficiency: 17% —
• Reading proficiency: 30% —
• Median HH income: $30,298
• Composite: 22.01/100
• National rank: #13541
• State rank: #54 of 95 in NM

Livability — Homer C Jones

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Homer C Jones, NM
• Population (ZIP): 2,439

Population outlook (McKinley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,386 people
• By 2030: 94,451 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 107,369 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 119,937 · +35.7%
• By 2075: 148,818 · +68.4%
• By 2100: 160,771 · +81.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 1.00)
• Race & ethnicity: Native American 99%

Political lean MEDSL · McKinley

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 60.7% · R 36.2% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.4pp toward R · 2008: 43.9pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+38.6 2016: D+39.8 2012: D+46.6 2008: D+43.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — NMMLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $105,000 NMMLS
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $113,000 NMMLS
• 2025-06-10 Listed $119,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

-4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $289 · -9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.