5604 Mulvey St · Houston, TX 77020

$305,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2025 2,278 sqft lot $151/sqft · 6% below area Est $323k · 6% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 5604 Mulvey St, an amazing 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths and 2 car garage new construction strategically located as part of the re-shaping transformation of Houston’s Fifth Ward. This stunning home has a lot to offer: The gated great size front yard will greet all your guests. The first floor boast a kitchen-dining area combination with a great open concept to the family room ideal for those countless and incredible gatherings with your friends and family. The amazing kitchen has quartz countertops, stylish backsplash, stainless steel appliances (including gas range stove), shaker cabinets, island, pantry and more. The covered back patio is perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Upstairs features a spacious primary suite, spa-like bath with modern vanities, soaking tub & frameless shower. It also has a convenient private double wide driveway. Conveniently located minutes from Downtown & East River. Close to the Heights, and EADO. No HOA. Price hard to beat for a home this size.

Key facts

• Spa-like bath
• Open concept
• Gated front yard

Tags

• GATED FRONT YARD
• KITCHEN DINING AREA
• OPEN CONCEPT
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• SPA-LIKE BATH
• PRIVATE DOUBLE WIDE DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($365/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 59% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,527/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 969% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $85k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,660 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.43%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,821
• List price: $305,000
• Delta: -2.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5408 Mulvey St	0.10mi	3/2.5	2,000 (-1%)	5mo	$348,900	$174	86
1266 Finnigan Dr	0.61mi	3/3.5	1,988 (-1%)	2mo	$375,000	$189	68
1264 Finnigan Dr	0.61mi	3/3.5	1,988 (-1%)	3mo	$375,000	$189	67
5308 San Juan St	0.62mi	3/2.5	2,030 (+1%)	6mo	$415,000	$204	61
2303 Wipprecht St	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,764 (-12%)	2mo	$329,000	$187	52
4501 Rawley St	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,924 (-5%)	6mo	$399,990	$208	51
4434 Oats St	0.64mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,166 (+7%)	3mo	$419,900	$194	50
4703 Oats St Unit B	0.48mi	3/3.0	1,768 (-12%)	6mo	$359,000	$203	50
4432 Oats St	0.65mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,166 (+7%)	4mo	$429,900	$198	49
4436 Oats St	0.65mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,166 (+7%)	4mo	$439,900	$203	49
5620 Lucille St	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,836 (-9%)	6mo	$99,000	$54	42
2207 Dan St	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,736 (-14%)	5mo	$339,000	$195	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $171,267
• Equity at exit: $274,768

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.97×
• Total profit: $509,719
• Equity at exit: $592,548

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77020

• Home prices YoY: 29.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,527 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,869/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,488

Max offer price $305,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2105 Sam Wilson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1416	$6,750	$4.77	43d	1	0.04mi
5605 Mulvey St Unit 1019610P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1410	$4,237	$3.00	3d	1	0.04mi
5217 Noble St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1897	$2,750	$1.45	43d	1	0.17mi
4712 Rawley St Unit a Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,070	$1.38	20d	1	0.44mi
4712 Rawley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1501	$2,045	$1.36	20d	1	0.44mi
4706 Hershe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2283	$3,300	$1.45	43d	1	0.49mi
4509 Courtney St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1456	$1,150	$0.79	22d	1	0.75mi
1023 Hahlo St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1434	$1,775	$1.24	5d	1	0.76mi
1222 Upton St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2055	$2,600	$1.27	43d	1	0.79mi
3503 Wyrick St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1746	$2,850	$1.63	43d	1	0.87mi
4109 Hare St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1913	$6,950	$3.63	43d	1	1.14mi
4109 Hare St Unit 1019559P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1905	$6,852	$3.60	7d	1	1.14mi
1513 Cage St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,550	$1.06	43d	1	1.27mi
1307 Bayou St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1814	$2,400	$1.32	7d	1	1.46mi
1303 Bayou St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1869	$3,200	$1.71	43d	1	1.46mi
3410 Baer St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2040	$3,500	$1.72	43d	1	1.47mi
3419 Gillespie St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2168	$2,300	$1.06	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $305,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $305,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $305,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $305,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $314,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $314,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $314,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $314,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $314,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $314,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $314,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $314,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-05-17
    listed $314,000 Active 1009-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

    Welcome to 5604 Mulvey St, an amazing 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths and 2 car garage new construction strategically located as part of the re-shaping transformation of Houston’s Fifth Ward. This stunning home has a lot to offer: The gated great size front yard will greet all your guests. The first floor boast a kitchen-dining area combination with a great open concept to the family room ideal for those countless and incredible gatherings with your friends and family. The amazing kitchen has quartz countertops, stylish backsplash, stainless steel appliances (including gas range stove), shaker cabinets, island, pantry and more. The covered back patio is perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Upstairs features a spacious primary suite, spa-like bath with modern vanities, soaking tub & frameless shower. It also has a convenient private double wide driveway. Conveniently located minutes from Downtown & East River. Close to the Heights, and EADO. No HOA. Price hard to beat for a home this size.

14. 2026-05-17
    historical

    Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

    Welcome to 5604 Mulvey St, an amazing 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths and 2 car garage new construction strategically located as part of the re-shaping transformation of Houston’s Fifth Ward. This stunning home has a lot to offer: The gated great size front yard will greet all your guests. The first floor boast a kitchen-dining area combination with a great open concept to the family room ideal for those countless and incredible gatherings with your friends and family. The amazing kitchen has quartz countertops, stylish backsplash, stainless steel appliances (including gas range stove), shaker cabinets, island, pantry and more. The covered back patio is perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Upstairs features a spacious primary suite, spa-like bath with modern vanities, soaking tub & frameless shower. It also has a convenient private double wide driveway. Conveniently located minutes from Downtown & East River. Close to the Heights, and EADO. No HOA. Price hard to beat for a home this size.

15. 2026-03-05
    price $314,000
16. 2026-02-27
    listed $338,000 Active
17. 2026-02-19
    historical
18. 2026-01-22
    price $340,000
19. 2026-01-02
    listed $342,000 Active
20. 2025-12-30
    historical
21. 2025-10-28
    listed $350,000 Active
22. 2025-10-16
    historical
23. 2025-07-16
    listed $350,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,869 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,582 · $465/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,712/yr (+$226/mo · 94.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,319
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$2,869
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,426
• − Management: −$2,426
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$4,883
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,172
• After-tax cash flow: $1,537/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,686
• Household income: $50,119
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 969.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Black 24% Two or more races 22% White 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 59% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.64%
• Current HPI: 246.5578
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Listed $314,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $314,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $338,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $340,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $342,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Listed $350,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+35.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,869 · -3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.